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Jan 30, 2023 20 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
19/ Sources:
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/36113
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/36132

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jun 3
1/ Russian warbloggers are reacting with shock and alarm at the Ukrainian attack today on the Russian Baltic Fleet corvette Boykiy near St Petersburg. In particular, they question the apparent lack of effective air defences or anti-drone protection. ⬇️
2/ 'Rybar' comments: "The threat to the fleet is everywhere."

"Judging by the video, at least two hits were recorded. The corvette was in dry dock undergoing repairs, despite the ship being new. And Ukrainian forces intercepted it there."
3/ "They had already done something similar during attacks on Sevastopol several years earlier.

The hit on the Boykiy once again exposes the problem of countering UAVs.
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Jun 3
1/ Accused rapist and sex trafficker Andrew Tate is visiting Russia. The news has disturbed Russian warbloggers, who suggest that Russia, which has recruited literal cannibals into its army, should aspire to a higher standard. ⬇️
2/ 'Rybar' is strongly critical:

"Why do we need this gift?

Popular English-speaking blogger Andrew Tate has published a post with an unambiguous hint of a visit to Russia." Image
3/ "Timing-wise, this coincides with the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, where Western influencers have been actively invited in recent years — as a demonstration that ‘not everyone in the West is against Russia’.

But this is an extremely poor choice of guest.
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Jun 3
1/ The Russian-occupied city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is under a 'drone siege', according to local inhabitants. Ukrainian drones are striking targets across the city and the surrounding region. A resident provides a vivid eyewitness account. ⬇️
2/ 'Donetsk MartynoVa', a pro-Russian resident of Donetsk who positions herself as an influencer and Telegram blogger, has been writing about the deteriorating situation over the past month. On 11 May, she wrote:
3/ "The news brings information that drones are already harassing the land corridor, but, judging by the number of cars from Crimea, this doesn't stop many [travellers]."

By 18 May, the drone campaign had been stepped up:
Read 55 tweets
Jun 2
1/ Russia's captured and corrupted bureaucracy, which is under the thumb of powerful industrial concerns and complicit politicians, is strangling independent developers of military electronics. Several developers are complaining about the situation. ⬇️ Image
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"China launched a new strategy in February. China wants to be not only the world's factory, but also its laboratory."
3/ "Programmes have been launched to attract R&D companies to China. In Russian: welcome, developers, we will create the conditions for you. And here, people are worried about developers running away, but not about entire companies running away.

Strange.
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Jun 2
1/ News that Russia's BMPT Terminator, famed for its wobbly autocannons, is to be renamed the Spirodon has attracted criticism from Russian warbloggers. Perhaps not coincidentally, Spirodon also was the first name of Vladimir Putin's paternal grandfather. ⬇️ Image
2/ According to Uralvagonzavod's official channel, "The machine, which replaces an entire unit, no longer bears the nickname of the American destroyer robot. It is our shield and sword."
3/ The official announcement says that the change in name was made "at the request of Uralvagonzavod workers (part of Rostec) and combat vehicle crews ... in honour of courage, resilience, and strength of spirit."

"Why "Spiridon"? This is a rare but revered name in Russia."
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Jun 2
1/ Russia may be forced back to its 1991 borders as the Ukraine war turns against it, a Russian warblogger warns in a gloomy commentary. The prospects of a ceasefire on the current line of contact are slipping away and the threat to Russia itself is increasing. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Tulenkov', a Russian former soldier who fought in Ukraine, writes:

"As far as I can tell from my understanding of the situation on the battlefields of the Special Military Operaion, we've already lost sight of the option of freezing the line of contact."
3/ "Currently, it's of no interest to the enemy and its masters.

Until they fully exploit the capabilities of Palantir and other Karpov-like ideas, no one will put the war on hold.

Therefore, the next stage of real negotiations will be the 1991 borders.
Read 13 tweets

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