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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Feb 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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#TheLongView

Pay attn to scales - some are inverted.

Notice the spread btw svix and q's now vs what it used to be... Takes a LOT more to pull markets higher (but svix is used to crush oil...)
🧵👇
Weird inflation measure - gold/platinum - its higher
Net liquidity
Global bond yields are higher
US 30y is higher (inverted scale)
USDJPY
The grand poobah that controls it all
JPYCAD - the manipulation machine
EURCAD
JPYEUR
JPYCAD
spy
Dont forget - $AAPL missed earnings...

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 19
So i was thinking - "man, the euro sure did change in value quite rapidly. EU cant afford to buy back that debt like that....this was an external state actor....

I wonder who that could be?"

To explain, if you earn USD and you live in EU?

Life right now sucks.
🧵👇 Image
if you are a europee and you wanna go vacation?

The world is your oyster....especially asia.

You can buy a LOT in asia.

Currencies are pairs, or ratios.

2nd chart EURVND is inverted - again proving my oint, currencies are pairs.

You get nearly 30000 vnd for 1 of your europees.Image
Image
But i wonder "who the fuck dumped EUR debt to do this". Either the ECB bought back debt (they cant) or someone international said "Fuck this im out"

Something happened March 4th that spooked the EU bond market.

Probably rate cuts. Image
Read 10 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 18
This is the vix.

👇🧵 Image
The vix is a MAJOR component of the EU$ system.

This is the formula for the EU$.

I have to invert the vix for you to see the correlation clearly.

(FX:USDJPY-1/CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE*2)/FX_IDC:USDGBP/(FX_IDC:USDEUR*0.576)/(TVC:VIX*0.000001)/24000000 Image
The EU$ is made up of oil, interest rates, currencies and volatility.

Every single component of the EU$ is actively managed by central banks.

Here is the vix, vs SPY, vs the formula (green)

2nd chart zoomed in.

My EU$ formula models the market with greater than an r2 of .96 Image
Image
Read 36 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 18
The US is going to ban Chinese ADR's.
Its coming.

Trump needs more leverage, and this will be part of that leverage.

In prior administration he already started the process...he's going to cut china off from US capital markets completely.
🧵👇 Image
What the hell is an adr?
sec.gov/investor/alert…
You can easily find them in finviz.com
just go to filter and select ADR

finviz.com/screener.ashx?… Image
Read 27 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 14
This is a currency/trade/capital flows thread.

Stay with me - you will like this, but its complex....

Genomics is the study of DNA, and the RELATIONSHIPS (pay attn to that) of those genes and how they interact with each other.

👇🧵
DNA is like the instruction manual for building that castle. It tells your body how to grow and what it should look like. It's like a super long, twisty ladder inside tiny parts of you called cells.
Genes are like the special LEGO bricks in the instruction manual. Each gene has instructions for a specific part of you, like your eye color or how tall you might grow.
Read 19 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 12
There is a different way to look at the US that very people think about.

Namely, the flow of $$ from US out to the planet

When the world sends USA cheap goods, its not just deflationary,but its also massively beneficial to foreign asset h0dlrs.

This is a currency thread
🧵👇
So first of all, understand trade.
US prints money, lends it into existence in US.
People use that $$ and buy stuff, usually from abroad.

They send us cheap crap, we send them worthless pieces of paper.
Its what they do with that cash is whats important.

Do they:
a) buy us Equities?
b) buy US debt?
c) lend it to other nations who need dollars?

Most countries internally do not use USD.
Read 54 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 6
Lets build.

This is the US02Y bond yield.

As yields on this debt instrument goes up?
The cost of borrowing goes up.

So when that green line goes up your credit card, variable mortgage, new car loan interest rate, student loan, all goes up.

The orange line is the SPR

🧵👇 Image
the 2y going up is NOT bullish....but it can be FAKED to MAKE it bullish.

The US did 2 things:
a) print a FUCK ton of money to sell to the world to devalue its currency
b) fucked with the vix

here is b) Image
and here is a)

The whole point of this was to devalue its way out of trouble.

Its also why you can no longer afford groceries and why your job is going overseas.

When covid hit the govt had the excuse to intervene (1)

But then they just couldnt stop spending.... (2) Image
Read 8 tweets

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