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More from @Vincent_Ledvina

Vincent Ledvina

@Vincent_Ledvina

Apr 14

Heads up aurora chasers! Tomorrow, we could see aurora down to mid-latitudes including the U.S.-Canada border, central Europe, New Zealand, and Tasmania. G2/Kp 6 conditions are currently anticipated. Let's break down why this happening, and who will see aurora at what times! 🧵

First off, if you want to get these kind of threads emailed to you, you can sign up for my e-mail list: .

I send out these aurora alerts in anticipation of enhanced geomagnetic activity, and I try to give people a few days in advance to plan things out.go.theauroraguy.com/email

Okay, let's dive in!

First off, what is causing this forecasted period of enhanced geomagnetic activity? Well, yesterday morning UT time, we saw a nice filament eruption on the Sun. Filaments are like unstable plasma slinkies that can spontaneously lift off the Sun into space.

Read 30 tweets

Vincent Ledvina

@Vincent_Ledvina

Mar 24

A very large coronal hole is now directly facing Earth. We may see a CIR/density compression followed by HSS (high speed stream) in the next 24-48 hours. These high-speed streams can trigger geomagnetic storms, usually of minor to moderate strength (Kp 5-6).

Here's a screenshot from my e-book "A Beginner's Guide to Aurora Chasing" which can be found for free using this link: .

It shows the characteristic solar wind pattern associated with the arrival of these high-speed streams. go.theauroraguy.com/ebook

In fact, NOAA SWPC has issued a G2 moderate geomagnetic storm watch for tomorrow. The exact timing of the arrival of the high-speed stream is looser than a CME - conditions usually change over the course of hours instead of during a CME where this is a shock at a moment in time.

Read 10 tweets

Vincent Ledvina

@Vincent_Ledvina

Feb 11

What makes the aurora “explode?” In my most recent blog post, I go over a CRUCIAL concept in aurora chasing and space physics: Substorms! Learn more and read my blog: and in the thread below! 🧵theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/wha…

Picture this… You’re out chasing the aurora in Fairbanks, Alaska watching a thin, faint arc stretching across the sky. Suddenly, this arc erupts and starts swirling and growing rapidly. Now, the aurora fills the sky with bright colors and active motion.

The intensity of the aurora is so bright you start seeing colors – greens and a thin fringe of purple on the bottom of the auroral arcs.

Read 81 tweets

Vincent Ledvina

@Vincent_Ledvina

Jan 16

A coronal hole is currently sending a high-speed stream of solar wind at Earth, and we're beginning to feel it!

But, what are coronal holes, how can they affect Earth, are they dangerous, normal, and should you worry about them?

Let's take a deep dive into CORONAL HOLES! 🧵

If you downloaded my beginner's guide e-book on aurora chasing, you would already know the necessary info on coronal holes. Check out these screenshots detailing coronal holes and their effects on Earth and auroras. Get my e-book for free using this link: bit.ly/free-aurora-e-…

Okay, shameless plug over...
First of all, let me say the reason I am creating this thread now is because of all the hype coronal holes (CH) have received lately, and for largely no reason. Yes, we have one facing Earth now, but CH are normal and nothing to worry about.

Read 42 tweets

Vincent Ledvina

@Vincent_Ledvina

Dec 31, 2024

A list of PSAs as we await a predicted major (G3) geomagnetic storm this week:

1. The CMEs could impact anytime tonight or tomorrow. The CME may hit tomorrow during the day, too, and completely fizzle out before nighttime. Models only get you so far...

2. I personally don't see any signature in low-energy particle fluxes to suggest a CME arrival at L1 *soon*. There may be a rise now and slight bump in solar wind, but it could be a small random blob of CME. EPAM is not a for sure sign of a CME, just another positive indicator.

Another warning on EPAM - there have been a lot of flares and general mess on the Sun and heliosphere. EPAM may pick up these other disturbances and make analysis hard. Don't get fooled by false flags and fake outs. Also, no one is a fortune teller with a perfect record.

Read 7 tweets

Vincent Ledvina

@Vincent_Ledvina

Dec 30, 2024

🚨Important updates about the NYE aurora event. 🚨

1. Impact timing moved from 1 UTC Dec 31 --> 15 UT Dec 31

2. 1-2 punch - Two CMEs potentially arriving midday-late UTC on Dec 31. This could cause higher geomagnetic activity. Kp 6-7 storming seems most likely, not G4 imo.

NASA model: Impact evening hours UTC on Dec 31. Kp 6-8 predicted.

Unlike NOAA and HUXt, NASA M2M has not added a composite model with the multiple Earth-directed CMEs, yet.

Official prediction from @NWSSWPC calling for potential impact of the first CME around 2024-12-31 15 UTC and another impact around 2025-1-1 6 UTC. They have released a G3 watch for 2024-12-31 and G1/G2 watch for 2025-1-1.