1/ The Wagner Group is facing difficulties finding new recruits after suffering huge casualties in eastern Ukraine, according to reports. It's said to be trying to find recruits in Central Asian prisons and possibly even merging with Ruslan Kadyrov's Chechen forces. ⬇️ 
2/ According to the brother of Paul Whelan, the ex-US Marine currently imprisoned in Russia, Wagner has attempted to recruit more inmates without much success. The prisoners are well aware of the use of their fellow convicts as cannon fodder and now mostly refuse to go.
3/ "Everyone else has a clear picture of what happens to prisoners who go to fight the Kremlin's war in Ukraine," David Whelan writes in his most recent update. He says that while in the last round of recruitment Wagner managed to recruit 115 men, this time only 8 joined.
4/ This is corroborated by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. A source tells it: "Where to get people is a big headache. There are already 'crumbs' coming from the zones [penal colonies], whom no one wants."
5/ Instead, Wagner is reportedly looking to Russia's large immigrant community and the prisons of Central Asia for new recruits:
"The PMC is working with migrants, trying to bring people from Central Asian zones, including those with combat experience.
"The PMC is working with migrants, trying to bring people from Central Asian zones, including those with combat experience.
6/ "However, Central Asian mercenaries are the wrong way round. Instructors say they are not suitable. Only a large mobilisation and a decision to hand over 'refuseniks' to PMCs can help. And without a big mobilisation, even handing over the refuseniks will not be a saviour.
7/ "Who will find so many of them? And we need tens of thousands of people, with literally daily replenishment."
It's likely a sign of how bad things are now that the source says that a merger of Wagner with the Kadyrovites has been discussed.
It's likely a sign of how bad things are now that the source says that a merger of Wagner with the Kadyrovites has been discussed.
8/ The source is doubtful that this would work, however: "It is really hard to believe in such a thing. The Kadyrovites have separate structures, the PMCs have separate ones. Everything is different."
9/ "Many veterans don't much like the Kadyrovites, the Kadyrovites don't much like former criminals. But the main thing is that the styles of warfare are so different that they can't be combined. And the Kadyrovites are a set of units, and Wagner is an army.
10/ "In short, there's not even a clue as to how to combine them."
11/ According to a VChK-OGPU source, Wagner's leadership is concerned that the Russian government will try to reduce Yevgeny Prigozhin's influence by "attempts to cosplay Wagner and breed private military companies", 'dilute' its identity and steal its best personnel.
12/ However, Wagner intends to resist with its usual brutal disciplinary methods: "Wagner's security forces are already saying that termination of the contract to switch to another PMC will be seen as treason, with all its consequences." /end
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