Thread by @TracyBethHoeg

New Nordic study🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇳🇴
Follow up through late winter/early spring 2022
4.8x more cases of post vax myo than post covid myo
>10x more in 12-24 year olds
2x as many post vax heart failure dx than post covid
But the authors' conclusions may surprise you 🧵
bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/2/1/e0…

The authors conclude that PER MYOCARDITIS CASE, the risk of heart failure was lower post vax than post Covid or post conventional myo... true!
But they aren't using infections or # vaxed as denominators
By late winter 2022, at least as many people were infected as vaccinated

So the OVERALL risk of getting myocarditis or HF from *vaccination* (all doses combined) appears higher than post covid, but per myo case, the vaccine myo appears be milder
YET "six patients with myocarditis after vaccination died within 90 days of admission to hospital"

And, it's important to note, the Nordic countries stopped giving the higher risk Moderna to males in October 2021.

Risk of readmission to the hospital post myo diagnosis was not significantly different between post vaccination and post covid myocarditis
But total # of readmissions was 6.9x higher post vax

This study is complex & involved a lot of work so I am very grateful to the authors.
But I'm not getting the same degree of reassurance from their findings because overall there were a greater # of people who developed post vax myo and post vax heart failure than post covid

But I'm curious to hear cardiologists and potentially study authors weigh in with input.
This study has shed important light on a poorly understood topic.
Please let me know if I have misinterpreted anything.

Adding info: This is an important comment from cardiologist @anish_koka. Would really appreciate @a_husby & @anders_hviid 's thoughts on this

https://twitter.com/anish_koka/status/1621850476365991936

& see @ZackStieber 's excellent coverage of this study & more background + quotes from @anish_koka , @a_husby + me.
Dr. Husby draws different conclusions than I do but this is how science works & this is just a respectful debate about what we can learn
theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/health…

Addition from @dobssi
If we subtract 90 days from each study's end date to allow for follow-up time, this is the
Fully vax/est infected ratio
DK w4 2022 78%/46%
FI w49 2021 73%/16%
NO w4 2022 75%/31%
SE w43 2021 67%/23%
(will be lower vax % for younger)
healthdata.org/covid/data-dow…

This last part from @dobssi is key👆
If we allow for 90 days of follow-up & using that seroprev. rather than end of the study seroprev, the vax denom is ~ 2.4x higher than the infected.
This still makes overall post vax myo cases 2x higher than post covid & 4x higher in 12-24.