Thread by @WilliamYang120

Following Czech president-elect @general_pavel and #Taiwan President @iingwen held a phone call on Monday, I talked to @_JakubJanda and @ivana_karaskova about what the call means and how #China might retaliate against Prague. My latest: dw.com/zh/%E5%8F%B0%E…

According to @_JakubJanda, Pavel's call with Tsai is a continuation of increased political ties by the Czech political establishment.

"To the rest of the world and to other democracies in Europe, he is sending a message that’s saying 'we should engage with Taiwan at the highest political level,' which is something that the European Parliament already called for in its official resolution," he told me.

" We have a government in Prague since last year which called for engaging with Taiwan. What the new president is doing, despite being independent of the government, he is taking it a bit further than the current government is," he added.

@ivana_karaskova said that Pavel signaled his intentions to direct foreign policy differently than the current president Zeman, who has been a stauch proponent of “pragmatic economic diplomacy” mostly towards China and Russia.

"Pavel emphasizes the Western orientation of Czechia, country’s membership in NATO and EU and the return of values-based policy introduced first by Václav Havel," she told me.

"He went so far as responding yes to a journalist’s question at one of the pre-election interviews asking whether he would visit Taiwan if elected a president. The move would be unprecedented as acting presidents of EU member states seldom visit while in office," she added.

Janda said while the role of the president is more of a ceremonial head of state, but in the current context, the president can actually be very visible in foreign policy and he could be the spokesperson of the state when the government executes the policies.

"What this would mean is that the new president is going to be more hawkish than the government on issues like engaging with Taiwan or standing up to Chinese pressure," he told me.

"That’s going to be his role while the government may be a bit more cautious or more silent. It will support the president on the practical level, as that’s what we’ve seen even today," he added.

Following the call with Pavel, Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen said through her office that while both sides are actively promoting collaboration in trade, investment, technology, education, and tourism, ...

... Taiwan is also willing to explore collaboration with the Czech Republic in areas such as semiconductor design, and the cultivation of talent for advanced technology.

She also promised to encourage Taiwanese businesses to make the Czech Republic the base for their operation in Central and Eastern Europe.

Apart from these areas, Janda said there is increasing security cooperation between the Czech Republic and Taiwan.

"Both sides are not so public about it but the effort by many people in Prague can actually allow the Czech government to conduct more security cooperation from intelligence sharing on China to military assistance in the future," he said.

"It will mainly be purchases or acquisition of weapons, as the Czech Republic has a strong defense industry. There has been quite a high level visit from Taiwan to Prague in July last year, with major Taiwanese defense companies visiting their Czech counterparts ...

... and the Czech defense ministry hosted them. That’s pretty rare in the European context," he added.

He said there are a lot of discussions between Czech and Taiwanese defense industry counterparts, and the hope is that it might come to fruition and there might be joint weapons deals in the future, which could work both ways.

"For that, they will need political support because the Czech government needs to approve the export licensing for any weapon system being transferred to Taiwan," he told me.

Even though several central and eastern European countries have tried to deepen ties with Taiwan over the last few years, Karaskova said it remains to be seen whether other countries will follow Prague's footsteps in further elevating engagement with Taiwan.

"Yet Czechia has already a history of paving the way for others, for example, when Milos Vystrcil, the Czech Senate President, traveled to Taipei in 2020 despite China’s threats," she told me.

Janda from @_EuropeanValues said the hopes in Prague and Vilnius is that those bold but principled steps will actually show other European countries that it’s actually safe to deepen ties with Taiwan as China won’t destroy you after you take such a step.

"It makes sense politically and economically to engage with Taiwan so it’s a smart thing to do for other countries," he told me.

"Other Central and Eastern European countries are waiting to see whether countries that have established closer ties with Taiwan will face huge economic retaliation or whether it will be seen as a safe way forward, with the US support," he added.

During the daily presser on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Pavel ignored several attempts from #China to urge him not to hold the call with Tsai, and his insistence on interacting with officials in Taiwan has seriously interfered with China's ...

... domestic affairs. Facing criticism from Beijing, Janda said there are two ways that China may retaliate against the Czech Republic.

"One is more symbolic, which is China freezing some of the contracts for Czech companies in China and that’s something we’ve seen after the Czech Senate speaker’s visit to Taiwan.

It was very symbolic, as it was only a couple of companies affected and it’s very minor. It took several weeks for these companies to be unfrozen and went back to normal," he told me.

"Since there is very little direct economic cooperation and direct trade between China and the Czech Republic, so there is not much that China can do for the Czech Republic," he added.

He said China may also pressure other European companies in China to drop Czech contractors, which was what happened to Lithuania.

"But that would be a major escalation and it would trigger a reaction by the European Union since there are new tools in the EU’s toolbox in terms of how to respond to economic coercion," he said.

"At the same time, China is trying to play nice in Europe now, and they are trying to pivot away from the Wolf Warrior diplomacy.

If they try to attack Czech Republic, which means an attack on the EU internal markets, that will basically contradict the Chinese foreign policy line now," he said.