Ty Keynes Profile picture
Feb 5, 2023 13 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Bonds always finance government spending, which is beyond what the balance is in the "Treasury Account" at the Central Bank. Governments DO NOT create reserves, and Governments DO NOT create deposits. #Page1 #MMT
Let’s start with the assumption that the Gov wants to spend $60 billion, but the treasury account only has a $50 billion balance in it. I will also assume by law the treasury account cannot go negative to adhere to some self-imposed law. #Page2
To address this issue the Treasury will “create bonds” to cover the shortfall in the treasury account. Gov only creates IOUs. The first issue is there is not enough reserves in the banking sector to buy the bonds. #Page3
From the Central Banks' perspective, only they can mark up and down reserve and treasury accounts held at the CB. This is the set of initial conditions I created for this illustration. #Page4
Banks must maintain a reasonable amounts of reserves in the system to continue settling within the inter-bank market and purchase new treasury bonds, the CB comes in and buys existing bonds held by banks in exchange for reserves. #Page5
As you can see the CB has created reserves now sitting in reserve accounts in the Banking sector, in exchange for bonds already held by banks. This is and asset swap for banks. #Page6
From the Treasuries perspective, a liability swap happens, bonds switch hands between banks and the CB. There are changes in interest flow dynamics, but I will not cover that here as it is outside of the scope of this illustration. #Page7
Now that the banking sector has the reserves to purchase new treasury bonds, the treasury now “creates” and auctions bonds of to the banking sector. This increases the “Treasury Account” and increases total bonds. #Page8
The Central Bank facilitates this transaction as a liability swap between the Reserve accounts held by banks and the treasury account. #Page9
The banking sector now gets to hold assets in the form of bonds that earn higher rates of interest than reserves. There was even a time that the Central Banks in most countries did not pay interest on reserves held by banks. #Page10
The Government can now spend, and the Central Bank facilitates this via a liability swap between the treasury account and appropriate reserve accounts held by banks. #Page11
Now the banking sector “creates” deposits in the private sector by marking up the correct deposit accounts where the government spending was directed. This liability is balanced by the increase in reserves. #Page12
Governments creates bonds, Central Banks create reserves, and Banks create deposits. The CB completes operations separate from treasury functions, and they should never be aggregated together. This all still confirms STABs

The End... #Page13

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More from @TyKeynes

Sep 10, 2023
Macroeconomic Price Level Theories.

I've been trying to develop a coherent set of equations for the price level in my #systemdynamics model.

My conclusion on the matter: Its important to understand that these theories are not mutually exclusive. 🧵Thread 1/8 Current price level equations for the draft Economics Biophysical Dynamic Model.
Quantity Theory of Money (QTM):

QTM suggests that the price level is directly linked to the money supply. More money = higher prices (assuming other factors remain constant). It's a fundamental idea in monetary economics.🧵Thread 2/8 Nicolaus Copernicus
Monetarism:

Monetarists, like Milton Friedman, stress the importance of controlling the money supply growth rate to maintain stable prices. They argue that excessive money growth leads to inflation.🧵Thread 3/8 Milton Friedman
Read 8 tweets
Sep 7, 2023
I'm about 80% done my National Economic #systemdynamics model, Still have some subsystems that need to be added.

Should have a beta version for download (Using Minsky software) sometime in the next week on my Patreon page. 🧵Thread 1/16
It's stock flow consistent with a foreign sector. There is over 300 variables and parameters at this point. and about 90 feedback loops. I have 17 units of measure including time. 🧵2/16
I found it important to include both domestic and foreign bond holders, as this very much impacts currency values. 🧵3/16 Image
Read 16 tweets
May 8, 2023
Can we spend our way to a greener future? The World models demonstrate we can't. GDP and CO2 (and other pollutants) fit pretty tightly. We might just spend our way into a climate disaster. Let's be clear were sacrificing our existence for a material standard of living.🧵1/4 Image
In the world model, if I increase capital investment in the aggregate by 25% in 2025, I am able to maintain the material standard of living at the cost of the biosphere. Notice the food ratio does not increase with the additional capital investments. 🧵2/4 Image
Now if I reduce capital investment in aggregate in 2025 by 25%, sure we lose our all-important coping mechanism in the material standard of living, but notice our food ratio holds steady. 🧵3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
May 8, 2023
A little message for "some of you economists out there". Let’s say you borrow $100,000 to build a home and the homebuilder banks at your bank. The bank ends up with a $100,000 asset and a $100,000 liability (the loan and the deposit – loans create deposits). 🧵 Thread 1/14
The homebuilder will end up with $100,000 in retained earnings and you will end up with $100,000 in debt. If you net out the investment then the private sector has no change in financial assets and you might presume the private sector is no better off than it was before. 🧵 2/14
Remember, your $100,000 investment resulted in $100,000 in saving for the home builder. But are we actually no better off than we were before?  Of course not. You have a new home. 🧵Thread 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Jan 4, 2023
Loanable Fund vs Endogenous Money.

A short film stylized in an old fashion silent movie-type format and utilizing the #Minsky #systemdynamics software.

Download Minsky for free: sourceforge.net/projects/minsk… (1/16)
Let's start with what you learn in the textbooks and hear on the news. It's the loanable fund's fallacy. (2/16)
The aggregate banking sector is broken into 4 accounts.

1. Reserves (Assets)
2. Customer1 Deposits (Liability)
3. Customer2 Deposits (Liability)
4 Bank Equity (Equity)

Note the initial conditions under each account. (3/16)
Read 16 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
I have been reading some comments from the #MMT community about @AnnPettifor latest blog in relation to taxes that don't fund government spending but bonds do. I think I can reconcile both Ann's position and MMTs. It is true taxes are collected after gov spending (1/6)
Even coming from a non MMT position, it is obvious the tax collection and spending never match, as spending bills are announced and some plan of tax rates are proposed to balance the gov spending after the fact. (2/6)
Where I believe Ann is right, and before I go in more detail the terminology and process differs from country to country. Bonds are auctioned off a week in advance to cover any sort falls in the gov account at the CB. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets

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