Tim Gardner Profile picture
Jan 30 9 tweets 3 min read
Today's urgent and emergency care recovery plan - a quick🧵

TLDR: Pragmatic set of measures to improve flow and ease UEC pressures, but underpowered and too focused on finding short-term fixes for long-term problems
Ambulance services and A&E departments are under huge pressure, leading to longer response times, delayed handovers and long waits.

Behind the numbers are patients left in pain, enduring unnecessary suffering and, in some cases, lives tragically lost.

Fundamentally, UEC performance is about patient flow into, through and out of hospital - not just what happens in ambulances or A&E

📈in response times, trolley waits and delayed discharges all point to problems with flow

health.org.uk/publications/t…
UEC plan wants to see:
🚨76% in 4 hours in A&E by Mar 2023
🚨Ave 30 min C2 ambulance response in 2023/24

Is this really "one of the fastest and longest sustained improvements in emergency waiting times in the NHS's history"?

Yes, but only because performance has fallen so far
Does the recovery plan offer credible solutions?

Diagnosis of the problem is broadly right and there's a welcome focus on the wider causes of UEC pressures, not just core ambulance and A&E performance.

Credit to @DHSCgovuk and @NHSEngland for that
Some new measures, but others are existing commitments

E.g. new ambulances, SDEC, mental health support, rapid community response etc... all from #NHSLongTermPlan

Good steps, but hardly a step change - especially with shortages of workforce and capacity in NHS and social care
New commitments to boosting hospital and community capacity are welcome

But, longer term, caring for ageing population and getting bed occupancy down will need even more acute capacity plus corresponding increase in non-acute and social care capacity

health.org.uk/publications/r…
The lack of long-term is reflected in the ambitions for UEC performance - no specifics beyond 2023/24

FYI - from the terrible winter of 1999/2000 and setting 4 hour A&E target in 2000 to getting performance consistently above 95% took 5 years

health.org.uk/publications/r…
The underlying causes of this crisis reflect political decisions over many years

A long-term approach to recovery is needed. This includes expanding social care, plans for staff recruitment and retention and sufficient funding - all still missing

/End

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More from @TimGardnerTHF

Jan 12
Response to today's @NHSEngland stats.

Started in health policy 22 years ago. Been working with these stats on & off for 15 years - mainly on. I cannot remember a worse time for urgent & emergency care.

This is about much more than cold weather, flu, COVID or strikes. Short🧵
COVID made existing problems worse, but NHS performance was already going in the wrong direction long before the pandemic.

As @Quality_Watch analysis has shown.

Go back further, and what has become the 'annual NHS winter crisis' wasn't inevitable. There's a reason for that.

Is the term 'NHS winter crisis' becoming more common? fullfact.org/health/nhs-win… via @FullFact
Read 6 tweets
Oct 15, 2019
Recently back from the @CareQualityComm launch event for #StateOfCare 2018/19.

Full report is here: cqc.org.uk/publications/m…

But if you're short on time here's my take on the key points.

Sound the #thread klaxon /1
Most media coverage I've seen focused on A&E departments (see example below).

That's an important story (discussed below) but it doesn't feel radically new - we get a lot of data on A&E every month via @NHSEnglandStats /2

More people are going to A&E but that's largely been driven by attendances at minor injuries.

The bigger problem is the growth in emergency admissions, which suggests more patients with more severe or complex needs: health.org.uk/publications/e…

/3
Read 10 tweets

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