Hi brothers and sisters,
Happy LORD’S DAY!
🧵for the upcoming week:
1/
Recap last week-
Two of the S&P 500 giants reported < than stellar earnings/guidance (MSFT & TSLA). That could even be a vast understatement to some.
Fundamentally, it seemed the stocks would ⬇️.
Happy LORD’S DAY!
🧵for the upcoming week:
1/
Recap last week-
Two of the S&P 500 giants reported < than stellar earnings/guidance (MSFT & TSLA). That could even be a vast understatement to some.
Fundamentally, it seemed the stocks would ⬇️.
2/
But what ended up happening?
-For #MSFT stock price dropped Jan 25th AM, found a triple bottom (from Jan 11 and 19) ~ $230/share and rocketed upwards to close just shy of previous day's close.
-For #TSLA it just simply gapped up the next day & we all know about Friday.👀
But what ended up happening?
-For #MSFT stock price dropped Jan 25th AM, found a triple bottom (from Jan 11 and 19) ~ $230/share and rocketed upwards to close just shy of previous day's close.
-For #TSLA it just simply gapped up the next day & we all know about Friday.👀
3/
Fundamental/Macro furus on FinTwit were in absolute shambles and in dismay.
Some called the price action (PA) a joke!
They'd tweet:
"This market's broken."
Comments in those same threads echoed the same sentiment. By this, you could tell who was offside in positioning.
Fundamental/Macro furus on FinTwit were in absolute shambles and in dismay.
Some called the price action (PA) a joke!
They'd tweet:
"This market's broken."
Comments in those same threads echoed the same sentiment. By this, you could tell who was offside in positioning.
4/
As mentioned in a previous thread, there are so many that are worried about tech earnings, macro data, FOMC coming up.
The "wall of worry" was very steep.
And sure enough, with every dip, bulls came climbing back, and bears kept falling flat.
As mentioned in a previous thread, there are so many that are worried about tech earnings, macro data, FOMC coming up.
The "wall of worry" was very steep.
And sure enough, with every dip, bulls came climbing back, and bears kept falling flat.
https://twitter.com/SenesLULZ/status/1616596252111818755?s=20&t=M1Qk8DRVmGVp20mx3c4pCw
5/
While the macro risks and the earnings data (lots still to come) have justifiable worry attached to them, I believe this is what led to the "increasingly bearish sentiment similar to March 2020 lows" that was mentioned by @jam_croissant
@ 2:20
While the macro risks and the earnings data (lots still to come) have justifiable worry attached to them, I believe this is what led to the "increasingly bearish sentiment similar to March 2020 lows" that was mentioned by @jam_croissant
@ 2:20
6/
For those that started trading recently, Feb-March 2020 was the COVID crash, and sentiment/positioning remained incredibly bearish (EVEN AFTER 30%+ decline in the S&P!!!).
What ultimately happened in light of that bearish sentiment/positioning?
-Bull market for the ages.
For those that started trading recently, Feb-March 2020 was the COVID crash, and sentiment/positioning remained incredibly bearish (EVEN AFTER 30%+ decline in the S&P!!!).
What ultimately happened in light of that bearish sentiment/positioning?
-Bull market for the ages.
7/
Why is this important to highlight right here and now?
Take a look through this entire thread by the 🥐:
This earnings season in particular, FOMC, coming macro data/events are all VERY HIGHLY anticipated by your fav FinTwit furus.
Why is this important to highlight right here and now?
Take a look through this entire thread by the 🥐:
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1323977815163895808?s=20&t=oT4jvsof2fWy07BGPIcaag
This earnings season in particular, FOMC, coming macro data/events are all VERY HIGHLY anticipated by your fav FinTwit furus.
8/
Threads detailing:
-Worries of decreased earnings. ✅
-Worries of recession ✅
-Worst economic scenarios ✅
The list goes on...
But what does the 🥐always say?
"The economy is not the market."
This statement is nuanced, but is especially pertinent today.
Threads detailing:
-Worries of decreased earnings. ✅
-Worries of recession ✅
-Worst economic scenarios ✅
The list goes on...
But what does the 🥐always say?
"The economy is not the market."
