1/ Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and recently demoted General Sergey Surovikin have been defeated in a bid to push out Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to a prominent Russian dissident. ⬇️ 
2/ According to Vladimir Osechkin, the founder of the Gulagu.net group, Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin formed a triumvirate last autumn in an unsuccessful attempt to take over the Russian Ministry of Defence and take control of the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
3/ Osechkin says that "Prigozhin was aiming for the post of first deputy head of the Ministry of Defence or for the post of defence minister. Kadyrov had plans to head the National Guard." Surovikin became the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine on 8 October 2022.
4/ However, Osechkin says, Russia's internal security agency, the FSB, found out about the plot. The trio got cold feet in a classic prisoner's dilemma. "Each of them was not prepared to risk his own well-being for the sake of a jointly successful bright future."
5/ Surovikin was the first to fall on 11 January 2023 after only three months in his position as overall commander. He was replaced by General Valery Gerasimov, who was likely seen as much more loyal to the regime.
6/ "Prigozhin used dirty methods, such as publicly insulting the generals, which did Surovikin a disservice," Osechkin says.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1623320614755880961?s=20&t=ZKo8seirA9E_pN9ssT-YkQ
7/ "Prigozhin and Kadyrov have tried in every way to demonstrate their closeness to Putin, but apart from occasional meetings between Putin and Kadyrov nothing has happened. We can see that no [favourable] personnel decisions have been made."
8/ Osechkin says that the FSB has for a long time been keeping a file on Prigozhin, who served a lengthy prison sentence for violent crimes in the 1980s. "And as long as there is such kompromat, there is no political future for Prigozhin," Osechkin predicts.
9/ "It would be a great blessing for Prigozhin if he lived to see his trial. Judging by the methods Putin is using, he is likely to be 'cleaned up'.
10/ Wagner's designation by the US as an international terrorist organisation may offer an excuse for the Russian government to wash its hands of the group and get rid of Prigozhin. A source tells the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel:
11/ "Things have changed drastically with Prigozhin and he is in urgent need of strong support. It used to be that politicians were trying to get close to him, with Slutsky and Mironov lining up.
12/ "Now, everything is changing before our eyes, and Prigozhin is trying to compensate for this with his media activity.
If he lets himself be forgotten now, then the Orchestra [Wagner] will be dropped from the agenda.
If he lets himself be forgotten now, then the Orchestra [Wagner] will be dropped from the agenda.
13/ "The Kadyrovites don't give a damn about being thrown off the agenda, but the Musicians do. Wagner, under the guise of fighting international terrorism, may now be squeezed out of its sources of support abroad [in Africa].
14/ In Russia, Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov remembers old grievances and will not let Prigozhin forget them. No support from the top is in sight. Prigozhin is urgently looking for solutions". /end
Sources:
🔹 t.me/mozhemobyasnit…
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/36461
Sources:
🔹 t.me/mozhemobyasnit…
🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/36461
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