A lot of research looks at this question, with the pioneering book Why Civil Resistance Works leading the way. WCRW is of unparalleled depth and comparative scope, and has been the chief reference for over a decade. 1/4
Some argue that WCRW's statistical findings suffer from incomplete data, but none checked whether this concern would actually infringe on the results. I discuss and simulate the role of missingness in WCRW, and find a substantial lack of robustness. 2/4
My findings highlight the importance of recent research to further disaggregate core concepts, collect new data, and to provide nuance to the discussion on civil resistance effectiveness. See eg @vdeminstitute's new measure for capturing historical mass mobilization. 3/4
I owe thanks to too many people to list individually, mostly at @PolResearchYork, @NTNUnorway, and @PRIOresearch. First and foremost, however, I'm indebted to @EricaChenoweth for providing immensely kind and profoundly helpful feedback on multiple ms versions. 4/4
PS. An ungated pre-copyedited version of the article is available via my website @ bit.ly/3HRsp6q
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