THREAD: I spent last week in #Bakhmut, reporting for @unherd. This video was shot in the centre of the city, 200m from the Russian🇷🇺 positions. Listen with sound UP.
I was fortunate to embed with Ukrainian🇺🇦 special forces, here are my thoughts (& photos) from the front here.
Bakhmut itself is a hellscape of destruction. The city is almost deserted save for the odd, usually older, civilian who refuses to leave. 🇷🇺 forces are pounding it relentlessly. They are clearly targeting everything regardless of whether it is civilian or not.
If you want to discover the madness of #Russia’s 🇷🇺invasion of #Ukraine🇺🇦 come to Bakhmut. The battle for the city is now the longest of the war but the city is only of limited strategic value. Once more, Ukrainians are paying in blood for the insane dreams of a modern-day Czar.
“The full contact front is just there,” says one of the #Ukraine🇺🇦 soldiers I am with. “The Russians are just 200 metres down that road. Tomorrow, I will come back and kill them.”
The #Russia🇷🇺 tactics are based on what the soldiers here describe as “meat waves” of soldiers, usually conscripts or prisoners fighting for Wagner who are promised a pardon if they survive more than 6 months. The #🇺🇦Ukrainians often wipe them out. But more always come.
The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here have been fighting for a long time and they are tired, but morale remains high. They remain convinced they will win.
The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here always keen to show their appreciation - mainly to 🇺🇸 & 🇬🇧 - for all the help they have received. Here, @posoh_Strannika makes his feelings known.
Drones are changing this war. A soldier tells me: “A while ago we used big, expensive tactical drones, made or the military but now, small and medium-sized civilian drones are becoming separate military units because they can cause great damage to the enemy.”
He continues: "We have learned how to attach small grenades and bombs to them. Now we can send up a small $3,000 Mavik 3 with a $30 grenade — and if you drop it perfectly on a T-90 you can take out a tank that costs millions.”
On the SF base I speak to the commander there. He continues, “if we were to lose Bakhmut, then speaking without emotion, it would not be a strategic defeat, we'd just lose a town. But in the meantime, we tie up a large force of Russians so they cannot proceed in other areas.”
“I think the battle will continue for about one or two months unless there is a major encirclement or something unexpected happens – it will go street by street; the artillery will slowly destroy all the tall buildings & it will descend to urban warfare. It will crawl to an end.”
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THREAD: Extraordinary. What has so long been talked about appears to be finally happening. Israel is attacking the Iranian nuclear sites.
I spent over a decade studying and analysing Iran's nuclear program. I will be posting my thoughts here as news comes in.
Most immediately, what has happened?
Israel has struck multiple targets inside Iran. These include the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, & former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.
Critically, Israel has also struck the Natanz uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Uranium enrichment is at the heart of any Iranian path to a nuclear bomb. Natanz is the nuclear programme's centerpiece: striking it is both a military & a symbolic move: it says unambiguously, we are trying to destroy your nuclear capabilities.
Right now, much remains unclear, especially if Israel has also struck the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, another underground uranium enrichment facility.
Right now, Iranian state TV is awash with reports of martyred generals and images of the destruction. It said it was struck several times, with pictures showing black smoke billowing from the site. See here Subashi Radar Site in western Iran.
What can be said, if this is, finally, the all-out attack on Iran;s nuclear program: it is a historic day in the Middle East.
Conventional wisdom held that Israel could not take out Iran's nuclear facilities. In 1981 the Israelis struck Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak. but it was a single, above ground facility relatively close to Israel.
The Iranians learned. Their program was spread among several facilities, scattered across a country far larger than Iraq (and more difficult for Israeli planes to reach) and, most importantly of all, buried deep underground.
Israel does have bunker-busting capabilities. It reportedly used a (which can go 35 metres deep) to assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. But whacking a podgy terrorist in a Beirut suburb is very different to destroying an Iranian nuclear site buried in a mountain.
For that many believed (incl myself) Washington's GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs that penetrate at least 60 metres underground before detonating. Pentagon officials had previously discussed using two bombs in succession to ensure any nuclear site would be destroyed, but even then, success is not assured.
It seems that the Israelis had indeed gone alone (likely to ensure any retaliation is directed against them alone). did the US give them the necessary tech or has Jerusalem - in typical style - just found a way?
As the revolutionaries enter regime buildings they discover hilarious photos of idiot tyrant Bashar al-Assad, which are then spread by laughing Syrians on WhatsApp. This one is a particular favourite it seems.
This one was discovered a few days ago...and has already achieved great fame on the Syrian internet.
Indeed, it is the photo that launched a thousand memes.
I’m in #Israel 🇮🇱 for @unherd as war with #Hamas intensifies. Follow me for updates from the ground. This am I attended a session where Israel is releasing “raw footage” of the 7th October massacres. Devices were banned from the initial session. Here is my report. THREAD
IDF Spokesman: “we want people to understand what we are fighting for. This is something else. Something has happened to #israel 🇮🇱. This is a crime vs humanity. This is good v bad. Death v life. These will will do anything. [commot any crime]. And it’s nothing to do with Islam.
IDF Spokesman: “why did they strap GoPros to themselves? Why do they call the family of who they murdered? Bc they are proud of what they did?
Rape - where is Islam?
Burn - where is Islam?
Behead - where is Islam?
[tbc he’s saying none of the above has anything to do w. Islam)
THREAD: I've returned from the frontlines of #Ukraine. There, I followed a soldier delivering supplies to his comrades, which meant running through the front as shells fell all around us.
Please watch & read to understand life for 🇺🇦soldiers. I did it once. They do it every day.
We set out in the battalion 4x4 and headed toward the front. As we approached, it began to become clear just what exactly we were driving toward.
We enter the so-called “Forest of Surprises” and see the utter destruction #Russia 🇷🇺 has wrought. They’ve burned so much of the forest. “Look what they’ve done to my country.” Says Dime. “If they cannot take 🇺🇦, they will destroy everything in it.”
Nine years on, it’s evolved into the biggest land struggle in Europe since World War II. I think of all the friends I have made, and the ones that I have lost. #Ukraine🇺🇦
At midnight we make do with a brief toast in the office. As the phone’s glowing numbers hit 12:00 glasses of tea are raised - Slava Ukrainii…Heroyam Slava! We roar. And then as an addendum: “Fuck #Russia!”
“Yeah, and fuck Putin too,” says Oleg.
I start to think about the 9 years I’ve spent covering #Ukraine 🇺🇦. I was here when the war began back in 2014. I remember when the thugs with baseball bats and pavement slabs morphed into professional soldiers with machine guns.
THREAD: I was fortunate enough to spend new year in a trench on the frontlines of southern #Ukraine just kilometres from the #Russia positions. I must be careful about locations etc. What follows are my observations on the war here. Read the full story this Saturday in @unherd.
The position here is under pretty much daily attack: from rockets, artillery and drones including since August, Iranian Shahids. Drones have now become a key component of the war in #Ukraine🇺🇦. The soldiers here have various means to repel them, including heavy machine guns.
I stand on the very edge of the position and talk to a young soldier, Artem, who is manning a DShK heavy machine gun. He greets me and points straight ahead. I follow the line of his finger out into the distance.