North of Kupyansk, in the Hryanykivka and Dvorichne area, Russian troops have pushed Ukraine back to their main line of defense along the railway. Their attempts to penetrate this defensive line have failed.
Russia has declared this some sort of victory, claiming they control the eastern part of Dvorichne. In reality, the east part was a gray area, and the Russian assault stopped when it met real resistance.
In the Kreminna area, Russian forces are continuing their push west, although they have not moved as far as they wanted to for several reasons. First, minor Ukrainian counterattacks have slowed the Russian forces. Second, there has been bad weather, limiting the use of drones.
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka. They claim to have captured this town, but no evidence supports this claim. Ukrainian troops have posted pictures from this town to show their presence.
I have not read news from Verkhnokamyanske, so I assume nothing has changed here, but it is possible more is going on in the town. Spirne is in more or less the same situation. Both of these towns have Russian attacks with unknown consequences.
After capturing Mykolaivka, Russia has had limited success attacking Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka. Instead, Russia is heavily shelling both towns.
Russian forces have had limited success in the Krana Hora area, just north of Bakhmut. They captured a factory in the southern part of Krasna Hora, and they heavily contest the eastern part. However, the primary defensive positions on the western side of the town are holding well
More importantly, a railway runs through Paraskoviivka from north to south; this railway goes all the way through Bakhmut. Ukraine’s primary defensive line is along this railway.
In the northern part of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces slowly retreat to the railway.
In the east of Bakhmut, Ukraine is slowly withdrawing across the river. Russia is attacking along Gorky and Nekrasov street and along Vatutina Lane. They are also attacking north from the garbage dump area, where they have taken substantial casualties.
South of Bakhmut, near Opytne, Russia is attacking along Nezalezhnosti street. They are making progress here.
Near Ivanivske, Russian forces are fighting in the forests along the canal. Russians are worried about an impending counterattack and the vulnerability of their flank along this canal, which they have had limited success crossing.
However, as they press north to attack Ivanivske, this flank becomes increasingly vulnerable. For the past few weeks, I have expected a Ukrainian counterattack in this area to push Russia away from Chasiv Yar. However, this hasn’t happened yet. Although perhaps soon.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia attacked Vesele in the north, Kamyanka, and near the highway to the south. However, none of these attacks succeeded, and the attack in the south came with considerable casualties.
Russian forces are actively trying to push north from the Vodyane and Opytne area toward Sjeverne. They have made some progress.
Russian forces are also attacking Pervomaiske and Nevske without notable success.
In the Marinka area, Russian forces are attacking Krasnohorivka, although I believe these are just probing attacks.
There is active fighting in the south of Marinka, where Russian troops have crossed Druzhby Avenue to capture a small industrial area. They are also pushing toward Pobjeda and in the general direction of Novomykhailivka.
In the Vuhledar area, Russia is continuing its assault. They reportedly lost over 30 heavy vehicles today in various assaults.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, minor fighting is near Dorozhnyanka, south of Hulyaipole, and Nesterianka, south of Orikhiv.
Finally, Ukraine reportedly destroyed several Russian boats that attempted to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson region.
I made this image for the Kreminna area and it took me like 10 minutes to make and then I posted the wrong image. :(
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I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.
The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.
Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.
A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.
One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.
With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.
Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.
Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.
Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.