1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin is sceptical of "the mega-crook Donald and his cronies" and is confident there won't be a peace deal soon. In a fresh missive from prison, he draws attention to the Zaporizhzhia front, but says that Russia is unable to exploit successes there. ⬇️
2/ Replying to an earlier letter from a friend, he comments:
"Now we have yet another “sweet expectation of a quick and inevitable deal” (that is, a “compromise”), inspired by the statements of the mega-crook Donald and his cronies."
3/ "Naturally, my assessment of the situation hasn't changed at all: I'm confident there won't be a fixed deal, as we failed to achieve successes during the entire summer-fall campaign that went beyond the operational (at most, in isolated areas, but mostly beyond tactical).
1/ Russian State Duma deputy and surgeon Badma Bashankaev boasts that wounded Russian soldiers enjoy a 96% survival rate. Russian warbloggers point out, however, that only the lightly wounded usually get treated; most seriously injured Russians die on the battlefield. ⬇️
2/ Badma Bashankaev is a fervent supporter of Russia's war effort and represents Putin's United Russia party in the State Duma. He has recently appeared in an interview with state news agency TASS speaking about Russia's ostensible success in treating wounded soldiers.
3/ Russian warbloggers, however, are sceptical. Ilya Ovsyannikov writes in his 'INSTRUCTOR'S NOTES' Telegram channel that: "These statistics only show that the seriously wounded are not being transported and that they cannot organize a mass evacuation!!!"
1/ While Russia is making incremental advances in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian soldiers say that it's resulting in carnage among their units. Conditions at Stepnohirsk are said to be dire, with entire battalions virtually wiped out. ⬇️
2/ Russian soldiers fighting at Stepnohirsk on the road to Zaporizhzhia city have told the 'Brothers in Arms' Telegram channel that "the situation there is, to put it mildly, dire."
3/ "The battalion has been practically wiped out. Only company and platoon commanders, sergeants majors, and clerks remain. The rest are reinforcements who arrive, complete the training ground, and immediately go on to storm Stepnohirsk."
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns from his jail cell that Ukraine and the EU have no reason to accept the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposals to end the war, because Russia is currently incapable of inflicting a strategic defeat on Ukraine, despite local tactical victories. ⬇️
2/ The imprisoned Girkin has posted a lengthy analysis of the context of the 28-point plan (he says that he has not yet read the full content of the points, "which our media modestly remained silent about").
3/ In a perspective which likely reflects that of powerful factions within the Russian security establishment (with which he has been closely linked), he sees the situation as overall negative for Russia, with the fiasco surrounding the plan hurting its own people's morale:
1/ Russian soldiers are complaining that if they fall foul of military regulations in any way – such as having only 1 litre of water in their car instead of 2, or wearing a non-regulation patch – they face being arrested by the military police and forced into an assault squad. ⬇️
2/ The notoriously corrupt Russian military police have been hated and feared by Russian soldiers throughout the Ukraine war for their brutality and larceny. To the soldiers' frustration, they are now reportedly dragging men off to die in assault squads for petty infractions.
3/ A correspondent writes to the 'Vault No. 8' Telegram channel:
"Requirements for military drivers at the border (Rovenki checkpoint and others), what must be in the cabin:
- 2 litres of bottled water.
- Engine oil.
- Regulation winter uniform for military personnel."
1/ Why have so many supposedly MAGA accounts on X been exposed as being based in Nigeria? The answer may be linked to the unfortunate coincidence that the word "maga" in Nigerian Pidgin English means "a gullible person, a fool, or the unsuspecting victim of a scam". ⬇️
2/ "Maga" is widely believed to have evolved from the Yoruba word "múgùn" (or "mugu"), which translates to someone who can be easily manipulated or used as a "ladder to reach the top".
Calling someone a "maga" is an insult, implying they are simple, easily controlled, or naive.
3/ Some specific examples:
🔺 "Maga don pay": → A common phrase among scammers, meaning "the victim has paid up," indicating a successful swindle.
🔺 "Maga must pay": → Reflects the mindset that it is inevitable for a naive person to be conned.