This statement is nuanced, but is especially pertinent today.
9/
All this talk about how companies fundamentally & economically aren’t doing well & how that will lead to ⬇️stock price.
But how many FUNDAMENTAL🐻are offside rn?
How many retail normies are shorting at higher prices and losing $ all for the sake of “poor fundamentals?”
All this talk about how companies fundamentally & economically aren’t doing well & how that will lead to ⬇️stock price.
But how many FUNDAMENTAL🐻are offside rn?
How many retail normies are shorting at higher prices and losing $ all for the sake of “poor fundamentals?”
10/
What if I told you that market participants sans retail were largely expecting these negative 2nd order effects of inflation and rate hikes?
What if I told you that given these effects being EXPECTED, & positioning being poor...⬆️ stock price was & is inevitable?
What if I told you that market participants sans retail were largely expecting these negative 2nd order effects of inflation and rate hikes?
What if I told you that given these effects being EXPECTED, & positioning being poor...⬆️ stock price was & is inevitable?
11/
The 🥐says @ 7:35 in the same video that for the NEXT MONTH,
"This is a dip to buy into. If there's no liquidation, then expect a positive push...
Positioning is very poor. Until some of that READJUSTS and gets better, I think you can squeeze 🩳for awhile."
The 🥐says @ 7:35 in the same video that for the NEXT MONTH,
"This is a dip to buy into. If there's no liquidation, then expect a positive push...
Positioning is very poor. Until some of that READJUSTS and gets better, I think you can squeeze 🩳for awhile."
12/
🐻 had their chance in this window of non-supportive flows. Heck, they even had the "fundamentals" from mega tech to help support a possible liquidation break.
But, $NOPE (oops sorry @gnoble79 . Why block me for calling you out?).
I digress. Back to topic at ✋.
🐻 had their chance in this window of non-supportive flows. Heck, they even had the "fundamentals" from mega tech to help support a possible liquidation break.
But, $NOPE (oops sorry @gnoble79 . Why block me for calling you out?).
I digress. Back to topic at ✋.
13/
What’s next in the week ahead?
-More events!
SURELY, this is the 🐻chance again to strike!
Honestly though, after seeing what indices did this past week in light of poor earnings...
Good luck playing this to the downside here. On Feb 15th (Vixpiry) maybe, but now?
Tough...
What’s next in the week ahead?
-More events!
SURELY, this is the 🐻chance again to strike!
Honestly though, after seeing what indices did this past week in light of poor earnings...
Good luck playing this to the downside here. On Feb 15th (Vixpiry) maybe, but now?
Tough...
14/
Already, I am seeing posts about how the other tech generals will 💩the bed and how indices will sharply reverse.
Trend lines from EWC charters have been redrawn and their wave down revised for the 20th time in the past two months.🤣
But beware... come this week there are:
Already, I am seeing posts about how the other tech generals will 💩the bed and how indices will sharply reverse.
Trend lines from EWC charters have been redrawn and their wave down revised for the 20th time in the past two months.🤣
But beware... come this week there are:
15/
-Return of EOM/BOM flows
-Return of 👸+ 🦥
-CTA flows
-Other trend following strategies now that we're above the MOAT AND the 200d
-LO (Long Only) funds putting money to work
ALL working against the 🐻case here.
They don't ONLY care about your "fundamentals."
-Return of EOM/BOM flows
-Return of 👸+ 🦥
-CTA flows
-Other trend following strategies now that we're above the MOAT AND the 200d
-LO (Long Only) funds putting money to work
ALL working against the 🐻case here.
They don't ONLY care about your "fundamentals."
16/
Now, don't get me wrong. FOMC could still be a wild card/black swan (as mentioned by @eliant_capital), and tech COULD be DISASTROUS...
but unless the FED comes out with the MOST HAWKISH rhetoric EVER & tech fails HEAVILY, declines in the next week will likely be muted.
Now, don't get me wrong. FOMC could still be a wild card/black swan (as mentioned by @eliant_capital), and tech COULD be DISASTROUS...
but unless the FED comes out with the MOST HAWKISH rhetoric EVER & tech fails HEAVILY, declines in the next week will likely be muted.
