North of Kupyansk, in the Hryanykivka and Dvorichne area, Russian troops have pushed Ukraine back to their main line of defense along the railway. Their attempts to penetrate this defensive line have failed.
Russia has declared this some sort of victory, claiming they control the eastern part of Dvorichne. In reality, the east part was a gray area, and the Russian assault stopped when it met real resistance.
In the Kreminna area, Russian forces are continuing their push west, although they have not moved as far as they wanted to for several reasons. First, minor Ukrainian counterattacks have slowed the Russian forces. Second, there has been bad weather, limiting the use of drones.
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka. They claim to have captured this town, but no evidence supports this claim. Ukrainian troops have posted pictures from this town to show their presence.
I have not read news from Verkhnokamyanske, so I assume nothing has changed here, but it is possible more is going on in the town. Spirne is in more or less the same situation. Both of these towns have Russian attacks with unknown consequences.
After capturing Mykolaivka, Russia has had limited success attacking Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka. Instead, Russia is heavily shelling both towns.
Russian forces have had limited success in the Krana Hora area, just north of Bakhmut. They captured a factory in the southern part of Krasna Hora, and they heavily contest the eastern part. However, the primary defensive positions on the western side of the town are holding well
More importantly, a railway runs through Paraskoviivka from north to south; this railway goes all the way through Bakhmut. Ukraine’s primary defensive line is along this railway.
In the northern part of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces slowly retreat to the railway.
In the east of Bakhmut, Ukraine is slowly withdrawing across the river. Russia is attacking along Gorky and Nekrasov street and along Vatutina Lane. They are also attacking north from the garbage dump area, where they have taken substantial casualties.
South of Bakhmut, near Opytne, Russia is attacking along Nezalezhnosti street. They are making progress here.
Near Ivanivske, Russian forces are fighting in the forests along the canal. Russians are worried about an impending counterattack and the vulnerability of their flank along this canal, which they have had limited success crossing.
However, as they press north to attack Ivanivske, this flank becomes increasingly vulnerable. For the past few weeks, I have expected a Ukrainian counterattack in this area to push Russia away from Chasiv Yar. However, this hasn’t happened yet. Although perhaps soon.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia attacked Vesele in the north, Kamyanka, and near the highway to the south. However, none of these attacks succeeded, and the attack in the south came with considerable casualties.
Russian forces are actively trying to push north from the Vodyane and Opytne area toward Sjeverne. They have made some progress.
Russian forces are also attacking Pervomaiske and Nevske without notable success.
In the Marinka area, Russian forces are attacking Krasnohorivka, although I believe these are just probing attacks.
There is active fighting in the south of Marinka, where Russian troops have crossed Druzhby Avenue to capture a small industrial area. They are also pushing toward Pobjeda and in the general direction of Novomykhailivka.
In the Vuhledar area, Russia is continuing its assault. They reportedly lost over 30 heavy vehicles today in various assaults.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, minor fighting is near Dorozhnyanka, south of Hulyaipole, and Nesterianka, south of Orikhiv.
Finally, Ukraine reportedly destroyed several Russian boats that attempted to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson region.
I made this image for the Kreminna area and it took me like 10 minutes to make and then I posted the wrong image. :(
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The news coming from the Velyka Novosilka area is very bad. There is no way to sugar coat it, the area has reached crisis and needs immediate intervention.
In short, Velyka Novosilka is the anchor of the southern defensive line. The line that runs from the Dnipro river to the east towards Donetsk. The Zaporizhzhia line. This west to east defensive line effectively ends in Velyka Novosilka. (note my map hasn't updated for the changes today)
Velyka Novosilka itself should have very good defenses, but the defenses are meant to stop attacks from the south, not the north and east.
Russia paying soldiers lump sums is not a method to get people to join the military, paying them is a way to make people not care about how many soldiers die.
Everyone knows soldiers are dying in huge numbers. But the money makes people think it is a gamble, not a tragedy. Nobody cares about a guy who signed up for quick money and died. They see it as quick easy money coming with huge risks and shrug. It is their own fault for joining.
It is simultaneously a lot of money and very little money. It is so much money that if you spent it wisely, you'd be set for life. But it is so little money most people will spend it all in a few weeks.
I just posted a map update, and many parts of the update have been written about by others already. But one interesting tidbit is the advance of Ukraine in Bilohorivka.
Here you see a Russian FPV Drone strike hitting a Ukrainian trench. You see that the trench crosses a road and has a hook shape. The trench is of relatively new construction, and cannot be seen on google map, nor other public high resolution images of the area. However, on google earth you can see the relative shape of the terrain (the Z axis is magnified 300% to exaggerate terrain features to make them easier to see. You can see that the trench runs along the crest of a hill. You can see the road it crosses, which is slightly lower than the ridge of the hill, on the reverse slope.
On sentinel, which is 10 meter resolution (a very low resolution image with few details), you can see the hook shape of this trench. This image is from October 24th, 2024, which is about 2 weeks ago.
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.
Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.
To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.
Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.