Hi brothers and sisters,
Happy LORD's day~
We heard some terrible news from the 🥐.
Please pray for him and his family.
Though I was not going to post THREADS for a bit,
figured I'd "do what I love" as 🥐said and supplement his teachings in his absence. Least I can do.
See 👇:
Happy LORD's day~
We heard some terrible news from the 🥐.
Please pray for him and his family.
Though I was not going to post THREADS for a bit,
figured I'd "do what I love" as 🥐said and supplement his teachings in his absence. Least I can do.
See 👇:
1/
If you were to ask me where I would fundamentally stand when we had very poor mega tech earnings, MUCH hotter than expected NFP, ⬆️ USD, and other macro risks at hand - I would say MUCH lower than where we are.
When risks are this high but price is here tho:
Respect it!
If you were to ask me where I would fundamentally stand when we had very poor mega tech earnings, MUCH hotter than expected NFP, ⬆️ USD, and other macro risks at hand - I would say MUCH lower than where we are.
When risks are this high but price is here tho:
Respect it!
2/
🐻had their chance in their 🪟and failed to capitalize EVEN with the above! What does that tell you about this rally?
As @lord_fed mentioned, this is THE MOST HATED RALLY.
While you may hear a bunch of 🐍oil about how this is "retail driven," data shows otherwise.
🐻had their chance in their 🪟and failed to capitalize EVEN with the above! What does that tell you about this rally?
As @lord_fed mentioned, this is THE MOST HATED RALLY.
While you may hear a bunch of 🐍oil about how this is "retail driven," data shows otherwise.
3/
The truth of the matter is, that INSTITUTIONS (yes... the BIG BOYS), were behind this recent price action.
If you think this was all retail (just like how some still think GME was from retail only), you need to look at factual data - not charts from your perma 🐻furus.
The truth of the matter is, that INSTITUTIONS (yes... the BIG BOYS), were behind this recent price action.
If you think this was all retail (just like how some still think GME was from retail only), you need to look at factual data - not charts from your perma 🐻furus.
4/
They were COVERING THEIR SHORTS.
According to institutional notes: while it is true that some LO's (long only) were starting to put money to work,
the PA is from institutions merely covering their HEAVILY OFFSIDES positions.
Read this ENTIRE THREAD:
They were COVERING THEIR SHORTS.
According to institutional notes: while it is true that some LO's (long only) were starting to put money to work,
the PA is from institutions merely covering their HEAVILY OFFSIDES positions.
Read this ENTIRE THREAD:
https://twitter.com/lord_fed/status/1621704709374611457?s=20&t=OI9m_UXuTB-KkF-xgqEm6w
5/
Now think with me. Put your thinking caps on and don't let your 🐻narrative get in the way of thinking objectively about this.
If the big boys were on the WRONG SIDE this ENTIRE TIME, what would happen if they actually started BUYING (and not just short covering)?
👀
Now think with me. Put your thinking caps on and don't let your 🐻narrative get in the way of thinking objectively about this.
If the big boys were on the WRONG SIDE this ENTIRE TIME, what would happen if they actually started BUYING (and not just short covering)?
👀
6/
Now, I've said before that one can argue all they want with me about fundamentals and whatever else.
But PRICE IS TRUTH.
If you are on the wrong side of this market...
It’s not the market that’s wrong. It’s you!
Now, I've said before that one can argue all they want with me about fundamentals and whatever else.
But PRICE IS TRUTH.
If you are on the wrong side of this market...
It’s not the market that’s wrong. It’s you!
7/
"But still! The macro risks are tremendous!"
" #bigflip !"
"Why would institutions want to buy when inflation is going to return?"
"Goldilocks is highly improbable!"
"Fed will go HIGHER FOR LONGER!"
No arguments against those.
They're all sound if you dig into the theses.
"But still! The macro risks are tremendous!"
" #bigflip !"
"Why would institutions want to buy when inflation is going to return?"
"Goldilocks is highly improbable!"
"Fed will go HIGHER FOR LONGER!"
No arguments against those.
They're all sound if you dig into the theses.
