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Jan 30, 2023 20 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
19/ Sources:
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/36113
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/36132

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Feb 6
1/ Why has Russia failed so abysmally at providing secure battlefield communications to its troops in Ukraine? The answer, concludes Russian warblogger Oleg Tsarev, is that the military communications budget has been looted for years by corrupt generals and contractors. ⬇️ Image
2/ Tsarev relates the dismal history of Russia's military communications programmes:

"I remember how, at the beginning of the Special Military Operation, all units were buying Motorola radios. There was no other communications."
3/ "Now, Elon Musk has shut down the Starlink terminals our military used in the Special Military Operation, and our communications at the front have been disrupted. I'm talking to military personnel: many say we still have virtually no communications of our own.
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Feb 6
1/ The attempted assassination of Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev in Moscow this morning has outraged Russian warbloggers, who regard him as a hero of Russia. They have highlighted his key role and contributions to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. ⬇️ Image
2/ Vladimir Romanov writes:

"An assassination attempt was made on Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev [who is known as 'Stepanich'], First Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Ministry of Defence."
3/ "An unknown assailant fired several shots into his back in the elevator lobby of a building on Volokolamsk Highway at 7:00 a.m. The assassin fled the scene. Alekseyev was hospitalised.
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Feb 6
1/ Russia's battlefield communications are reportedly "in chaos" following the Starlink shutdown. Communications specialists are said to be scrambling to find alternative solutions, while warbloggers advocate torturing Ukrainian PoWs to get their Starlink passwords. ⬇️ Image
2/ Yuri Podolyak writes:

"So, what everyone had long feared, but secretly hoped wouldn't happen until the end of the Special Military Operation has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch, and 80% of Starlink terminals on the front line went down."
3/ "Moreover, it's highly likely that on our side, this will soon reach 100%, and only Russian ingenuity can attempt to circumvent it. And they will probably circumvent it somehow. But not with a return to 100% functionality as of yesterday morning.
Read 30 tweets
Feb 5
1/ A Russian warblogger explains what the Russian army in Ukraine saw when they were disconnected en masse from Starlink yesterday. ⬇️ Image
2/ "Starlink went down across the theatre of military operations in a rather strange way.

At around 22:00 Moscow time, it was like this:
3/ "– All terminals in the Ukraine theatre of operations are blocked. Both ours and those of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even from their "white list". All of them.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 5
1/ Russian retailers are cashing in on Elon Musk's mass disabling of the Russian army's Starlink terminals by massively increasing the price of Russian alternatives. One such system has quadrupled in price overnight to over $2,600, but is said to be far inferior to Starlink. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Combat Reserve' complains that there has been a huge overnight increase in the price being asked for the Yamal 601 system, which uses Gazprom's Yamal satellite constellation. Units are now selling for 200,000 rubles ($2,612) apiece.
3/ Listings on Avito (Russia's answer to eBay) show that until yesterday, Yamal 601 units were being priced at between 45-60,000 rubles. They are however far less capable than Starlink, and Russian soldiers have avoided them in favour of the smaller and faster US-made system.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 5
1/ Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing a devastating loss of connectivity as the Starlink terminals they rely upon are systematically shut off. With Russia's own Starlink alternative years away from implementation, Russian warbloggers say the army is in crisis. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Russian army has, like Ukraine's, become dependent on Starlink for battlefield communications. Unlike Ukraine, it cannot import Starlink terminals legally and has to rely on grey imports activated in third countries.
3/ After Russian UAV makers began installing Starlink in kamikaze UAVs, SpaceX responded by implementing technical measures to disconnect fact-moving terminals and Ukraine began whitelisting its own terminals – with all non-whitelisted terminals being disabled.
Read 41 tweets

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