Given China’s macroeconomic environment in December 2022, the following policies should be taken to boost China’s economic growth and deal with potential risks, said ZHANG Bin, CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow: 1/5
1. Lower interest rate by 25 bps each time until the employment and growth targets are hit. 2. Issue new types of fiscally subsidized bonds and policy loans to support investment in public goods and quasi-public goods infrastructure projects that feature limited returns.2/4
3. Set up special funds to help market entities battered during the pandemic get back on their feet; increase the amount of living allowance for low-income groups. 3/5
3. Set up special funds to help market entities battered during the pandemic get back on their feet; increase the amount of living allowance for low-income groups. 3/5
4. Stabilize normal financing for #realestate companies;introduce market-based competition on mortgage rates to reduce households’ debt burdens. To resolve the developers’ debt burdens, conduct pilot projects to convert some developers’ housing stock into subsidized housing.4/5
At the 4th Bund Summit, experts looked back on the asset management sector in China over the five years from the release of the new asset-management rules till their delivery. 1/6
They witnessed the sector returning from playing a part as the “shadow of banks” to its due roles, with narrowed risks and increased importance to the real economy. 2/6
Experts noted five changes with the Chinese asset management sector: less arbitrage, higher net worth, higher level of standardization, sound transformation, and more coordinated regulation. 3/6
At a recent CF40 seminar, experts agree that China's economy will rebound in 2023, but disputes remain over the strength of the rebound, which is caused by the different views on the scarring effect left by the pandemic and the recovery momentum of the real estate sector. 1/4
China's economy is in the early stage of bottoming out, providing a window period for the macro policy to play a pivotal role. Experts called for more vigorous fiscal policy, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint and focusing on subsidizing low-income households and SMEs. 2/4
Further easing monetary policy should be adopted to support economic recovery and release positive policy signals to the market. 3/4
The latest CF40 quarterly report led by Dr. Zhang Bin, CF40 Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, points out several major challenges facing the Chinese economy in the second half of the year:
1) pandemic-induced uncertainties; 2) weakening of consumption, real estate and export at the same time; 3) enlarging gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments; 4) possibilities of new risk events; and 5) further escalation of global geopolitical conflicts.
Against this backdrop, while it remains a priority to implement aggregate target and policy tools aimed at expanding total demand in order to achieve a decent annual growth, the report reminds that specific policy tools would also be necessary to address structural problems.
Global economic recovery faltered. In June, JPMorgan Global Composite PMI was 53.5, 2.2 pps up from May; JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.2, 0.1 pps down from May.
Total social financing (TSF) grew faster. June recorded a YoY growth in M1 of 5.8%, 1.2 pps high than in May; that of M2 was 11.4%, 0.3 pps higher than in May. TSF grew YoY by 10.8%, 0.3 pps higher than the increase in May.
The 7-day repo rate rose. The 7-day interbank pledged repo rate averaged at 1.87% in June, 13 bps higher than in May.
China’s economic performance rebounded. The official manufacturing PMI in June stood at 50.2, 0.6 percentage points (pps) up from May. 1/7
Manufacturing PMI of large businesses was 50.2, 0.8 pps lower than in May; that of medium-sized manufacturers was 51.3, 1.9 pps up from May; and that of small ones, 48.6, 1.9 pps up from May.2/7
Growth of industrial production rebounded. In June, the value added of industries above designated scale nationwide grew by 3.9% YoY, 3.2 pps faster than in May, and 0.8% MoM. 3/7
CF40 member ZHONG Wei points out that to realize a steady operation of China’s economy in 2022, we need to understand what it means to be “steady” from different frames of reference and policy perspectives.
Read more at: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KlRv7dtcpPaZ… 1/6
1. Maintain the long-term trend of growth since the reform and opening up. Despite the shift from high speed growth to high quality growth, it may be necessary to maintain a growth rate of no less than 4% or slow down the pace to make it manageable. 2/6
2. China’s central bank and most international organizations think that the reasonable potential growth rate of China’s economy is 5-6%, which might be considered as the growth benchmark for 2022 and the 14th five-year plan period.3/6