North of Kupyansk, in the Hryanykivka and Dvorichne area, Russian troops have pushed Ukraine back to their main line of defense along the railway. Their attempts to penetrate this defensive line have failed.
Russia has declared this some sort of victory, claiming they control the eastern part of Dvorichne. In reality, the east part was a gray area, and the Russian assault stopped when it met real resistance.
In the Kreminna area, Russian forces are continuing their push west, although they have not moved as far as they wanted to for several reasons. First, minor Ukrainian counterattacks have slowed the Russian forces. Second, there has been bad weather, limiting the use of drones.
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka. They claim to have captured this town, but no evidence supports this claim. Ukrainian troops have posted pictures from this town to show their presence.
I have not read news from Verkhnokamyanske, so I assume nothing has changed here, but it is possible more is going on in the town. Spirne is in more or less the same situation. Both of these towns have Russian attacks with unknown consequences.
After capturing Mykolaivka, Russia has had limited success attacking Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka. Instead, Russia is heavily shelling both towns.
Russian forces have had limited success in the Krana Hora area, just north of Bakhmut. They captured a factory in the southern part of Krasna Hora, and they heavily contest the eastern part. However, the primary defensive positions on the western side of the town are holding well
More importantly, a railway runs through Paraskoviivka from north to south; this railway goes all the way through Bakhmut. Ukraine’s primary defensive line is along this railway.
In the northern part of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces slowly retreat to the railway.
In the east of Bakhmut, Ukraine is slowly withdrawing across the river. Russia is attacking along Gorky and Nekrasov street and along Vatutina Lane. They are also attacking north from the garbage dump area, where they have taken substantial casualties.
South of Bakhmut, near Opytne, Russia is attacking along Nezalezhnosti street. They are making progress here.
Near Ivanivske, Russian forces are fighting in the forests along the canal. Russians are worried about an impending counterattack and the vulnerability of their flank along this canal, which they have had limited success crossing.
However, as they press north to attack Ivanivske, this flank becomes increasingly vulnerable. For the past few weeks, I have expected a Ukrainian counterattack in this area to push Russia away from Chasiv Yar. However, this hasn’t happened yet. Although perhaps soon.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia attacked Vesele in the north, Kamyanka, and near the highway to the south. However, none of these attacks succeeded, and the attack in the south came with considerable casualties.
Russian forces are actively trying to push north from the Vodyane and Opytne area toward Sjeverne. They have made some progress.
Russian forces are also attacking Pervomaiske and Nevske without notable success.
In the Marinka area, Russian forces are attacking Krasnohorivka, although I believe these are just probing attacks.
There is active fighting in the south of Marinka, where Russian troops have crossed Druzhby Avenue to capture a small industrial area. They are also pushing toward Pobjeda and in the general direction of Novomykhailivka.
In the Vuhledar area, Russia is continuing its assault. They reportedly lost over 30 heavy vehicles today in various assaults.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, minor fighting is near Dorozhnyanka, south of Hulyaipole, and Nesterianka, south of Orikhiv.
Finally, Ukraine reportedly destroyed several Russian boats that attempted to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson region.
I made this image for the Kreminna area and it took me like 10 minutes to make and then I posted the wrong image. :(
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The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.
Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.
To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.
Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.
"According to the investigation, on October 5, 2024, at around 3:30 p.m., using methods of warfare prohibited by international law, the enemy drone attacked a bus traveling through the territory of the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district.
As a result of the attack of the occupiers, three passengers were injured - a 65-year-old man and 54-year-old and 63-year-old women."
I am not convinced Russians actually control the area west of the canal in Chasiv Yar. We’ve been geolocating Russians there for a while, if you scroll back through our map you can see the geolocations and you can see the videos. You can see what the area looks like.
That area is not conducive to being controlled by anyone, Ukraine has thick drone coverage, and anyone who passes through the area has a very high chance of dying. Furthermore, the structures are completely destroyed and there arent many suitable places for defense.
I doubt anyone controls this area. I doubt anyone could control the area no matter how much they wanted to or how many resources they put into it.
Russia is currently bombing Kurakhove into nothingness. They are systematically bombing the entire place into dust. Dropping every weapon they have on it. Glide bombs, tactical cruise missiles, artillery, rockets. They are trying to turn it to dust, to completely erase it.
Kurakhove is the anchor to the Ukrainian defensive strategy, it links their eastern line to their southern line. You can think of two concentric circles. There is the outer circle, that is Kurakhove. And the inner circle, that is Kurakhivka. Together they form this anchor.
Between the two is a giant reservoir. Russia is attacking Kurakhivka from the north. They are moving closer and closer to it. And now they are turning Kurakhove to dust.