"Considering China’s dominant position in wafers & the segment’s relatively high barriers for entry, it’s reasonable for China to consider the ban to avoid leaking tech to overseas players" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
slow clap for Biden's National security advisor Jake Sullivan who chose Cold War with China over climate cooperation. Opposed by so many of us who bluntly said that would not work. It was a fork in the road. policytensor.com/2019/05/23/fea…
Forget Competitive Advantage. Its 'Collaborative Advantage' as @jonasnahm wrote in stellar book. global.oup.com/academic/produ…
21st Century needs countries to work together to design, manufacture, & scale-up tech rapidly. Green Protectionism won't work
Climate is Natl Security policy is Industrial policy is Econ policy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
China is a Market mover, a Oil & Gas importer vulnerable to blockades, an "Electrostate", a Green Power Politics move, a ecologically fragile state all rolled into one
"China has effectively subsidized global green technology learning, with its own domestic investments (40% of GDP for 40 years). While China was investing, US is divesting—below 25% of US GDP and in wrong direction."
Polling shows Americans want Biden to work with Beijing on climate emergency
"imagine...a global climate race—one where US & China compete on some fronts, like the financing of clean energy overseas, & collaborate on others".
Goodbye solar exponential installations. It was nice knowing you. But We really really required Chips export controls for preventing planetary catastrophe.
Crazy how few people outside energy circles know this: "China now leads the world in offshore wind, onshore wind, solar installations and solar manufacturing, EV uptake, EV manufacturing, hydro, PHS, nuclear and smart grids" - @TimBuckleyCEF
18/ Can the US stop weaponized interdependence for Climate?
▫️set rules for use of export controls, sanctions, tariffs, capital/ invest restrictions, subsidies, price caps
▫️prevent overreach and overuse; reassure allies and world that US is not capricious economist.com/by-invitation/…
I talked with @africasacountry about the new nonalignment & polycrisis in global south
-policy induced global recession
-breakdown in West-China-Russia relations.
-societies boil coz of inflation
-explosive electoral politics of dollar debt crisis
podcast:africasacountry.com/2023/01/third-…
2/ Thanks to @africasacountry for interviewing me about my Nonalignment article where I argued stance of middle powers is a bargaining chip
Delhi, Jakarta, Brasilia, etc want tech transfer,military hardware etc. They want to play US & China off each other phenomenalworld.org/analysis/non-a…
3/ Uprising in Sri Lanka illustrates age of "polycrisis"
Mask - Corona crisis.
Bread - Food crisis
Fire - Petrol crisis
Banks - Dollar debt crisis
2/ Firstly, energy transitions do not happen in a vacuum. Each country is highly exposed to decisions made by others.
Decisions to launch wars,interest rate decisions, Industrial policy legislation in rich countries that can make developing countries export sectors uncompetitive
3/ Secondly, cost of capital is cheaper in rich world, pricier in developing countries. While Climate damages are concentrated in global south
So when climate risk is taken into account,developing countries have to pay even higher capital costs -> slowing their energy transition
Drinking chai in India only becomes popular in the 1930s. The Great Depression collapses prices just as British Indian tea plantations production surged. So tea marketing boards tried to create a domestic market seriouseats.com/indian-tea-his…
tea explodes in India 1930s: "Traveling salespeople promoted tea everywhere, from train stations & factories to the countryside. At public demonstrations, they showed how to brew tea & urged people to drink free sample cups or take home single-use packets" seriouseats.com/indian-tea-his…
"most dramatic expansion of tea consumption... chai (produced by boiling tea leaves in a mixture of milk, water, sugar...cardamom, cinnamon, clove, ginger)—only occurred after 1947 & the ensuing transfer of majority ownership in tea estates"
Mario Draghi warned that inflation “can wear down the commitment of our countries toward Ukraine” & lost his premiership in Italy.
Societies boil when the price of essentials like energy soar. We look at what EU politicians are doing to save their skins phenomenalworld.org/analysis/europ…
There are worse things in a democracy than politicians acting to save their skins.
Germany's €200 billion plan to freeze energy bills & subsidize households & industries sparks ‘animosity’ within EU
Its largely financed by new borrowing and imposing taxes on fossil fuel companies profits. Fiscal "rules" for thee not for me. Check out: phenomenalworld.org/analysis/europ…
is SBF the biggest fraud in world economic history??
FT: Sam Bankman-Fried has been accused of engineering “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history”
SBF has been charged with wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering. ft.com/content/bd5671…
FT: Sam Bankman-Fried has been accused of engineering “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history”
Matt Levine on the fraudsters playbook in plain English
2/ Europeans: Noooooo. you can't just give American automakers subsidies to go electric and kick us out of your battery value chain. We will challenge your protectionist congress bills at WTO. politico.eu/article/joe-bi…
3/ “Europe you are being ridiculous
...what are the priorities of European leaders? Is it to tackle the climate crisis?
Or is it just the bottom line of one of their automakers … and a bunch of bureaucrats ... that are just obsessed with maintaining free trade?” @maxbergmann