North of Kupyansk, in the Hryanykivka and Dvorichne area, Russian troops have pushed Ukraine back to their main line of defense along the railway. Their attempts to penetrate this defensive line have failed.
Russia has declared this some sort of victory, claiming they control the eastern part of Dvorichne. In reality, the east part was a gray area, and the Russian assault stopped when it met real resistance.
In the Kreminna area, Russian forces are continuing their push west, although they have not moved as far as they wanted to for several reasons. First, minor Ukrainian counterattacks have slowed the Russian forces. Second, there has been bad weather, limiting the use of drones.
In the Siversk area, Russia is attacking Bilohorivka. They claim to have captured this town, but no evidence supports this claim. Ukrainian troops have posted pictures from this town to show their presence.
I have not read news from Verkhnokamyanske, so I assume nothing has changed here, but it is possible more is going on in the town. Spirne is in more or less the same situation. Both of these towns have Russian attacks with unknown consequences.
After capturing Mykolaivka, Russia has had limited success attacking Rozdolivka and Vasyukivka. Instead, Russia is heavily shelling both towns.
Russian forces have had limited success in the Krana Hora area, just north of Bakhmut. They captured a factory in the southern part of Krasna Hora, and they heavily contest the eastern part. However, the primary defensive positions on the western side of the town are holding well
More importantly, a railway runs through Paraskoviivka from north to south; this railway goes all the way through Bakhmut. Ukraine’s primary defensive line is along this railway.
In the northern part of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces slowly retreat to the railway.
In the east of Bakhmut, Ukraine is slowly withdrawing across the river. Russia is attacking along Gorky and Nekrasov street and along Vatutina Lane. They are also attacking north from the garbage dump area, where they have taken substantial casualties.
South of Bakhmut, near Opytne, Russia is attacking along Nezalezhnosti street. They are making progress here.
Near Ivanivske, Russian forces are fighting in the forests along the canal. Russians are worried about an impending counterattack and the vulnerability of their flank along this canal, which they have had limited success crossing.
However, as they press north to attack Ivanivske, this flank becomes increasingly vulnerable. For the past few weeks, I have expected a Ukrainian counterattack in this area to push Russia away from Chasiv Yar. However, this hasn’t happened yet. Although perhaps soon.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia attacked Vesele in the north, Kamyanka, and near the highway to the south. However, none of these attacks succeeded, and the attack in the south came with considerable casualties.
Russian forces are actively trying to push north from the Vodyane and Opytne area toward Sjeverne. They have made some progress.
Russian forces are also attacking Pervomaiske and Nevske without notable success.
In the Marinka area, Russian forces are attacking Krasnohorivka, although I believe these are just probing attacks.
There is active fighting in the south of Marinka, where Russian troops have crossed Druzhby Avenue to capture a small industrial area. They are also pushing toward Pobjeda and in the general direction of Novomykhailivka.
In the Vuhledar area, Russia is continuing its assault. They reportedly lost over 30 heavy vehicles today in various assaults.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, minor fighting is near Dorozhnyanka, south of Hulyaipole, and Nesterianka, south of Orikhiv.
Finally, Ukraine reportedly destroyed several Russian boats that attempted to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson region.
I made this image for the Kreminna area and it took me like 10 minutes to make and then I posted the wrong image. :(
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I’m actually going to make the quote its own tweets so it is easier for people to use twitter’s autotranslator.
Давайте прямо на конкретном примере. Декабрь. Южнее Бахмута. Минометным огнем накрыли зэков из армейского подразделения (в ВС РФ также привлекают к службе заключенных, обещая им помилование). Под обстрел попала рота, стандартного для этой войны комплекта в 42 человека.
При самом обстреле погибло 3 человека, 21 получил ранения. Пока их вытаскивали оттуда, это заняло почти восемь часов, от кровопотери и шока умерли семеро. Это еще было время и желание разобраться, отчего они умерли. На выходе мы получаем 10 убитых и 11 раненых.
Russia is continuing their shellings of Ukrainian towns in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. In addition, there are occasional rocket strikes on cities beyond the border towns and rare reports of airstrikes.
Many believe this shelling is training for artillery and mortar crews, although maybe the rocket strikes are on more important targets. These shellings frequently result in civilian casualties and deaths, particularly in Vovchansk.
This Volya post I 100% agree with. I think this is spot on. Right now Russia is preparing an offensive that will be tied to a information war campaign. The goal is to make both Ukrainians and westerners, feel that the country is on the brink of disaster. t.me/volyamedia/520
I don’t know where the offensive will take place, I’m sure it will become increasingly obvious as time passes and we get closer, but I suspect they will attempt breakthroughs in multiple areas simultaneously, likely supported by missile attacks on infrastructure.
I think they will try to post as much misinformation as possible to make it seem like that have massive successes everywhere at once. Their goal will be to break the spirit of the west. And I believe they will fail.
Regarding Zaporizhzhia: I haven't been able to find firsthand accounts about Russia's attacks, which is a little frustrating. But I can find secondhand accounts (as opposed to random telegram posts, which are thirdhand garbage, at best) which are supported by vide evidence.
These sources point to a few basic facts.
1: this area is very difficult to successfully attack, and small movements have little or no value. Large movements require huge investments due to the enormity of the area that must be crossed (thus relative ease of defense).
2: The movements claimed versus supported by evidence are vastly different. The evidence suggests fields and farmlands are crossed, which is reasonable. The claims are large numbers of settlements captured. This would require significant evidence.