1/ If Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had succeeded in 2022, Ukraine's industries would have been seized and taken over by Russian oligarchs. A leaked document shows that oligarch Konstantin Malofeev intended to create a 'DMZ Concern' from Ukraine's largest plants. ⬇️
2/ Malofeev is a billionaire who is a close supporter of Vladimir Putin and an aggressive promotor of religious conservatism. He's an overt monarchist who reportedly sees Putin as a new Tsar, and has links with far-right parties and individuals in Europe and the US.
3/ The EU, US and Canada have sanctioned Malofeev for trying to destabilise Ukraine and finance separatism. He's closely linked to pro-Russian separatists and was the former employer of Igor Girkin. He's been accused of funding radical nationalist movements across Europe.
4/ The DMZ Concern document, a presentation possibly dated 30 May 2022, was published recently by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. It sets out a business plan for the "expansion of production assets based on the results of the Special Military Operation".
5/ The first slide shows what appears to be the intended territorial division of a defeated Ukraine, with the whole of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts – up to the Moldovan and Romanian borders – under Russian control.
6/ This would have stripped Ukraine of its entire coastline, all its ports and much of its heavy industry, hydroelectric and mineral resources. It would have become an economically devastated and landlocked rump state, likely under the control of a pro-Russian puppet government.
7/ Slide 2 describes the 'DMZ concern' as a vastly expanded version of the existing Donetsk Metallurgical Plant (DMZ) company, which operates mines and other industrial enterprises in the 'Donetsk People's Republic'. It states a goal of achieving:
8/ "consolidation of existing financial, economic, technical and market opportunities of enterprises of key industries in the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions, which form the [economic] basis of the south-east region of the former Ukraine."
9/ After listing DMZ's existing holdings on slide 4 (#3 is missing), slide 5 of the plan lists "enterprises located in the liberated territories [that] are possible [candidates] for integration" with DMZ. They include some of Europe's largest mining and mineral processing plants.
10/ These include the Marganets Mining and Processing plant and the Nikopol Ferroalloy plant (both in Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Zaporizhzhia oblast and others. Slide 7 discusses a number of additional Ukrainian factories being considered for seizure.
11/ Slides 5.1 and 5.2 indicate that this was not just a theoretical exercise – the plan was already well advanced. Legal work had been done and management agreements had been signed as part of a three-stage plan to be carried out through 2022–2027.
12/ Interestingly, slide 5.3 lists among various business and growth goals for the 2023–2027 period an objective of achieving "Entry into the markets of friendly and sub-allied countries of Eurasian Economic Union, Middle East (Iran, Syria), South-East Asia, Turkey and Africa."
13/ The plan sets out a goal of aligning the DMZ Concern with a "strategic partner" (presumably Russian) and inclusion of its enterprises in "the state programmes of the Russian Federation." It also raises the possible takeover of Odesa port to serve DMZ.
14/ The end result, anticipated on slide 8, is the "reactivation of cooperation and activities of enterprises in the key sectors of the liberated territories of the DPR, LPR and south-eastern Ukraine…
15/ …in the form of a cumulative increase in annual financial indicators from RUR 70 billion [$990 million] (data for 2021) to RUR 220 billion [$3.1 billion] by 2024." This would achieve the "creation of a major enterprise in the interests of the Russian Federation."
16/ The slide indirectly acknowledges the impact of the DNR's large-scale mobilisation of fighting-age men, most of whom are now likely dead, by describing a goal of the "preservation of 8,616 jobs (excluding those mobilized)". It anticipates having over 16,000 workers by 2024.
17/ The plan doesn't specify where the extra workers would come from, but it's likely that – as has happened in Crimea – large numbers of people would be relocated from Russia to repopulate Ukraine's south-east, replacing the Ukrainians who have fled or been deported from there.
