1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Russian soldiers are being handcuffed to each other, pepper-sprayed, and beaten to force them to go to the front lines. A soldier says that ex-POWs and badly wounded men on crutches are being forced to fight. "They're just throwing us in for meat," he says. ⬇️
2/ Speaking in a video recorded in the back of a Russian army truck, a soldier from the 114th Motorised Rifle Regiment (military unit 24776) has recorded an appeal for help. He speaks of the violence being used against the men, and shows how he is handcuffed to a comrade:
3/ "People are being held against their will. They're being handcuffed and pepper-sprayed. Is that normal?", he asks.
1/ Indians fighting in the Russian army have been killed en masse near Pokrovsk. A survivor says in a video that his friends, who included students studying in Russia, died only 10 days after signing a military contract and being sent to the front without any training. ⬇️
2/ An Indian man tells how his friend, a student, signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence because he wanted to make money. He had previously been doing "a month of work digging dugouts", likely in the Russian rear or in a border region.
3/ "When he came [back] to Moscow ... he sees that if he signs a contract, he gets 2,000,000 rubles [$24,584 – note that the average annual salary in India is $4,038]."
His friend was sent to Pokrovsk only 10 days later, without any training. As the man says:
69 years ago today, Soviet troops had deposed the pro-democracy government of Hungary and were wiping out every remaining pocket of armed resistance. But Hungarian revolutionaries were still fighting back desperately against overwhelming odds.
2/ As the Hungarian Revolution enters its second week, the Soviet Army has effectively neutralised the Hungarian Army and crushed much of the resistance to its invasion of Hungary. Hungarian revolutionary fighters and some soldiers continue to fight on in Budapest and elsewhere.
3/ The revolutionaries are holding onto a handful of positions in central Budapest, including Corvin Square, Moszkva Square (the present-day Széll Kálmán Square), and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building. They fight on in the desperate hope of Western intervention.
1/ Russian warbloggers are bitter and outraged that Serbia is selling ammunition to the EU to provide to Ukraine. One advocates that in response, "as a brotherly gesture, [we could] cut off their fucking gas valve". ⬇️
"Serbia is ready to sell ammunition to the EU, even if it ends up in Ukraine. Because the warehouses are overflowing—Vučić
Vučić emphasized that Serbia is militarily neutral, but is ready to cooperate with European armies."
3/ "Brothers, they are! So, the warehouses are overflowing with shells! Cash is "frozen"! So let it fly at the Russians. They are brothers! There are plenty of them, they will tolerate it. And Serbia has the money!
Vučić is as disgusting as a caterpillar gorged on cabbage."
69 years ago today, Hungary's dream of freedom and democracy was brutally crushed by 200,000 Soviet troops with over 1,000 tanks. Although Operation Whirlwind was meant to be over in three days, Hungary's revolutionaries fought on for a week.
2/ The Soviet forces already inside Hungary are organized into two armies. The Eighth Army is deployed around Debrecen in the east with six divisions. The 38th Guards Army, stationed around Székesfehérvár in the west, comprises another seven divisions.
3/ A separate 'Special Corps' comprising five elite Guards divisions is stationed just across the border in Romania, with another six divisions assigned to it for the operation. This force has been directed to seize Budapest in the morning of 4 November 1956.
1/ Russia is failing to keep up with Ukraine's drone development, according to a Russian warblogger. In a lengthy commentary, 'Voenkor Kotenok' asks: "Who is stealing Russia's victory on the battlefield in the Special Military Operation?" ⬇️
2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' blames a range of factors, including bureaucratic inertia, commanders' mismanagement of UAV specialists, a technological deficit, different approaches, and the staffing of some Russian UAV with "cronies" who want what they think are safer roles. He writes:
3/ "The war in Ukraine is being marked by the creation of a new branch of the armed forces.