Thread by @SuneEngel

“Many people say that if they get killed in the protest, their family will die of hunger.”

My new piece on why protests in #Iran have quieted down - for now. There are several reasons for this, as explained in the piece, and below 🧵

wsj.com/articles/iran-… #iranprotests

First, it’s important to point out while street protests have tapered off, a quieter form of rebellion has taken hold. Embers of discontent continue to smolder and will flare up again for sure, even if authorities have the upper hand for now. (2/9)

Thousands of women in Tehran now walk outside without a hijab. It’s a new form of civil disobedience that will be difficult to contain in the future. There’s a limit to how many teenagers and young women the state can beat and arrest before things implode. Iran knows that (3/9)

Protests have become more frequent in the past decade, and are driven by a young generation who increasingly outnumber the aging vanguard of the 1979 revolution. They challenge the fundamental tenets of the Islamic Republic, and their grievances remain strong and intact (4/9)

But the govt crackdown has been brutal. 100s of protesters have been blinded by rubber bullets and metal pellets. 500+ protesters have been killed. 1000s have been arrested. At least 16 have been sentenced to death, and 4 executed (5/9)

So in the short term, as prospects for ousting the leadership shrink, fewer people are willing to risk their lives to try. That has left the protest movement w/out enough popular support to carry out national strikes or mass demonstrations needed to force regime change (6/9)

Also: the economy. Economic hardship can fuel protests, as we have seen in the past, but it can also make it harder to sustain a movement for weeks/months on end. Protesting requires resources, time, and most importantly hope that your efforts will pay off (7/9)

The lack of organization and leadership has made it hard to sustain the protest movement. Protesters in Tehran recognize this, and several of them told me they are pondering how to create a stronger, more coherent movement (8/9)

Ofc lack of support for the movement doesn’t equal support for the government. As @JafariPeyman told me:

“Many Iranians have come to the conclusion that the regime isn’t viable, but they have not come to the conclusion that this revolt is viable” (9/9) #iranprotests