8/
However, when playing markets, there are a few cardinal rules to live by:
a. Price is truth.
b. Ride the trend.
c. Do not try to time tops/bottoms.
Every single, freakin (whew I'm getting heated again) perma 🐻sub selling furu has been trying to call for a crash since Nov..
However, when playing markets, there are a few cardinal rules to live by:
a. Price is truth.
b. Ride the trend.
c. Do not try to time tops/bottoms.
Every single, freakin (whew I'm getting heated again) perma 🐻sub selling furu has been trying to call for a crash since Nov..
9/
And what has happened instead? Faces ripped off.
Retail followers of the aforementioned furus getting savings destroyed.
While yes, responsibility largely falls on the individual participants, responsibility is also on the furus for leading their sheep to the slaughter.
And what has happened instead? Faces ripped off.
Retail followers of the aforementioned furus getting savings destroyed.
While yes, responsibility largely falls on the individual participants, responsibility is also on the furus for leading their sheep to the slaughter.
10/
"You're just a perma bull bias!"
No. I'm biased to the CURRENT TREND, which is CLEARLY ⬆️.
So again, unless you are nimble, stop averaging down on puts.
If you are/were in Zee Puts, you can NOT gloat rn.
You're OFFSIDE!
Went off on a huge tangent, but ⬆️ is ALL IMPORTANT!
"You're just a perma bull bias!"
No. I'm biased to the CURRENT TREND, which is CLEARLY ⬆️.
So again, unless you are nimble, stop averaging down on puts.
If you are/were in Zee Puts, you can NOT gloat rn.
You're OFFSIDE!
Went off on a huge tangent, but ⬆️ is ALL IMPORTANT!
11/
Back to topic at ✋:
while Friday's market action and other macro correlations (e.g., USD) are flashing minor bearish signals, the trend is up until proven otherwise.
Technical break of the 20d sma closed in this week of VERY POSITIVE flows again, would be your sign.
Back to topic at ✋:
while Friday's market action and other macro correlations (e.g., USD) are flashing minor bearish signals, the trend is up until proven otherwise.
Technical break of the 20d sma closed in this week of VERY POSITIVE flows again, would be your sign.
12/
As it stands, 20d sma is currently sitting at around 4035-4040 level.
I see that as a worst case scenario barring any surprise news, which how ironic: we have CB speakers lined up this whole week! Eye other data coming out too!
As it stands, 20d sma is currently sitting at around 4035-4040 level.
I see that as a worst case scenario barring any surprise news, which how ironic: we have CB speakers lined up this whole week! Eye other data coming out too!
13/
Given positive flows, vol compression is the name of the game until next Wednesday, 02/15.
Expect a game of 🐔around that 1 std > 20d (~ES 4100). And even in spite of the macro risks highlighted before, I'd expect a sideways to UP grind with thrust on Fri into next Mon.
Given positive flows, vol compression is the name of the game until next Wednesday, 02/15.
Expect a game of 🐔around that 1 std > 20d (~ES 4100). And even in spite of the macro risks highlighted before, I'd expect a sideways to UP grind with thrust on Fri into next Mon.
14/
Come next week, CPI on 02/14 will be the real wildcard.
Hotter than expected data will likely force fed's hand to actually going "Higher for longer."
Participants will not like that.
Given skew as well, that is why 🥐said it may be interesting shot to play⬇️side come 02/15.
Come next week, CPI on 02/14 will be the real wildcard.
Hotter than expected data will likely force fed's hand to actually going "Higher for longer."
Participants will not like that.
Given skew as well, that is why 🥐said it may be interesting shot to play⬇️side come 02/15.
15/
We'll talk more in depth when we get there.
For now, take it one week at a time.
Don't try to play hero ball here.
It is very UNLIKELY we see any explosive downside action until next week given the massive vol compression.
Don't overthink it. Ride the 🌊
Love y'all.
GL!
We'll talk more in depth when we get there.
For now, take it one week at a time.
Don't try to play hero ball here.
It is very UNLIKELY we see any explosive downside action until next week given the massive vol compression.
Don't overthink it. Ride the 🌊
Love y'all.
GL!
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