1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Russian soldiers are reportedly being punished by being sent into assaults with anti-tank mines strapped to their bodies, made to dig their own graves for complaining, and risk death delivering New Year's Eve alcohol and caviar for their commanders.
2/ Andrei Vladimirovich Shekhovtsev, a member of the Russian 60th Separate motorised rifle brigade (military unit 16871), says that his commanders are systematically abusing, extorting and killing the men under their command.
3/ He says that his evacuation group was ordered on the night of 1 January 2026 to deliver alcohol and red caviar to a command position for a celebration. He refused, citing the danger of Ukrainian attacks. The order was reissued to some Russian drone operators instead.
1/ A Russian general notorious for his incompetence is said to have been in charge of providing military advice to the former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Russian warbloggers complain that failing generals are often sent abroad, to the detriment of their hosts. ⬇️
2/ Roman Saponkov writes that "it turns out that General [Oleg Leontyevich] Makarevich was an advisor in Venezuela at the time of the US operation."
3/ "If anyone didn't know, he's another one of our generals who turned out to be so incompetent that he was k̶i̶c̶k̶e̶d̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶b̶r̶o̶t̶h̶e̶l̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ removed from command in the Armed Forces.
1/ Donald Trump should be assassinated and US ships sunk in revenge for the US seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker, say angry Russian warbloggers. Others worry that the episode shows Russia's weakness and inability to protect its own interests, just like in Venezuela. ⬇️
2/ 'Hard Blog' and others say that Russia needs to be ready to go to war, as mere words won't be a sufficient response to such a serious provocation:
3/ "The US has shifted from covert operations to demonstrations of force and provocations, seeking confrontation with us and China. When you've invested so much in the armed forces, what's the point of keeping them on a leash?
1/ False claims by Russian commanders to have captured Ukrainian towns and villages – a practice known as 'taking on credit' – have likely cost thousands of Russian lives through 2025. A Russian commentary highlights some of the most egregious claims. ⬇️
2/ The map above, published on the Russian Ministry of Defence's Telegram channel, claims control of settlements near Kupyansk that were never in Russian hands. Similar official maps show the Russian front line kilometres ahead of where independent observers place it.
3/ As discussed in the thread below, Russian commanders have many personal incentives to falsely claim captures. The result is that soldiers are often sent without support to (re)capture settlements that are already claimed to be under Russian control.
1/ Could Russia's special forces have carried out America's Venezuela operation? Almost certainly not, admit Russian warbloggers, as they say that the US SOF have capabilities, scale, a level of organisation, and effective management that their Russian equivalents lack. ⬇️
2/ The spectacular success of the US special forces in capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has led to some sober reappraisals among Russian warbloggers of the relative effectiveness of Russian and American special forces.
3/ 'Special-purpose channel' comments that the Venezuelan operation was "aimed at one specific target. This wasn't part of a large-scale invasion, but rather, our favourite 'in and out' strategy."
1/ Elon Musk faces a spiralling worldwide crisis and growing legal jeopardy over child pornography and nonconsensual sexual images being generated through his Grok AI chatbot. Multiple countries and jurisdictions have now announced investigations into X and xAI. ⬇️
2/ As reported by Reuters, many thousands of AI-generated sexual images have appeared on X over the Christmas and New Year period. They include images of real women being digitally undressed, repositioned in sexual poses, and covered in simulated semen ('donut glaze').
3/ The images created through Grok by X users have also reportedly included sexualised images of pre-teen children as young as four years old.