1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Russian warblogger Roman Alekhin is very upset with @olliecarroll's recent piece in The Economist on infighting between Russian pro-war commentators. Some – including Alekhin – have been declared 'foreign agents' after falling out with the Kremlin. ⬇️
2/ Writing on his Telegram channel, Alekhin complains that the Economist had the cheek to lead the story with his own mugshot:
3/ "Today I was sent a link to The Economist, which placed my photo on its cover with the headline 'Russia’s militant bloggers are clashing with their own regime'"
1/ The US has secretly been working with Russia to develop a new peace plan for Ukraine, according to a report in Axios. The 28-point plan is said to cover peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Axios reports that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff has been working with his Russian counterpark Kirill Dmitriev to develop the plan, apparently without Ukrainian or European input, with European officials only now being briefed on it.
3/ Dmitriev says that the plan will "address the Ukraine conflict, but also how to restore US-Russia ties [and] address Russia's security concerns."
1/ Russian soldiers say they are being minimally equipped and told to scavenge supplies from corpses in infiltration missions in which most of them will be killed. Artillerymen and drone operators are being expended as stormtroopers. ⬇️
2/ An exchange of short comments between Russian warbloggers who are fighting in Ukraine highlights the realities of Russia's current tactic of sending small, minimally equipped groups of men to infiltrate Ukrainian positions in the face of omnipresent drones.
3/ "In our battalion, they don't even use PKMs [machine guns] for missions right now. Everyone works exclusively with Kalashnikovs. And there are no multi-person teams. Assault teams work in pairs. Six magazines per person. If you want more, scavenge from corpses along the way."
1/ This video of two Russian soldiers being abused by their commander highlights the violence and cruelty now endemic in the Russian army. The unit in question provides a microcosm of how this has now become routine after three and a half years of war.
2/ According to a soldier of the 30th Motorised Rifle Regiment who filmed one man being repeatedly shot with an air rifle and another being put naked into an open-air pit or zindan, "the company commander regularly uses such punishments against undesirable soldiers."
3/ "Moreover, on his orders, bank cards are collected from personnel, supposedly to withdraw funds for the regiment's needs, but the cards are ultimately not returned to the soldiers. After some time, all available funds are withdrawn from the accounts of deceased soldiers."
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that Russia's recent tactical successes around Pokrovsk and elsewhere are likely to have little effect on the overall trajectory of the war in Ukraine, unless Russia is willing to commit fully to the total defeat and dismemberment of Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Girkin has issued a fresh letter from a B̵i̵r̵m̵i̵n̵g̵h̵a̵m̵ Kirovo-Chepetsk jail and (somehow, probably by text messages) has given an interview to the Russian news outlet RTVI, giving his current assessment of the state of the war.
3/ In a letter to a friend, he acknowledges that he may have been "a bit "overzealous" in my expressions about Our National Leader and was "more than usually" critical in my assessment of his (and his impeccable team's) performance both during the Special Military Operation…
1/ Russian soldiers fighting near Pokrovsk say they are eating bark to avoid starvation, while they face systematic extortion, embezzlement, and violence from their commanders, who send numerous men to their deaths and routinely execute others who are deemed inconvenient. ⬇️
2/ Vladimir Valerievich Dulyaninov, serving in the 6th Guards Tank Regiment (military unit 93992), has recorded a series of videos which his aunt has released in an apparent effort to pressure the Russian authorities to take action against the regiment's commanders.
3/ Dulyaninov has given a detailed account of the abuses in his unit, which reflect many similar accounts across the Russian army. He says that he is the commander of an assault platoon, but "I've lost many soldiers due to the reckless commanders, the rush and all that."