Bonds always finance government spending, which is beyond what the balance is in the "Treasury Account" at the Central Bank. Governments DO NOT create reserves, and Governments DO NOT create deposits. #Page1#MMT
Let’s start with the assumption that the Gov wants to spend $60 billion, but the treasury account only has a $50 billion balance in it. I will also assume by law the treasury account cannot go negative to adhere to some self-imposed law. #Page2
To address this issue the Treasury will “create bonds” to cover the shortfall in the treasury account. Gov only creates IOUs. The first issue is there is not enough reserves in the banking sector to buy the bonds. #Page3
From the Central Banks' perspective, only they can mark up and down reserve and treasury accounts held at the CB. This is the set of initial conditions I created for this illustration. #Page4
Banks must maintain a reasonable amounts of reserves in the system to continue settling within the inter-bank market and purchase new treasury bonds, the CB comes in and buys existing bonds held by banks in exchange for reserves. #Page5
As you can see the CB has created reserves now sitting in reserve accounts in the Banking sector, in exchange for bonds already held by banks. This is and asset swap for banks. #Page6
From the Treasuries perspective, a liability swap happens, bonds switch hands between banks and the CB. There are changes in interest flow dynamics, but I will not cover that here as it is outside of the scope of this illustration. #Page7
Now that the banking sector has the reserves to purchase new treasury bonds, the treasury now “creates” and auctions bonds of to the banking sector. This increases the “Treasury Account” and increases total bonds. #Page8
The Central Bank facilitates this transaction as a liability swap between the Reserve accounts held by banks and the treasury account. #Page9
The banking sector now gets to hold assets in the form of bonds that earn higher rates of interest than reserves. There was even a time that the Central Banks in most countries did not pay interest on reserves held by banks. #Page10
The Government can now spend, and the Central Bank facilitates this via a liability swap between the treasury account and appropriate reserve accounts held by banks. #Page11
Now the banking sector “creates” deposits in the private sector by marking up the correct deposit accounts where the government spending was directed. This liability is balanced by the increase in reserves. #Page12
Governments creates bonds, Central Banks create reserves, and Banks create deposits. The CB completes operations separate from treasury functions, and they should never be aggregated together. This all still confirms STABs
Mainstream macro blames crises on public debt or bad policy.
History tells a different story, The biggest crashes follow private debt booms , when households & firms load up on credit faster than incomes grow.
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1929, Japan’s 1990s bust, the 2008 GFC, all preceded by surging private debt-to-GDP.
In each case, public debt rose after the crisis, as governments absorbed the fallout.
Cause and effect are backwards in the textbook story.
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Private debt booms are dangerous because they fuel asset bubbles and fragile balance sheets.
When cashflows falter or rates rise, defaults spike and leverage turns into a chain reaction.
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In the 1960s, MIT's Jay Forrester created a simulation that changed how we think about supply chains: the Beer Game.
It revealed that even stable demand can cause wild production swings—now known as the bullwhip effect.
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The game has 4 roles: Retailer, Wholesaler, Distributor & Factory.
Each tries to meet demand & manage inventory—but only sees demand after it’s placed. That delay leads each player to guess, and missteps quickly multiply.
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If the retailer slightly overorders, the wholesaler overreacts, the distributor does the same, and the factory ramps up too much. That overcorrection leads to big swings—causing stockouts or bloated inventories.
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