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Feb 10 • 6 tweets • 9 min read
In this week’s #ScienceInContext @thepragmaticape speaks to @ThomRawson & Dr Natsuko Imai about delaying 2nd dose of #COVID19 vaccine in 2020/21:

➡️ UK changed strategy to delay 2nd dose

➡️ More people gained good protection from 1 dose

➡️ Likely prevented thousands of deaths
Read all about the work modelling the impact of delaying 2nd doses of COVID vaccines in England, led by @dr_anne_cori and the team at @MRC_Outbreak @Imperial_Jameel and others, here
👇
imperial.ac.uk/news/243032/de…
📜‘Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study’ is published in @TheLancetPH

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
with @ThomRawson NatsukoImai @RaphaelS101 YasinElmaci EdwardKnock WesHinsley BimandraDiaafara HaoweiWang KeithFraser @pabloperguz @lilithwhittles @divyakanapram @mathModInf @rgfitzjohn @alexandrabh @DrPDoohan @azraghani @neil_ferguson @MarcBaguelin @dr_anne_cori
And for schools and teachers (but all adults too!) you can read this brilliant @SJforKids article explaining the study and what the team found
👇
sciencejournalforkids.org/articles/what-…
📺#ScienceInContext video produced by
@SabineLvE and @thepragmaticape

📽️Edited by @AlistairMB

Supporters and funders for this paper: @imperialcollege @UKRI_News @The_MRC @UKHSA @Imperial_Jameel @FCDOGovUK @NIHRresearch @wellcometrust

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More from @MRC_Outbreak

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Profile picture
Nov 27, 2020
UPDATE #COVID19 transmission

➡️3.5% chance of asymptomatic person vs 12.8% for symptomatic person to infect a close contact
➡️Chance of one household member infecting another is significantly higher when exposure is 5+ days vs 5 or less days

👇Report 38 imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf… Image
Collaborators & authors (1/3)
CentrodeSaludPúblicadeCastellón @CIBERESPCIO @UCC @UJIuniversitat @JohnsHopkinsSPH @unibait @ubdbuzz CantonalHospitalOlten DrPrabhakarKoreHospital ChangiGeneralHospital
Collaborators & authors (2/3):
@sctimst_tvm UNIRHealthSciencesSchool AziendaSanitariaUniversitariaFriuliCentrale @mysgh @mohbrunei2035

@hayleyadeliade Andria Mousa @amy__dighe HanFu AlbertoArnedo-Pena PeterBarrett JuanBellido-Blasco QifangBi AntonioCaputi LilingChaw
Read 4 tweets
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Profile picture
Jan 25, 2020
UPDATE: Transmissibility estimates of #coronavirus #2019nCoV at 2.6

Identification & testing potential cases to be as extensive as permitted by healthcare & testing capacity

🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…

@neil_ferguson @dr_anne_cori @SRileyIDD @MarcBaguelin @IlariaDorigatti
Summary 1/8 - Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that on average each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020
Summary 2/8 - this is based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective.
Read 10 tweets
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Profile picture
Jan 22, 2020
UPDATE: Report estimates 4000 cases #coronavirus #2019nCoV

Our estimate at 4,000 cases is more than double the past estimate due to increase of number of cases outside China. This should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size.

🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Thread 1/10: On January 17 we released estimates of the scale of the nCoV-19 outbreak in China based on an analysis of the number of cases detected outside mainland China.
Thread 2/10: Since then, cumulative confirmed cases reported by the Chinese authorities have increased 10-fold, to 440 by January 22nd.The number of detected outside China with symptom onset by 18th January had increased to 7 in the same time.
Read 12 tweets

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