1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ The US attempted to send several Iran-bound bombers to an Italian air base without prior authorisation and was refused permission by the Italian government while the aircraft were in flight. The news comes a day after Spain disclosed it was refusing US military overflights. ⬇️
2/ Corriere della Sella and La Republicca report that on Fridary 27 March, the Italian Chief of the Defence Staff, General Luciano Portolano, was informed that several US bombers were inbound to the Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, controlled by the Italian Air Force.
3/ However, nobody on the US side had requested authorisation or consulted the Italian military leadership. The plan was only communicated to the Italians while the planes were already in flight.
1/ Russians are facing an 'internet tax', reportedly imposed by a secret decree from Vladimir Putin, of 150 rubles ($1.84) for each gigabyte of VPN traffic they use. This is being seen by commentators as a new way of suppressing Telegram's 100 million users in Russia. ⬇️
2/ The BBC Russian Service reports that the FSB has told the Ministry of Digital Development to impose a tax on every gigabyte of VPN traffic after an initial 15 Gb. The FSB wants to discourage Russians from connecting to foreign VPN servers to access resources blocked in Russia.
3/ The tax is due to be put into force by 1 May 2026, despite the opposition of the Ministry of Digital Development and public criticism. It's a stark indication of how the security establishment (the 'siloviki') has become the dominant player in the Russian government.
1/ Recruitment for Russia's drone forces has slumped, despite an intensive recruitment campaign, because potential volunteers fear being forced to become stormtroopers. The situation is so severe that a Russian general has suggested moving drone forces out of the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Chadayev, the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre – a leading Russian drone development organisation – recounts a conversation that he had recently with a Russian lieutenant general about the army's failing UAV pilot recruitment programme:
3/ "Today I had a conversation with a lieutenant general, a longtime acquaintance of mine and, without exaggeration, a senior comrade and mentor. He gave me an idea I'd like to share with the channel.
1/ Without Telegram, which is now fully banned for Russian military use, Russian soldiers in Ukraine are finding it harder – or impossible – to do previously everyday tasks. A brief summary by a Russian signalman highlights specific problems:
2/ "Just to give you a little context, it's worth mentioning that:
Without a little help, I can't:
- download current height matrices for work communications tasks from the ZOV map channel [for an officially approved map app]
3/ "- download current cartographic data for the same purposes
- download a fresh archive of the communications software pack
- get prompt advice on setting up a specific network hardware system for my comrades at the front.
- And I can't do a lot of other work-related things.
1/ Yet more Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia's Baltic oil terminals have prompted angry comments from Russian warbloggers about air defence failures. Interestingly, this is also leading to hitherto unthinkable condemnations of Putin himself. ⬇️
"Regular air raids, and they haven't even deployed mobile task forces to the border to intercept UAVs, and there are no firing positions on site."
3/ "The "system" is working like a rotting brontosaurus. Those fucking guys are already eating their tails, and the "brains" are afraid to show independence...
1/ Spain has banned US military aircraft from using its airspace to attack Iran, forcing them to take much longer routes around the Iberian Peninsula. The Spanish government says it will not support a war that lacks legal cover. ⬇️
2/ The Spanish newspaper El País reports that Spain has banned the use of the air bases at Rota and Morón de la Frontera to US fighter aircraft, bombers, and tanker aircraft involved in the war in Iran, including those based in the UK.
3/ This is resulting in US bombers flying from England or directly from the US to take circuitous routes to avoid Spanish airspace, for instance diverting to fly via international airspace in the Strait of Gibraltar.