1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Iran is seeking to establish a pay-to-sail regime in the Strait of Hormuz, under which it could earn over a quarter of a billion dollars a day. A senior member of the Iranian parliament says that vessels seeking to transit the strait will be charged $2 million each time. ⬇️
2/ The Financial Times and Rudaw report that the Iranian government intends to fully monetise the strait by forcing passing ships to pay a fee for each passage. The "new regime" has been announced on state television by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a senior Iranian parliamentarian.
3/ Boroujerdi, a member of the parliament's National Security Committee, said that "For some ships which cross, for whatever reasons, Iran is charging them $2 million for the crossing ... In practice we have established a new regime governing the Strait of Hormuz after 47 years."
1/ Claims by pro-Russians that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Baltic ports went via Poland and the Baltic states have been met with scepticism by warblogger 'Fighterbomber'. If that's so, why has Russia not protested to those states?, he asks. ⬇️
2/ 'Fighterbomber', who has close links with the Russian Air Force, points out what Conan Doyle might have called the dog that didn't bark: the fact that the Russian government has said nothing about Ukrainian drones supposedly being routed over NATO territory:
3/ "Well, first of all, the airspace bordering Russia has been closed in countries like Poland and the Baltics for a long time.
Accusations from beauty bloggers that drones are being launched from the territory of these countries have been circulating for several years as well.
1/ With American ground forces building up in the Gulf region, much attention has been paid to Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf. But what about the Iranian-held islands in the Strait of Hormuz? Here's why they might be a higher priority for possible landings. ⬇️
2/ Seven Iranian-controlled islands punctuate the narrow strait between Iran and Oman: from west to east, Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak and Hormuz itself. All are part of Iran's Hormozgan province.
3/ Two more Iranian islands, Bani Forur and Sirri, are located further west, in the Persian Gulf proper. They have strategic value as locations for reconnaissance, surveillance of shipping traffic, and possible interdiction. Both have an Iranian military presence.
1/ The Ukraine war is a "dead end" which "could last for a hundred years", according to a gloomy Russian commentary. The transparency of the battlefield and its domination by drones has made large offensives "downright impossible" and is causing vast numbers of casualties. ⬇️
2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' has written a long and detailed analysis of the situation at the front lines, following similarly gloomy outlooks by other warbloggers (see the thread below).
3/ "I have repeatedly pointed out that the front in the Ukrainian theatre of military operations is in a stalemate. This situation took shape last year, marked by the Battle of Pokrovsk.
1/ An experiment by Russia's FSB has indicated that thousands of Russians are likely to be willing to carry out sabotage attacks on behalf of Ukraine or other foreign actors. In only three hours, the FSB recruited ten would-be saboteurs via Telegram. ⬇️
2/ Russia has experienced regular sabotage attacks carried out by people who have been recruited by foreign agents over the Internet, usually via Telegram. They are sometimes tricked into thinking they are working for the Russian security forces.
3/ More often, however, saboteurs act purely for money. Russia has used the same methodology to recruit saboteurs in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly concluding that the war in Ukraine is stalemated and cannot be won by military means. Two prominent warbloggers have published gloomy commentaries explaining why. ⬇️
2/ 'Fighterbomber', a blogger with links to the Russian Air Force, comments:
"We still have 15% of Donbas left to liberate, and then Donbas will be liberated.
In my opinion, we have three main options."
3/ "The first is to continue the creeping offensive with varying success, regardless of losses, which will be, to put it mildly, very heavy.
Judging by the current slow pace, that [needs] at least five years.