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Feb 2 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
A ๐Ÿงตon ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ + ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ losses per @Volya_media, for 12/9/22-1/31/23.

Losses = Killed, Missing, POW

TLDR:
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 39.3k- 39.6k Losses (133k -137k total)
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 114.3k- 114.4k WIA (291k-305k total)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 15.3k- 15.4k Losses (62.2-65.8k total)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 59k- 59.1k WIA (148k-154.6k total)

1/8
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RU losses breakdown 12/9/22-1/31/23.

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บArmy (including DPR/LPR):
15,490 -15,600 losses
60,801-60,969 WIA

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บNatl Guard:
130-150 losses
402-410 WIA

Wagner/PMCs:
23,700-23,870 losses
52,940-53,100 WIA

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บNavy/Marines:
0 casualties (no data)

~2,850 casualties/day

2/8
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆUA losses breakdown 12/9/22-1/31/23.

346- 360 losses due to rear line strikes.

840- 850 WIA due to rear line strikes.

15,046- 15,107 losses on all fronts .

58,290- 58,305 WIA on all fronts (including sick leave).

~1,380 casualties/day.

3/8
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RU overall losses until 1/31/23:

133,100- 137,731 losses (~394/day).
~30% are MIA.

291,295- 304,964 WIA (~869/day)
~40% are lightly wounded, most return to duty.

Not all are wounded at same time.

Total casualties: 424.4k- 442.7k in 343 days
(~1264 a day)

4/8
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆUA overall losses until 1/31/23:

62,233- 65,823 losses (~143/day)
~20% are MIA

148,782- 154,643 WIA ( ~442/day)
~50% are lightly wounded, most return to duty.

Total casualties: 211k- 220.5k (~628/day)

UA counts UAF, NGU, TDF, Police, Intl Legion in these figures.

5/8
Regarding the casualty counts, which fluctuate, and do not follow the traditionally quoted standards of (1:3 or 1:5):

RU Battlefield medicine is extraordinarily poor. Lots of survivable wounds become deadly.

Lightly wounded UA soldiers often refuse to leave the front.

6/8
Regarding Missing In Action:

~20% of UA Losses are MIA, and ~30% of RU losses.

Generally MIA means they are dead. Sometimes they are captured, or deserters.

There are more UA POW's then RU POW's, and vastly more RU deserters then UA.

Wagner has poor KIA accounting.

7/8
Regarding sources and methods:

@Volya_media
Has been tracking RU/UA casualties via numerous sources since the early days of the war, and have had their data echoed by other estimates.

They are RU-language media, but very much anti-Putin.

Here's their breakdown:

8/8๐Ÿงต

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More from @LanguageIearner

Dec 12, 2022
A ๐Ÿงตon RU + UA losses per @Volya_media, for 11/8/22-12/8/22.

Losses = Killed, Missing, POW

TLDR:
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 21,320- 21,380 Losses (93.8k-98.1k total)
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 43,200- 43,469 WIA (177k-190.5k total)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 7,900- 8,100 Losses (47.2k-50.3k total)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 23,980- 24,000 WIA (89.6k-95.5k total)

1/11 ImageImage
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RU losses breakdown 11/8-12/8/22

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บArmy (including DPR/LPR):
11,830-11,850 losses
24,708-24,768 WIA

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บNatl Guard:
1,100-1,120 losses
2,420-2,550 WIA

Wagner/PMCs:
8,293-8,297 losses
15,940-16,010 WIA

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บNavy/Marines:
100 losses
130-139 WIA

~2,156 casualties/day

2/11 ImageImage
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆUA Losses for 11/8-12/8/22

110- 130 losses due to rear line missile strikes.

202- 206 WIA due to rear line missile strikes.

7,790- 7,970 losses on all fronts .

23,778- 23,794 WIA on all fronts (including sick leave).

~1,066 casualties/day.

