Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Feb 2 5 tweets 1 min read
#RiskReduction: 16 members of the European Commission, including von der Leyen herself, are in Kyiv to attend the EU-Ukraine summit. This is a very important event, especially from a symbolic point of view (expression of solidarity). The fact that so many senior EU officials⤵️
are in Kyiv means that the Ukrainian authorities have provided sufficient security guarantees regarding air defense capabilities against possible Russian missile attacks. In such high-risk conditions, the tragic event related to the 2010 plane crash of the large Polish⤵️
delegation, which also included Lech Kaczinski. In 2022, Polish investigators accused Russia of contributing to the plane crash. However, I think that Russia would prefer not to launch⤵️
rockets at Ukraine during this summit (or at least not in the direction of Kyiv or its official buildings) so as not to give a personal experience of urgency to EU officials who are already working on the 10th package of sanctions.⤵️
In any case, maximum security must be provided because Russia is capable of anything, even if it seems unreasonable to us.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Feb 2
#Moldova: The country is on a high alert after MFA Lavrov stated in a interview that NATO/West would be interested in repeating “Ukrainian scenario” in Moldova. This statement coincide with the warnings from Ukraine thar Russia is readying a massive attack, which could have⤵️
repercussions on Moldova too. The two ways in which Russia can effectively pose military risks to Moldova are the following: 1) missiles attacks (various rockets have already landed in Moldova in 2022-23; or 2) via Transnistria. The first one is more likely than the second one.⤵️
Explainer: a) if Russia uses militarily Transnistria, Ukrainian army will react with preventive actions (not waiting for a consent of Moldova); b) Tranistrian separatist elites seek to preserve peace for survival purpose. If Ukraine strikes, the separatist regime will no cope⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Feb 2
#EU_Gas: In preparation for the coming winter, the EU must consider 3 main scenarios: 1) gas pipeline from Russia supplied through Ukraine and Turkey in the current pace; 2) the only pipeline supply is through the Turkishstream (Russia decides to stop the flow through Ukraine);⤵️
3) All pipeline gas supply from Russia is stopped. There are two structural variables that will influence the liquidity of the gas market: 1) reduction of internal energy consumption; 2) the access of LNG in the global market.⤵️
An intervening variable is the climatic condition that can impact the situation positively or negatively for security of supply.⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
#CrisisManagement: Saakashvili's imprisonment may become a potential crisis for the ruling party in Georgia, where more than 50% of the population is dissatisfied with the way the government fulfills the conditions for the EU bid. These are three baseline scenarios:⤵️
1) Positive scenario: the Georgian govt tries to exchange the amicable settlement of Saakashvili's case, transferring him to Ukraine, with a favorable decision on the EU's conditions for obtaining candidate status like Moldova and Ukraine.⤵️
2) Moderate scenario: Saakashvili's health deteriorates further, while the EU decides to limit political dialogue and financial support in the form of punishment. As long as the Georgian economy continues to grow, the government will not back down.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
#CrisisManagement: During the state of emergency in 2022, Moldova's government adopted 55 decisions through the Committee on Emergency Situations. 1) These decisions were with the repeal of 90 laws, including 13 organic laws (codes). The govt wants to extend ⤵️
the state of emergency for another 60 days. 2) The opposition criticizes the decision arguing that the ruling party has a comfortable majority in parliament and controls the government. 3) The state of emergency allows the government to make almost⤵️
any decision (even if the scope of the state of emergency is limited to questions of security and security of supply in the energy field), except those that could require the consent of the Constitutional Court. 4) This also leads to deviations from the transparency⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
#Critical_Infrastructure: Today the construction of the gas interconnection between Serbia and Bulgaria began. The pipeline will also be equipped for reverse flow capacities (170 km, 1.8 bm3 per year). The EU is financing the lion share of this critical infrastructure to⤵️
ensure the security of gas supplies to the Western Balkans. Indirectly, this will reduce dependence on imports from Russia through the Trans-Balkan pipeline. There is still a strong possibility that Serbia will end up importing Russian gas, in a way or another, through the⤵️
Southern Corridor (Azerbaijan is importing gas from Russia to cover the internal deficit) or through terminals in Bulgaria and Turkey. The EU is financing the Bulgarian segment with almost €34 million (energy and structural funds),⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Feb 1
#Russia: Georgian President Zurabishvili advocates the idea that, as part of the post-war peace deal, Russia should leave all occupied territories in the post-Soviet space, not just Ukraine. She is referring to Abkhazia and Ossetia, which have been under Russian occupation ⤵️
since the 2008 war, which was a prelude to Russia's 2014-2023 wars against Ukraine. The idea is not bad and Moldova should join this initiative, which should be formalized and institutionalized with the help of the EU and the G7. At the Georgian level, the problem is⤵️
that the government is tolerant towards Russia (warming the ties in the time of war). From a more global strategic perspective, Ukraine needs collective support to defeat Russia and prepare the conditions for a peace deal in accordance with Ukraine's national interests.⤵️
Read 5 tweets

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