18/ Needless to say, the Ukrainian owners of the seized enterprises would not have received a kopek in compensation. With their collective value of billions of dollars, Malofeev was planning arguably the biggest heist in history – though it's now hopefully been thwarted. /end
1/ Russia's ongoing fuel crisis will soon lead to impacts far worse than queues at gas stations, warns a Russian warblogger. A logistical crisis is predicted, accompanied by shortages of raw materials and goods, along with soaring inflation. ⬇️
2/ Russia's huge size means that logistics drivers have to travel great distances between pickup and delivery points. With fuel increasingly being rationed, their ability to do this is being curtailed. 'Intelligence Diary' writes:
3/ "One of the less obvious consequences of the crisis: trucks are waiting in line at gas stations, getting 200 litres of fuel, which is enough for about 300-500 kilometers, depending on the road and the load. That's roughly six hours on average.
1/ President Alexander Lukashenko's unscheduled two-day meeting with Vladimir Putin is attracting interest and speculation from Russian commentators. Unusually, there has been no official comment about what was discussed, nor even a photo of the two leaders meeting. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Zhivov notes:
"No information about the meeting between the two presidents has been released to the press. Not a single comment or photo.
3/ "Obviously, the negotiations were urgent, went poorly, and the final decisions will be made after Lukashenko consults with Xi Jinping.
It's likely that China plays a much greater role in the Ukrainian conflict than it appears from the outside. What is that role?
1/ Is a rebellion brewing in the Russian army? A Russian soldier's video appeal to meet with Vladimir Putin to avert a mutiny over the appalling conditions on the frontline has gone viral, and has clearly struck a nerve at the Kremlin. ⬇️
2/ Alexander Lunin, a self-proclaimed Russian Ukraine war veteran, attracted widespread attention on 25 June when he published a startling video on Russian social media in which he claims to have met with government officials who asked them to convey certain demands to Putin.
3/ He says he wants to be broadcast live on a federal media channel, where he will tell "the whole truth about what is currently happening in the country," specifically about the murders, torture, and extortionist commanders at the front:
1/ The continued success of Ukraine's FP-5 'Flamingo' cruise missile in hitting targets deep inside Russia is causing frustration and anger among Russian warbloggers. They criticise Russian air defences, but concede clever Ukrainian tactics. ⬇️
2/ The fact that Volgograd – the former Stalingrad – was hit is seen as particularly symbolic and insulting to Russia. Vladimir Romanov complains that Russia's leadership is shying away from ordering Ukraine's leaders to be killed and Kyiv nuked to deter such attacks:
3/ "Looking at the footage of today's leisurely flight of FP-5 "Flamingo" missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Volgograd - I ask myself: if our air defence has degraded to such an extent - what will happen if NATO countries decide to launch a massive strike?
1/ Russia's fuel crisis isn't just about a lack of fuel being produced by refineries. The country is in the grip of a full-blown fuel panic, with people buying far more fuel than normal to get ahead of shortages and in some cases to resell fuel for profit. ⬇️
2/ As the 'Intelligence Diary' Telegram channel reports:
"Russia is gripped by a fuel panic.
People are buying up gasoline by the hundreds of litres. There are huge queues at gas stations. Prices are rising.
It's a real fuel scare.
A true gasoline vendetta."
3/ 'New Look' reports:
"In response to government calls not to stockpile fuel, Muscovites emptied auto parts stores en masse, buying up every canister. This was immediately taken advantage of by resellers, who are now reselling the containers online at a significant markup."
1/ A Russian military police officer who stole 2 million rubles from a mentally disabled recruit was sent to an assault unit. However, illustrating the current state of morale on the front lines, he and three comrades reportedly blew their own legs off to avoid going to fight. ⬇️
2/ Russian warblogger 'BCh3' tells the story in three posts:
"We usually write about heroes, but here we have an anti-hero. One of those who profit from war; one of those who ‘while some suffer, others benefit’. Meet one of the staff officers of the Military Police."
3/ "Briefly, the situation...
A training ground. New arrivals are undergoing training. One of the fighters is a quiet guy, but something is wrong with his head. He is unwell.