#CrisisManagement: Saakashvili's imprisonment may become a potential crisis for the ruling party in Georgia, where more than 50% of the population is dissatisfied with the way the government fulfills the conditions for the EU bid. These are three baseline scenarios:⤵️
1) Positive scenario: the Georgian govt tries to exchange the amicable settlement of Saakashvili's case, transferring him to Ukraine, with a favorable decision on the EU's conditions for obtaining candidate status like Moldova and Ukraine.⤵️
2) Moderate scenario: Saakashvili's health deteriorates further, while the EU decides to limit political dialogue and financial support in the form of punishment. As long as the Georgian economy continues to grow, the government will not back down.⤵️
3) Negative scenario: Saakashvili's health leads to fatal results. The EU applies certain radical measures against the Georgian govt (political, financial and including sanctions under the EU Magnitsky Act for human rights violations, following or not a US decision). This is⤵️
done before the 2024 general election. The political costs of political animosities with the West affect the electoral performance of the ruling party in Georgia, with uncertain results for the future composition of the parliament.
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