Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello there!
Have a good day my friends!

1/ small recap from this night and this morning actions (only where it has make a diff) :

2/ In the #Bakhmut surroundings, #UAarmy has repelleed some direct attacks by the Ru in the areas of #Rozdolivka, #Vasyukivka, #Paraskoviyivka, #Bakhmut south /west
indicating that now, and for certain, Ru troops have globally crosser the river & are directly moving on.
it

3/ seems to me from the raports i have checked and reports i've read from diff units that Ukr in the area have greatly suffered from having lots of losses in past months of direct battle & young soldiers with no much experiences except from 4 months, r not entirely up to the task

4/ which is not to blame, but not surprising; some more experienced units have been called to help there and Ukr are still holding the high grounds everywhere on this side of the river.. but as you can tell from this topo map, Ru are quite close in the West Hills facing them, so

5/ they are moving in very specific directions to take the best advantages of their dynamic now, & they are 2 click away from their next "big" targets.. to take the high grounds.
Basically & logically Ukr could & should annihilate them there, because they got huge advantages,

6/ but it is quite obvious now, it is absolutely not working like that right now.
Ukr are under equipped to make them at night, (when western better night equipment should make the diff) & also lack of number of men and support.

this one thing that is driving me mad also is

7/ people are talking about tanks and tanks but right there, you need good trained units, tons of mortars like Ru have, enough personal to have rotation all day/night long, and enough ammo to fight properly.
freedom is a shield in our mind, not on a battle field.
need more there

8/ Also right no there are good positions for Ukrainian to defend on the higher ground above #Blahodatne , i've learned that Ru who are far from being stupid here have already brings mortar & kornets to attack defender of #KrasnaHora in the "back" & it will "pay" eventually...

9/ So right now, as far as i understand the situation the front line could be stabilized like this ... but it's an approximation & dyn is so intense right now, that it is extremely fluid.
we'll see later on.

10/ Next is the situation On the #Kreminna - #Svatove axis : Ru attempted assaults in the areas of #Yampolivka & #Bilohorivka. did not succeed but 2 days in a row. they have gained ground there & are willing to go deep.
the Ukr defense was totally surprised there, too
& Ukr had

11/ totally reconfigured their first defensive line.
the good thing though is that #Dibrova and #Kreminna have been reported as shelled again, & i checked Ru agrees, there are not "there" anymore.. it was a "one push" to try to go along with the offensive to #Yampolivka but

12/ they just failed (bad terrain, troops there) to really flush UKR out.
so this is still good news, Ukr won't have to do one more time all the hard jobs in these woods.
but there are tons of Ru reinforcements though. new kids on the block there.

13/ quick note about #Yampolivka area. same remark as before, u don't need super MBTs there, you need real good fast IFVs APCs Marderds/Bradleys, & a fck real CAS for Christ sake !
& that will do ! no tank or F-16, just good old direct quick/nimble yet punchy enough fire support

14/ As for the other directions of direct constant Ru moves : "Ukrainian defenders repelled attacks by the Russian fascist invaders in the areas of... & #Paraskoviyivka, #Bakhmut, #Ivanivske, #Klishchiyivka, #Kurdyumivka and #Ozaryanivka
check my #UkraineMaps made yesterday !-)

15/ and elsewhere they are just regrouping and preparing next offensives & or just grinding their way through small streets in tiny abandoned villages...
& #Vuhledar its still moving on fast but hard to tell precisely... even if Russia just claimed some advances right now!

16/ and last report of alleged Ru losses today (so for "quite day" yesterday... but it'll increase this week.. and quite dramatically in some areas)
that's it for today!