Thread by @gauravsabnis

WOW! This is quite a thorough report!

Question for RSS is how long they keep their wagon hitched to him.

They brought him on par with & then ahead of Ambani. But Ambanis afaik don't do outright fraud, just regular cutthroat crony capitalism. This has political downsides.

https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1618077612680818688

If the Indian govt doesn't come out strongly as a neutral regulator and arbiter, and instead acts like Adani sympathizers, it sends a massive signal to the global financial community and WILL hit investments. Cos the stuff in this report is well beyond business as usual.

I know I know the official line from Adanis and many on the Sanghi side stanning him is that this is some biased report, hitjob, same old whataboutery, and sure, that will win you cable news or Whatsapp arguments.

But the financial community will take note. Esp rating agencies.

The electoral bonds system means that sangh doesn't really need Adani even if he is a big source currently. They can create a dozen new Adanis using the same tactics. given the pretense they put on of no scams despite this open scam, they will be wise to crack down on it.

It will also give him a rare real boast for 2024 instead of random 2047 promises. That tho libruls said he was pals with Adani, see see, he held him accountable too. So expect a Modi v Adani battle in coming months, with Ambanis getting richer off popcorn derivatives.

Just read the report. And you'll see why it pretty much forces Modi into a position where he either signals to the global financial community that #NewIndia has no standards above loyalty. Or he brings Adani down to the ground and targets him.

Not to mention this.

From the report coming out, the house of cards looks so creaky that 2008 Bear & Lehman would have looked healthier. It could crash the Indian economy AND Indian stock markets.

https://twitter.com/deepster82/status/1618455320669605888?t=Ne5q7OLWTMQvRgv6ZDyVTg&s=19

Yup. And when the dust clears, Mukesh stands there stronger than ever. Say what you will about the Ambanis, but they actually make and sell real stuff of real value.

This Adani crap is historically brazenly bad. And obviously unsustainable!

https://twitter.com/neeleshnaik/status/1618456175833407488?t=Ne5q7OLWTMQvRgv6ZDyVTg&s=19

And even tho in current times, Adani-Ambani have been hyphenated thanks to Modi, remember that Reliance success and valuations pre-date Modi by decades. From polyester to phones to electricity to even IPL, Ambanis have a track record of results. Adani wealth is pump pump pump!

No one can deny that Adani came from almost nowhere to 3rd richest very much thanks to his closeness to Modi. His company shares jumped in April 2014 when polls predicted a clear Modi win. They are now 20 times as much. Without much of a customer base or any real results.

After reading this report, I'm wondering if @SDNYnews has jurisdiction to go after a lot of this. 🤔🤔

Nothing brings down scammers like ambitious, zealous, and powerful @DOJCrimDiv agents.

https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1618077612680818688?t=Ne5q7OLWTMQvRgv6ZDyVTg&s=19

There's crony capitalism and then there's outright fraud! And nothing hurts crony capitalism more than outright fraud going unpunished, cos crony capitalism is a long con. It works on favorable market access and/or monopoly in businesses that have real customers out there.

You let Adani get away with all this and the structure comes crashing down. The system is built on Ambani types not Adani types. On Ranbaxy types not Ramdev types. On Rajat Sharma types not Chavhanke types.

Kuchh toh standard rakhna mangtaay. Even China knows that.

Oh yeah, I saw that and laughed. Like i said, it'll play well on Whatsapp and on cable news and with random chaman taplus on Twitter.

But to the larger financial world, it was such a transparent sign of panic. History shows how such things end.

https://twitter.com/finmetaverse/status/1618460778713198592?t=R6bZwPfhQFlY0J5Z8Ppepg&s=19

As @aliusmani said last month, the Ambani rise benefited a lot of people, from retail customers to retail investors to thousands of small businesses and even cricket fans! There's something real in there.

Adani rise hasn't really helped anyone else except Adani & BJP.

Reliance, even though it has jumped 5x in Modi years, still has a P/E ratio of 25! That is a solid P/E ratio!

You know Adani's?

Over 300!! Kuchh bhi!!

The crash is inevitable. The question is who gets in front of it and who gets fooled by fake patriotism.

Yeah, history has taught us that scammers are either punished by ambitious politicians or careful financial investors, generally at taxpayer expense.

https://twitter.com/finmetaverse/status/1618465541412524038?t=5HlKQGYNLRgu-yxcdjqHRA&s=19

Corporate governance's mother sister

This one report has like at least a dozen different scams enabled or ignored or often even rescued by the Modi govt. And yet through Whatsapp repetition, they keep insisting, no scams.

This is why Adani is very different from Ambani. Only half of reliance holdings are promoter holdings. The other half is FIIs, MFs, retail investors, which pretty much keep Reliance a business working for shareholders in general.

This holding structure always enables fraud.

Random "proud of" sentiment ✅
Lapetofying Tatas, Reliance, Mahindra for borrowed credibility ✅
Reducing corporate governance and fraud protection to "India first" patriotism ✅

Template to get away with anything in #NewIndia. Wrap up everything that stinks in a 🇮🇳, sit back.

Btw the report is not a "paid hitjob" tho it is for-profit short selling activism.

Hindenburg's business model is not pay-for-play. They have openly said they have taken a short position in Adani (like it did with Nikola). Their business model is shorting frauds with research.

Why the report is harder to ignore than NYT or WSJ ones. These are folks saying.

- We make money to investigating frauds, taking short positions in them, then releasing our reports and cleaning up when accountability eventually happens.
- We are shorting Adani. Here's why.

They literally put their own money where their mouth is. And the markets know this.

Why Hindenburg reports have so much impact. They have skin in the game.

It's not a conflict of interest when it is literally their stated strategy, with all these caveats up front.

Markets judge reports by their content & their content has been pretty rigorous & solid so far.

The Adani report especially so. Just read it.

https://twitter.com/avikpram/status/1618540345972916224?t=POqTu4CRjVHvLqsYvaVkrw&s=19

If you read the Hindenburg report about #AdaniGroup, it is pretty much a rigorous collection of facts and numbers and old arrests and news reports and fines and suchlike.

Wonder if the government will ask Twitter to block that as well.

Activist Short-Selling is a real and serious thing.

They are no different than short sellers, except they publish their research.