Glanced through the #EconomicSurvey report. A very detailed report covering many parameters, a few of them from chapter 1: 1. Global Economic crises were severe but spaced out but since 2020 we have faced 3 of them. 2000s - Dotcom Bust, Great Recession; 2010s - taper tantrum;
Trade tension between China & US; 2020s - COVID 19, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Monetary Tightening & its just 2023 we still have 7 more years! so, interesting times
2. Commodity prices post the pandemic have risen and not gone back to pre pandemic levels so inflation is high
3. The rate hike by central banks have been very steep this time around which is expected to cause a lot of pain by destroying the demand.
The chart below gives you an idea. In 2010s you had 0% fed rates and now in 1 year the rates are up by 425 bps. Interesting times!
4. This led to FPIs selling Indian markets but we did not crack! which speaks volumes about the capacity of domestic institutions to absorb this selling!
In 2008-09 FIIs sold only ~1/3rd of this & NIFTY went down to ~2250 from ~6500
5. India is the country with the highest GDP growth when the entire world is teetering. Very few ppl understand this
6. This table that shows the inherent strength in the system. The ~35 crore households have only ~36% of the total debt in India & the Government & industries have ~80% each.
HH debt in China is ~62% & US it is 76%. Industries are levered 220% in China & 155% in the US
Indian HH are better equipped to handle a crisis. This has a strong linkage to our culture that abhors debt. There is no other factor!
7. Our Current Account Deficit has widened but we have enough Forex reserves as cover. Exports might take a hit cos of global recession
8. Not one major organization has predicted a lower growth rate for India. One of the main reason has been the private consumption that has touched almost ~60% in H1FY23. This was lower at ~55 to 56% in the previous 7 years. could be pent up demand but we need to wait & see
9. This pent up demand was visible in the housing market as well. Home loans reported ~16%+ growth in the system with lower inventory over hang in the system.
10. Capex push by the center was huge & Private is also expected to participate.
11. Good growth has led to buoyant tax collections but moderate increase in the expenditure keeping the fiscal deficit under control even during COVID years
12. Private sector capex was at ~3.3lakh crores in H1FY23. With stronger balance sheets Indian corporates have been able to borrow for growth and the Banking system post the NPA crisis in 2017 is also pitching in. SME credit has picked up as well.
13. Urban unemployment rate has been at a 4 year low of 7.2%. This means that growth has returned and has created jobs as well post the Pandemic, which augurs well for the future.
On the whole India is strong with:
- good demand from the HHs
- strong balance sheet & spending from the corporates
- good govt spending
- strong balance sheet & credit growth in the banking system
concerns - global slowdown that might hit the exports
Will do a highlight of the Chapter 2 depending on the response that this thread gets.!
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A lot of views are going around talking about how people align with a political party and what makes them change their affinity!
I'm just telling you about my experience here:
Early 2000s - turned 18, was totally uninformed politically, but was friends with many mid-20s ppl..
..all of them were ADMK or DMK supporters, but I don't think they were well informed. None of them were BJP supporters. For the matter of fact I remember one of them cracking a joke when L.K.Advani's name appeared in the most wanted list in Pakistan
I don't remember much about what was happening in TN when Godhra train burning happened but I bought into the narrative that BJP leaders were terrorists and most wanted criminals across the world.
Was politically indifferent and remember voting for ADMK in 2004 & 2006
I've always wanted to do the Sapta Sivalayam Darshanam in one evening, and I accomplished it today!
I urge everyone to do it when they have the time
It is said that Saptarishis have prayed to Shiva here!
A thread!
1. Karaneeswarar
This temple is the abode of Sri Karaneeswarar and Porkodi Amman. Karana means cause. Karana + Iswara = Karaneeswara, the Lord who is the Cause.
He is the primordial cause of this universe. He teaches us the causality behind all events.
2. Sri Theerthapaleeswarar -
This temple is the abode of Sri Theerthapaleeswarar and Tripurasundari. In ancient times, there were 64 sacred theertha ponds from this temple leading right up to the nearby sea.
Agasthiar taught the Aditya Hridaya mantra to Lord Sri Rama
The latest Supreme Court judgment on CEC is a classic example of how a government with a simple majority can be relegated to the sidelines by an unbridled judiciary!
I do not know what's on the minds of the govt now, but whatever it is, this doesn't paint a great picture!
People who say "trust Modi, to do the right thing" do not seem to understand the seriousness of the issue.
Case 1: Indian parliament passes a legislation to mine lithium or some rare earth that will give us a head start in the EV race. The SC can derail it...
..through some misplaced sense of self righteousness or some constitutional "morality" or some other fancy word.
Case 2: Imagine the parliament passes a resolution to amend the constitution. The SC can stop the amendment, stating some proviso that no one would understand!
Here goes!
First tweet
I'll tell you why I have my doubts with the 2-year timeline.
For e.g. 1. Information is already publicly available - there was an "alleged" scheme in 2004-05 2. Downloading & cataloging Mauritius shell entities won't take 2 yrs
I went through the entire #HindenburgReport (comes to 100 pages if you try to save it as a pdf)
My first set of observations:
1. I don't know why this would take 2 years to publish this report unless you had multiple other projects to work on in parallel
2. Timing of the release seems dubious, especially when Adani is looking to raise capital
3. A similar type of research on any conglomerate in the world would yield similar results - so, nothing unique in the findings
4. The phrase "Stock Manipulation" is used frequently..
.. and we do not know in which category this "manipulation" come under
5. I have very little reason to believe that this is some anti-India propaganda. This is purely driven by earnings money through the "short" trade. People can spin whatever they want though