3/11 ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
4th RRB Voices from Bakhmut:

"Our infantry is fighting flawlessly - otherwise Bakhmut would have fallen long ago"

The NGU soldier with the call sign "Krafter" is performing tasks as part of the 3rd Battalion of the Rapid Reaction Brigade "Svoboda".

๐Ÿงต1/8 Image
Like many of his colleagues, Krafter is a volunteer who joined the ranks of the National Guard, and later the 4th RRB after February 24, when he found the full-scale Russian invasion in his hometown as he woke up to rocket attacks early in the morning down the road.

2/8 Image
" It was no longer possible to wait, to sit. I went from my hometown to Kyiv - I just got into the car with volunteers, not knowing where exactly fate would throw me. Later I got to the "Svoboda" battalion, where I am currently serving."

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
A thread on continued RU/UA op in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆOPCOM South forces, Kherson TG, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆsoldiers + others.

TLDR: RU is abandoning its positions, collapsing to defend around Kherson city and the Kahkovka dam.

I'm using @AndrewPerpetua's map.

๐Ÿงต1/9
To the NW of Kherson city, the 1st ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บline of defense, from Pravdyne-Snihurivka, is completely abandoned to the W of the Inhulets river.

The 2nd ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ line (Tomyna Balka- Chornobaika area) is reportedly in process of withdrawal.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆis advancing here, slowly and methodically.
2/9
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Soldiers in and around Kherson city proper are preparing for an urban defense, with heavy mining of the city, suburbs, and civilian infrastructure such as homes and fields.

A regiment of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ combat engineers are being deployed to aid in this effect. They came from Donetsk.
3/9
Read 10 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
So, no update tonight beyond the Kherson one earlier.

In the meantime: a Congressional Research Service report on the Ukrainian Military Performance and Outlook:

crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IFโ€ฆ
The report covers 4 topics : personnel, equipment, Western security assistance, and the current Ukrainian military performance and outlook. A brief summary of each section is found below:
Personnel:
Part of UA's impressive performance is due to the experience in combat and motivation of its personnel since 2014. They integrated quickly in 2022.

However, a high level of combat casualties and small recruitment base (as compared to Russia) are limiting factors.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
A thread on RU withdrawal and UA offensives in Kherson region. Sources from @Volya_media, UA OPCOM South, + others.

As of 10 PM on 11/9/22. East of the Inhulets river, UA is advancing towards Beryslav and the Kahkovka dam. RU is pulling some troops in to cover this area.

๐Ÿงต1/10
RU soldiers and equipment are being withdrawn across the Dnieper River near Beryslav and over the dam. The crossing and the dam are not currently shelled.

RU brigades and 3 of the 4 RU units who were just deployed here with fresh mobikis are apparently withdrawing already.

2/10
West of the Inhulets River the situation is different. The bridgehead around Kherson and inside the city itself is held by 13k to 16k RU soldiers

RU is abandoning certain areas of the first line of defense, which runs from Pravdyne in the west to Snihurivka in the east.

3/10
Read 11 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
A short thread on RU + UA losses per @Volya_media, for 10/26/22-11/7/22.

Losses = Killed, Missing, POW

TLDR:
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 6280 - 6334 Losses (72.4k-76.7k total)
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ 12311- 12610 WIA (133.7k-147k total)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 2521- 2590 Losses (39.3k-42.3k total)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ 6507- 6620 WIA (65.6k-71.5k total)

๐Ÿงต1/6
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RU recent losses breakdown 10/26-11/7/22

RU Army:
6,030-6,050 losses
11,720-12,000 WIA

RU National guard:
150-180 losses
418-430 WIA

Wagner/PMCs:
69-73 losses
106-110 WIA
(I think more)

Black Sea Fleet:
31 losses
67-70 WIA

~1,564 causalities/day

2/6
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆUA Losses for 10/27-11/7/22:

181- 190 losses far from the front line due to missile strikes

407- 420 WIA far from the front line due to missile strikes

2,340- 2,400 losses on all fronts

6,100- 6,200 WIA on all fronts (including sick leave)

~709 casualties/day

3/6
Read 7 tweets

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