Thread by @Laque_davis

1. Is a none confrontational & none radical opposition useful in Zimbabwe?

I'm often asked about that question above, particularly from those who #fear that 'Chamisa has pacified the Opposition, which is failing to do any demonstrations'

Here's what that narrative misses 👇

2. Firstly, a demonstration isn't an end unto itself.

Put differently, once off demonstrations are actually pointless & ineffective, unless the intention is mere optics, and stoking egos of the organizers.

Demonstrations must result in a clearly defined outcome.

3. So if the Opposition is to engage in mass action today, the success of it won't be on the number of those in attendance.

Rather, it should be on the impact it has, and/or the ability to sustain such a course of action, until the message is delivered, and it's impact felt.

4. In Zimbabwe, what has sadly pacified radical politics isn't the Opposition, but rather the absence of an atmosphere which previously made them successful.

During MT's days, the might of Trade Unions & civil society made mobilization easier.

Currently, neither is identifiable

5. So in a country where the power of trade unionism has turned academic, due to an economy that has largely become informal, the Opp becomes largely solely responsible for this mobilization.

Under such an economy, people are prepared to only do so much.
Priorities lie elsewhere

6. Let's concede that the establishment will naturally dig in,- meaning that if success will be realized, the demos must be prolonged.

However, where citizen's interests aren't solely political, prolonging such intervention sadly will only pit the organizers against participants

7. Secondly, let's all accept that the establishment won't just "dig in".

They will react decisively.
We turned from being a police state, into a military state.

Also, this regime came into power through a bloody military intervention.

The regime's source of power is the army.

8. Also, the comparison with the old days of "Opposition radicalism" misses that RG to some degree, had a desperation with being regarded as a senior stateman.

Also, he had a considerable political base to rely on.

Both advised lengths he would go, to respond to confrontations.

9. It doesn't help matters that regional bodies such as SADC & AU, are extremely useless.

Even democratic parties like the ANC, are now turning into ZanuPF.

It's also key to confrontational politics, that regional solidarity be 'galvanizable', to protect innocent citizens.

10. And also, what many miss, is the Harare regime's desperation to paint the Opp as commanding no support, to a point of preferring anarchy.

This narrative will be sustained by how they will hijack & influence these so called 'confrontations & then justify their strong response

11. Bottomline is, when your political opponent is a military faction, armed to the teeth, masquerading as a political party with structures & members, confronting it is suicide.

You have to drag it to a battle ground where it's power can be neutralized, & its strategies exposed

12. So instead of accusing the Opposition of turning soft, the real question is, do circumstances which historically made demonstration successful, still exist?

Also, whats required for execute prolonged action? and is the 'Opposition' able to mount this? and to what end?

13. I assure you, many of the voices calling for radicalism, from outside Zimbabwe, will be first to tweet about its failure.

In fact, some of them never participated in those demos when they were "successful".

They'll also be tweeting about who wasn't 'leading from the front!

14. Unless the intention is to drag the Opp into an unstrategic confrontation which will leave it appearing as if it wanted to gain power outside the ballot, then we are better of redirecting our energies elsewhere

Attracting a bloodbath in the name of radicalism is self-serving

15. But ofcourse, Zimbabwe is ours too.

Ofcourse harvesting legitimate disgruntlement of citizens against failed leadership to usher in change, is the fight we are faced with.

Let me leave this idea hanging for now.
This thread feels too long already.

until then.....

enkosi!!