17/
And if anything, the resolution of these events–especially if things are JUST as expected this week (i.e., bad but not atrocious)--will likely lead to an even MORE EXPLOSIVE move up imho due to the aforementioned sentiment/positioning.
*unless again any black swan event*
And if anything, the resolution of these events–especially if things are JUST as expected this week (i.e., bad but not atrocious)--will likely lead to an even MORE EXPLOSIVE move up imho due to the aforementioned sentiment/positioning.
*unless again any black swan event*
18/
With that said, how should one be playing this?
As the 🥐said, you want to be cautiously optimistic til Feb 13th.
You should have CONVEX HEDGES on, especially when the tail is this fat and skew is so low.
But going HEAVY into Zee Puts here?
Not me.
Still Too soon.
With that said, how should one be playing this?
As the 🥐said, you want to be cautiously optimistic til Feb 13th.
You should have CONVEX HEDGES on, especially when the tail is this fat and skew is so low.
But going HEAVY into Zee Puts here?
Not me.
Still Too soon.
19/
As I mentioned in a previous thread that echoed 🥐, I'm looking for more dips to buy into. Look for tactical spots to long:
-1 std > 20d
-20d
-MOAT
-200d
CHANCES are, this rally has more to go.
(Unless JPOW drops zee🔨).
Don’t try to predict what he'll say. Imho, just wait.
As I mentioned in a previous thread that echoed 🥐, I'm looking for more dips to buy into. Look for tactical spots to long:
-1 std > 20d
-20d
-MOAT
-200d
CHANCES are, this rally has more to go.
(Unless JPOW drops zee🔨).
Don’t try to predict what he'll say. Imho, just wait.
20/
🐻porn is all around us. And it's easy to see why the case for 🐻is FUNDAMENTALLY more sound than that of the 🐂case.
"There isn't much more room for upside here" is the sentiment I'm reading from various sources and FinTwit furus.
Some of whom you may follow & respect. But..
🐻porn is all around us. And it's easy to see why the case for 🐻is FUNDAMENTALLY more sound than that of the 🐂case.
"There isn't much more room for upside here" is the sentiment I'm reading from various sources and FinTwit furus.
Some of whom you may follow & respect. But..
21/
"Markets remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Don't lose sight of the flows, as 🥐would say.
Price is truth.
If market wants to go higher, it will!
STOP trying to fight it & double down on a losing trade bc you think you're smarter.
FYI:
YOU’RE NOT!
"Markets remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Don't lose sight of the flows, as 🥐would say.
Price is truth.
If market wants to go higher, it will!
STOP trying to fight it & double down on a losing trade bc you think you're smarter.
FYI:
YOU’RE NOT!
22/
Be water.
Don't be dogmatic.
Be open minded, have "no problem changing from 🐂/🐻" as @NoProb_XXX would say.
Learn how to play both sides, and you'll do very well this year.
Be water.
Don't be dogmatic.
Be open minded, have "no problem changing from 🐂/🐻" as @NoProb_XXX would say.
Learn how to play both sides, and you'll do very well this year.
23/
Let's take it 1 week at a time.
It’s not productive for us to forecast too far in advance & guess what JPOW will do.
B/c Let's be real: 99% of Fintwit is 🗑️, most opinions are just stolen from @jam_croissant anyways (even from your fav furus).
I’ll end on this note:
Let's take it 1 week at a time.
It’s not productive for us to forecast too far in advance & guess what JPOW will do.
B/c Let's be real: 99% of Fintwit is 🗑️, most opinions are just stolen from @jam_croissant anyways (even from your fav furus).
I’ll end on this note:
24/
-2022 was easy for the🐻just as 2021 was for the🐂.
-2023 is going to require a different approach to markets that your ordinary FinTwit furu can't navigate.
-2022 put an end to some perma 🐂furus.
And 2023 will likely do the same for perma 🐻furus.
Love y'all. GL!
Fin.
-2022 was easy for the🐻just as 2021 was for the🐂.
-2023 is going to require a different approach to markets that your ordinary FinTwit furu can't navigate.
-2022 put an end to some perma 🐂furus.
And 2023 will likely do the same for perma 🐻furus.
Love y'all. GL!
Fin.
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