1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ A shortage of drones reportedly means that Russian drone pilots often don't attack Ukrainian vehicles again after disabling them. This, says a serving Russian soldier, means that the Ukrainians are frequently able to retrieve disabled vehicles. ⬇️
2/ Russian forces in Ukraine have been complaining for a long time that they lack drones, with those provided by the Russian MOD being few and often of poor quality.
3/ Instead, they often have to rely on voluntary donations and unofficial drone production by the so-called 'people's military-industrial complex' – an ecosystem of enthusiasts and ex-military personnel who make or import drones for military use.
1/ News of the destruction of yet another US aircraft on the ground is being met with incredulity by Russian Air Force pilots. They ask if the United States has learned nothing from Russia's own very costly experiences. ⬇️
2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel run by a group of Russian military helicopter pilots, expresses astonishment at pictures published overnight of a US CH-47 Chinook helicopter that was destroyed on the ground in Kuwait.
3/ "I look at this photo and realize that the Americans, with all their budgets and all, haven't studied or systematized our experience in any way.
1/ Russian army commanders are reportedly refusing to allow stored ZSU-23-4 Shilkas mobile anti-aircraft guns to be refurbished and put back into service, despite Russia's desperate need for more defences against Ukraine's increasingly large-scale drone strikes. ⬇️
2/ 'The Voivode Broadcasts', a Telegram channel written by three Russian Aerospace Force pilots, writes:
"I was talking to some guys from one of the repair battalions the other day."
3/ "They were showing us what Category 5 [the lowest condition] equipment they're getting off its knees with their own resources.
BMPs [armoured personnel carriers], BTS [armoured recovery tractors], and so on.
1/ Russia has "shot itself in the dick" with its block on Telegram, according to a scathing commentary. A Russian warblogger notes that pro-Kremlin propagandists have seen huge falls in views of their Telegram channels, but not dissident and pro-Ukraine channels. ⬇️
2/ Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist Dmitry Steshin calls it "a day of celebration for foreign agents, as the audience for pro-Russian channels on Telegram has plummeted."
3/ "Margarita Simonyan saw a 52.3% drop, while propagandist Alexander Sladkov saw a 49.4% drop. Views for ‘RT in Russian’ fell by 42%, whilst those for propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Pavel Zarubin fell by 47.2% and 42.7% respectively.
1/ In a further sign of an economic slump in Russia, the giant vehicle manufacturer AvtoVAZ will shut down production entirely for 17 days due to falling demand and overcrowded warehouses. Its vehicles aren't selling and storage facilities are overflowing. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet Mash reports that AvtoVAZ will shut down its assembly lines for almost the entire period from 27 April to 17 May, with the workforce sent on mandatory leave.
3/ Workers will be sent to do maintenance work between 27-30 April, 12-13 May will be covered by a postponement of vacation days from December, and staff will be paid at two-thirds their normal salary on 14-15 May.
1/ Brutally murdering women in front of their children has effectively been legalised in Russia, due to the Russian government's policy of allowing pre-trial detainees to go to Ukraine to fight rather than facing justice. A horrific case from Voronezh highlights the problem. ⬇️
2/ Madina Nikolaevna Mironenko, a 42-year-old soldier's widow and mother of four children, was dragged out of her house by her hair and stabbed to death by a masked neighbour, in front of her nine-year-old daughter. Another neighbour witnessed the attack and recognised the man.
3/ A group of soldiers' relatives in Voronezh has written an open letter to the authorities:
"There are 220 of us (each of us can write to you personally if necessary), we are relatives of those who, at the call and behest of their hearts,…