Thread by @davidhelms570

1/ Using dam operations (water realease) data to assess the importance of the Kakhovka HPP (K-HPP) dam and reservoir and North Crimean Canal to Russian political and military priorities, a #NAFOWeather🧵

2/ It has been almost a year since the (most recent) Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian propaganda tries to obscure true motivations for its invasion. Looking back helps separate Russian stated "initial war aims" mis-information (below) from true objectives.

3/ On the 8th anniversary of Crimea's occupation (18 MAR 2022) Putin said "These were essential things such as gas and power supply, utility infrastructure, restoring the road network, and construction of new roads, motorways and bridges” but also said “There is more to it."

4/ Putin's reference to unfinished work was specifically a critical deficit of water for Crimea even after spending trillions of rubles to solve the problem. Invading Kherson and stealing Dnipro River water for Crimea was clearly a primary objective of Russia's invasion.

5/ Evidence of Dnipro River water as a political and military objective for the invasion include
Russian warplans fould in the first days of the invasion which show Kakhovka HPP as a target

https://twitter.com/paolobucci68/status/1591041611076718593?s=20&t=uYBtZcNNdxB-wmXkUIKmnQ

6/ 27 FEB 2022: Russian destruct of the water metering dam at the Crimea/Kherson administrative border "It’s telling that one of the first actions that Russian forces took in their invasion of Ukraine was to blow up a dam on the North Crimean Canal (NCC)"
newsecuritybeat.org/2022/03/hydrop…

7/ Occupied Crimea officials discussed operation of pumping stations and of immediate use of NCC water in Crimea in March 2022 within weeks of Russian invasion.
c-inform.info/news/id/101559

8/ RF General Shoigu referenced NCC stolen water as an achievement of the Special Military Operation “The restoration of transport infrastructure and water supply creates favorable conditions for the development of the agro-industrial complex"
telegra.ph/Ministr-oboron…

9/ After communication between Putin and Elon Musk, Musk tweeted Putin's short-list terms for peace which included "Water supply to Crimea assured" as one of 4 key elements.

10/ Particulars on NCC, Kakahovka HPP (K-HPP) and Reservoir and the role it plays in providing stolen water to Crimea. The K-HPP water storage for the reservoir storing over 6 cubic kilometers of useful water to power the HPP turbines & irrigate crops through reservoir canals.

11/ How much is just 1 cubic kilometer (km**3) of water? Quite a lot! The NCC delivered about 1.5 km**3 of water to Crimea in 2013 and estimates are a similar amount of water will be sent to Crimea a year after occupation.

12/ From FEB-SEP 2022, Russians operators of hydrologic facilities at K-HPP at Nova Kakhovka & NCC main water intake at Tavriisk maintained reservoir height well above normal reservoir height (16 meters) to improve water flow to the NCC to meet Putin's political objectives.

13/ By May 2022, Russian K-HPP dam operators had pushed the reservoir height to record levels forcing them to release water at rates Russian occupants opened floodgates at Kakhovka HPP, raising the downstream level of Dnipro River, & flooding river banks.
investigator.org.ua/ua/topnews/243…

14/ ... But everything would not go to plan for Russian occupiers when in late July 2022, ZSU began targeting the K-HPP lock Antonovsky bridges with HIMARS missiles.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1551113884676886528

15/ By late AUG 2022, repeated HIMARS strikes would destroy the K-HPP and Antonovsky bridges over the lock forcing Russia to re-think Dnipro right bank occupation of Kherson.

https://twitter.com/aNdr0iz/status/1567423152593969152

16/ AUG-SEP 2022 was the period when Russian occupiers attempted to maintain right bank access using ferries and pontoon bridges. This strategy was suboptimal. A Russian plan for retreat was commenced after its inability to hold Kherson become clear.

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1568495990113542144

17/ In October 2022, Russian K-HPP began releasing water at a high rate which lasted through November 1st
when water releases abruptly ceased.
OCT 31
sentinelshare.page.link/bnS6
NOV 2
sentinelshare.page.link/QZZT

18/ By October, K-HPP and Reservoir changed from a physical asset for providing NCC water to a pysops asset for covering the Russian retreat when occupation officials announced evacuation of the Kherson right bank. apnews.com/article/russia…

19/ During this time, Russian propaganda statuated social media with doom of the likely destruction of the K-HPP dam by ZSU.
en.topwar.ru/203660-podryv-…

20/ @TheStudyofWar would conclude that the psyops campaign was "likely meant to speed evacuations and provide informational cover for #Russian withdrawals from the west bank."

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1587275916597596160?s=20&t=kfwrzeFZnU5RDfAhan3gIw

21/ By late OCT 2022, Russian occupier officials would confirm they were releasing K-HPP water " to minimize damage in the event of the destruction of the power plant." Of course, Russians has already placed charges on the K-HPP road & rail bridge decks.
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/…

22/ On November 11, Russians ignited the charges they placed on the above the 3 sluice gates K-HPP nearest to the right bank.

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1619757653038870528?s=20&t=_msowthPnqm2w__RehXhAQ

TL;DR No, there weren't Putin's objectives. Colonization was his actual objective (surprise!).

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1619990400508510208?s=20&t=7w6dkAa4BSOSesVaL4GfZA

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