Thread by @althecat

Abiy Ahmed Ali's Dilemma (a revised opinion on the EOTC crisis in Ethiopia)

1/26. Politics is the art of the possible.

THREAD about the situation Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed Ali has found (or put) himself in conflict with the ETOC (Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church).

2. With a call from the EOTC for a nationwide protest on the 12th, and three days of wearing black and praying starting tomorrow in Addis this situation's seriousness should not be underestimated.

3. There are reports people wearing black are already being harassed by police in Addis, from tomorrow the numbers of people wearing black will likely skyrocket.

4. If you think this looks like a brewing colour revolution that is because that is what it looks like.

5. Ethiopia's PM, fresh from a military victory over the TPLF, and what appears to be a successful peace process, now finds himself facing a challenge which could end his premiership.

6. Effectively he has found himself in a forked position (in chess terms). He is being forced to chose between his Oromo allies and power base, and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church. Not just in Ethiopia. Everywhere.

7. How he found himself in this position is not completely clear. But the history of a change in Islamic leadership last year is one of the reasons people suspect him of active involvement in these latest events involving the EOTC.

8. The trigger events (outlined in this quoted thread posted yesterday of three stories - Feb 4th , 26th and 25th of Jan.) provides the immediate background.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1621962044839706625?s=20&t=X7oVlrRVV6lNkSQE0hGfJw

9. But it seems probable the excommunications in the EOTC followed a period of internal discussion, so this has likely been brewing since at least late 2022.

10. Abiy recently made a very ill-advised statement in relation to the situation in which he appeared to at least condone the actions of the Oromo EOTC splinter group - whose actions led to the excommunications.

11. I have spoken to several well informed observers local and international - all Ethiopians - and they are mostly of a view that PM Abiy did all this deliberately.

12. I myself am more willing to give Abiy the benefit of the doubt. Noting he has a history of making - ocasionally - spectacular political mistakes, sometimes verbal, sometimes through decisions. [N.B: Democracy is a messy business and this is not that unusual in politics.]

13. The most notable incident of this was a speech last year to Parliament in which he said trees could be planted on the graves of dead civilians in Wellega. Remarks which caused widespread outrage.

14. The decision to set TPLF Godfather Sebhat Nega free at the end of 2021 was similarly very badly received.

15. But be all this as it may, the current situation he finds himself in is one that cannot easily be undone.

16. Abiy has been stating correctly that this is a matter for the Church to sort out.

17. But the removal of security from Churches, including the office of Abune Matias now looks like intimidation.

18. So what can he do?

Were I providing political advice, this is what I would say:

Make a choice. Between prioritising the political base in Oromia, and making peace with the Church. And the choice should be the Church. (1/3)

20.

2/ Why the Church? Because if he does not chose the Church he risks a nationwide expanding crisis and protests similar to those that brought Morsi to Power in Tahir Square. (2/3)

21.

3/ Go to speak to the Papa of the EOTC Abune Matias ASAP (his offfice is nearby), restore security to churches immediately & negotiate an agreed statement. (3/3)

22.

4/ Ideally this should then be issued with the Church - to end this crisis. (4/3)

23. NOTE 1: Followers will note that I have changed my views on this. This is because I have consulted a range of different people in preparing this thread - and checked it with a few more.

24. NOTE 2: (1/2). : FWIW I think this is more likely to have been a political mistake by Abiy (slip of the tongue - walking into a trap) than an actual plot to try to take control over the EOTC..

25. NOTE 2: (2/2) ... as many people think. This is because it is very hard to see - notwithstanding what happened with Islamic faith Leadership - why Abiy would have created a trap for himself.

26.

God Bless Ethiopia & Bring it a Durable and Prosperous Peace.

/ENDS

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