One, take the narrative of 2008 to 2022 was an anomaly, not the norm; what worked for millennials will not work for Gen Z - higher cost of capital will directly impact the growth rate.
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For every young person looking to start a business, don't follow what the millennials did (luckiest generation in my mind, including myself) in that 15-year Era...
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Two, it's uncanny how #inflation and fed rates spike just before a recession over a 70-year period. A fall in inflation and the first downward change in rates could be confirmation of a #recession...
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1. Fed increases the federal funds rate by 75 bips to 1.6 percent, this is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend overnight without collateral to other institutions.
Set to reach 4 percent by the end of the year.
2. T bills/bonds are the rate at which the US govt borrows to fund expenditure, this is at 3.45 percent.(10y)
Home Mortgage rates are now at 6 percent in the US, which shud lower demand for housing.
Similarly higher rates discourage Capex and borrowing, in theory this should slow down the economy and curtail inflation.
At 1.6 % while inflation has averaged 7 % for the first half of the year, inflation would need to fall to 3 % abruptly to get it to the short term 5 % tgt.