A lot of research looks at this question, with the pioneering book Why Civil Resistance Works leading the way. WCRW is of unparalleled depth and comparative scope, and has been the chief reference for over a decade. 1/4
Some argue that WCRW's statistical findings suffer from incomplete data, but none checked whether this concern would actually infringe on the results. I discuss and simulate the role of missingness in WCRW, and find a substantial lack of robustness. 2/4