1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Russian warbloggers have identified a new enemy in the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone attacks in Moscow: migrants, who have appeared in many videos of the strikes. They are calling for severe punishments of those who have violated the government's censorship regulations. ⬇️
2/ One of the most iconic videos from the attack, showing a fuel storage tank's lid being thrown high in the air by an explosion, was filmed by a Chinese migrant worker and posted on his TikTok channel.
"Migrants from fraternal China published a video of a surface-to-air missile (or a MANPADS missile) hitting a storage tank at a Moscow oil refinery. Now the footage is spreading across Chinese and global social media."
1/ Why do Russian anti-drone units fail shoot down drones? Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev says they have numerous deficiencies, including bad communications, coordination, training, and drunkenness, that are undermining Russia's drone defences. ⬇️
"You can surround yourself with all sorts of equipment – radars, machine guns, state-of-the-art interceptors – and still miss an incoming aircraft simply because of a problem with the ‘padding between the steering wheel and the seat’.
3/ "– When mobile fire teams are afraid to shoot down drones (what if there's another one after them? What if it crashes somewhere wrong and gets called in?).
– When observers on duty are asleep or even drinking at their posts.
1/ Russian warbloggers are celebrating one piece of collateral damage from yesterday's drone attack in Moscow – a shot-down Ukrainian drone which set the huge Sadovod market on fire. Their comments highlight ingrained Russian anti-immigrant sentiment. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's attack targeted the oil refinery in Kapotnya, south-east of central Moscow. The surrounding area is heavily polluted and is one of the cheapest areas in Moscow in terms of housing costs. This has encouraged large numbers of immigrants to settle there.
3/ The nearby Sadovod market, established in 1997, is the largest wholesale and retail centre in the whole of Russia, covering an area of more than 40 hectares. It contains around 8,000 shops and attracts over 36 million customers annually, many coming from abroad.
1/ In the aftermath of yesterday's Ukrainian attack on Moscow, many Russian warbloggers are calling for Russia to "start fighting for real" and are blaming the Kremlin for not prosecuting the war with sufficient ferocity. One warblogger explains why this is a fantasy. ⬇️
2/ Roman Yuneman writes:
"In the wake of today's attack on Moscow, I'm again seeing many comments along the lines of "well, are we going to endure this again?", "when are we going to start a real war?", "why are we showing them any mercy?" and so on."
3/ "It's a rather convenient myth that Russia could immediately launch a devastating response, but we're simply not doing so out of nobility or some other notion held by our leadership. This is a half-truth.
1/ How did Ukraine strike Moscow yesterday? A Russian commentary provides a useful overview of the munitions that were used in the attack on the Moscow oil refinery. ⬇️
To strike the Russian capital, the enemy deployed a wide range of long-range fixed-wing UAVs. Ukrainian public groups report that these included, in particular, the AN-196 "Lyutyi," FP-1, "Bars," and "Bobr" drones.
3/ "AN-196 "Lyutyi". A long-range fixed-wing kamikaze drone, developed by the Antonov Design Bureau and manufactured by Ukroboronprom. It is constructed using an integrated twin-boom design with a pusher propeller and a fiberglass body.
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:
"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…