1THREAD on the investigation conducted by @MSCI_Inc on the “true” extent of “free float” of #Adani Group companies confirms prima facie the core allegation of the #Hindenburg report that the “public” shareholding is in violation of SEBI’s regulations.SEBI napping for >18 months?
2 MSCI reveals that several constituents of the Adani Group can no longer be eligible for its indices is damning indication that SEBI has been in gross dereliction of its key duties as a regulator. economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
3. MSCI, which had undertaken a review of its indices in which Adani Group company shares were constituents, immediately after the Hindenburg revelations. Contrast this to the Indian market regulator who has been sleeping at the wheel for 18 months.
4. “MSCI has determines that the characteristics of certain investors have sufficient uncertainty that they should no longer be designated free float pursuant to our methodology,” said the index provider.
5. No wonder Hindenburg founder Nathan Anderson says: “We view this as validation of our findings.”
6. The extent of actual free float lies at the very heart of the #Hindenburg allegations — inflated valuation of companies, their rapid growth and increasingly leveraged debt and all other issues emanate fundamentally from this core.
7. While a pvt market research co addressed the issues of the credibility and integrity of its indices, the natl watchdog has been revealed as a hapless spectator at worst, or one that is indulgent to oblige the demands of a buccaneering whims of a corporate czar at best. (END)
1.A THREAD on the Adani Enterprises FPO that closed today. The FPO sails through but this is unlikely to settle the share's volatility in the days ahead. Most significant facet of FPO was that non-institutional investors (NII) bid for 3.19 of the 5.08 crore shares bid for - 63%
2. But even more strikingly, even within the category of NII, those with bids of ABOVE Rs.10 lakhs accounted for 99.75 % of this category.
3. Thus, the biggest of the big ticket biggies, for whom 64 lakh shares were reserved, actually bid for 3.185 CRORE shares. Oversubscription in this subcategory was thus almost 5 times. The overall subscription of NIIs was 3.32 times.
1. As more questions continue to mount about the fate of the #Adani FPO, here is a THREAD on the LIC’s participation in it.
2. By its own admission the LIC management today made an unprecedented announcement “clarifying” its investment role in the controversial and sagging FPO.
3. Even more unprecedented is its blatant defence of a private company, even if one of India’s largest. This defence, mounted on the pretext that its inv in the Group are safe, in the immediate context of the collapse of Adani stocks, appears to justify its continued role.
THREAD
On latest GDP estimates
1.The statistical illusion cast by the use of percentages in the midst of volatility is a common malaise in the media. I explore this in this thread and ask how credible is the claim (yet again) that a recovery is just round the corner.
2.First the facts: GDP increased 8.7% in 2021-22; Q4 GDP rose 4.1%, compared to 2.5% in Q$ of 2020-21. Hints at a clear sign of a recovery? No, not so fast.
3.I ask: What constitutes an economic recovery? The reliance on %ages confuses RATES of growth with LEVELS OF OUTPUT. A recovery means pre-pandemic output levels have been surpassed significantly.
1 As the LIC share lists today, I ask a simple question: will the omniscient “market” reveal the true worth of India’s biggest life insurance company? I argue that it is pointless to argue over this. This thread explains.
2 If the share “pops” on debut day will it soothe the sagging fortunes of the stock markets? Or, if it slips close to the issue price of Rs 949, would it justify the gross undervaluation of the share in India’s biggest-ever privatisation scandal?
3 I argue that this is pointless. This is because the “market” for the LIC share today is unrecognisably different from the one that existed two months ago. It is almost as if they were two entirely different persona. thefederal.com/business/gross…
1As the #LICIPO opens today for retail investors here is a short thread of my pieces since 2020 revealing the anatomy of India’s biggest-ever privatisation scandal
2 I start with this piece, written in Feb 2020, after FinMin first announced intent to “sell” LIC. I asked: how can you sell something you do not even own? frontline.thehindu.com/economy/articl…
3 In this piece, written in early Feb 2022, I warned about the grave possibility of undervaluing #LIC, India’s Crown Jewel. This was written before the LIC’s DRHP was filed with SEBI newsclick.in/lic-ipo-underv…
Here I go with another THREAD on #LICIPO – updating my earlier figures, indicating an even bigger scam than I had revealed, published BEFORE the Red Herring Prospectus was revealed on April 27. Read that story here newsclick.in/lics-ipo-scam-…
1.THIS is the mother of all scams – the Balco privatisation scam of 2001 (during the Vajpayee days) pales in comparison. Let’s dive right into the pricing of the IPO because that is where the scam is.
2.The IPO is priced at Rs. 904-949/share. Lets forget the lower bound, its inconsequential. Retail investors & LIC employees get to pay a max of Rs. 904/share and Policyholders pay Rs. 889. Remember the Embedded Value estimate (Rs 853/share) made by Govt’s agent Milliman?