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ChrisO_wiki

Feb 4 • 29 tweets • 6 min read

1/ Wagner fighters released from the war in Ukraine are reportedly to be secretly be put under surveillance. Meanwhile, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's influence seems to have waned, prompting publicity stunts to boost his profile, like the feud with Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. ⬇️

2/ According to the Russian VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, a source says that the Russian First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs has issued a secret order to police regarding the Wagner convict fighters who have completed their contracts and returned to civilian life.

3/ Although the convicts have been pardoned, VChK-OGPU reports: "Personnel 'on the ground' in all regions are being actively made aware of instructions to secretly control them and prohibit any action that may provoke conflict." They are to be "kind" to the returnees.

4/ "In short, honour and respect. Officers are forbidden to take ex-convicts to police stations, to take their fingerprints and photograph them.

5/ "The only exceptions are in one hundred percent [provable] cases: when there is no doubt that the ex-fighters have committed a crime, when there is a citizen's report specifically about the ex-cons, or when there is a firm prospect of a criminal charge being drawn up.

6/ "As for monitoring, the management insisted that it should be secret and that former prisoners should not even be aware of it. Operationally relevant information is recommended to be obtained from agents, neighbours and teachers (if those under control have children).

7/ "Actual checks should only be conducted under the pretext of door-to-door visits and with offers of assistance with paperwork, employment, etc."

8/ The rest of Wagner and Yevgeny Prigozhin are also in an unfavourable position, with the Russian Ministry of Defence reasserting its primacy through its control of supplies to Wagner. (This may account for Wagner apparently trying to get supplies from North Korea.)

9/ A source tells VChK-OGPU that "the flow of people to private military companies has dried up, and PMCs depend on the military to supply them. Prigozhin and Wagner were simply used [to capture] Soledar.

10/ "They drove him like a donkey goes after a carrot: just get it, and everything will be different straight away. But in the end, [they say] "thank you, guys, now stand in line and hold still". And Prigozhin has no arguments to answer this, except informational ones".

11/ "Now the Defence Ministry is trying to make the Wagner PMC [just one] of many units, to erase it in the grey masses.

12/ "Until recently, it seemed that there is Wagner, and somewhere behind it there is the Ministry of Defence, other volunteers, the Rosgvardiya, etc. And now it is the Ministry of Defence [in the forefront], which has a lot of people on its payroll, including Wagner.

13/ "In this second variant the scale of Prigozhin's figure is not seen at all, don't you think? And what does Prigozhin do, except to remind himself of himself with all sorts of newsworthy occasions?"

14/ Prigozhin has created one such "newsworthy occasion" with his public feud with former FSB officer turned warblogger Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. It's attracted widespread attention, but reportedly backfired on Prigozhin, who is said to have wanted to show he was 'the daddy'.

15/ According to a VChK-OGPU source, Prigozhin had hoped to lure Girkin into joining Wagner and thereby show the public who was boss.

"Girkin would be put in a bag over his head, brought in and [made to] record a video of him identifying himself as a Wagner volunteer.

16/ "The Wagner security service has prepared dossiers on a number of people, including journalists and military experts, who have been documented criticising it.

17/ "Prigozhin wants a video to be recorded with them, in which they say they became volunteers of the PMC and sign the appropriate papers. By the way, if they are brought to the security service, the statement of voluntary membership in the video and signature is a solved issue.

18/ "They will not even beat them, they know how to psychologically apply pressure. Prigozhin needs to show now that he has influence left and he wants to get off on someone very much. He is now deciding to have such moves approved.

19/ So if Girkin recorded a video with a sad face saying that he agrees to become a volunteer member of the PMC (on camera Prigozhin even shakes his hand) – it means Prigozhin was able to negotiate at the top."

20/ However, it reportedly hasn't quite worked out like that. The source says:

"After Prigozhin was strongly and almost publicly 'grounded', he needed to somehow establish himself in front of the public.

21/ "Strelkov is not liked either by the authorities or by the military, there is no one to really stand up for him, but it is possible to show him conventionally who is the daddy here.

22/ "One can no longer point the finger at [General Valery] Gerasimov (the [Wagner] fighters have already been informed – one can expect no amateurism, I assure you), …

23/ "…one can no longer point the finger at the generals in the Duma, and to remain silent right now is even more impossible. It would have looked as if he had been gagged.

24/ "A public show of force was planned. But in fact verbal diarrhea happened, things did not go according to plan. They wanted to drag Strelkov into Wagner, and then show everyone what it means to fight with Wagner, even in words.

25/ "And in the end Strelkov's friend Polynkov publicly insulted Prigozhin...

As a result the Strelkov story turned out to be a big minus for Prigozhin. Strelkov is left with what he had.

26/ "But whereas before there was confidence that such disputes with Wagner and Prigozhin personally were 'game over' for either a general or a minister, now Prigozhin himself is destroying the 'legend of the terrible and fearsome Wagner' that he has so diligently built up." /end