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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
@OAlexanderDK
Feb 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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🧵This video of a Ukrainian special forces assault on Snake Island in May just surfaced.

I believe that this was on the morning of May 7th based on a previous investigation of that date I have done with @ArtisanalAPT. I will lay out a timeline below

Some time prior to May 6th at 14:49 a Ukrainian TB-2 destroyed a Russian Tor on Snake snake Island.
We know that it was prior to May 6th at 14:49 as a satellite pass shared by AP from that time showed a building destroyed with was still intact on the video.
In the early morning hours of May 7th, two Ukrainian Air Force Su-27s bombed Snake Island.
At 04:20 local time on May 4th a Ukrainian TB-2 struck a Russian Serna-class landing craft on the island.

At 9:07 UTC on May 7th, two Ukrainian Sea Force 11M RIBs were seen on satellite moving away from Snake Island. I believe this is immediately after the assault shown on the newly released video.

A plume of smoke from the water and what appear to be life rafts were also visible.
According to this post logged in @oryxspioenkop's list, a Ukrainian Mi-14 was lost some time prior to May 9th after having been shot down by a Russian fighter aircraft.
A Ukrainian Naval aviator was killed some time around that date while performing a mission near Snake Island. The unit he was reportedly assigned to operates Mi-14s.
At least one of the Ukrainian Sea Force 11M RIBs was spotted right off Snake Island at 08:44 UTC on May 7th.
At 00:53 on May 8th a Russian Mi-8 was destroyed by a Ukrainian TB-2 while unloading troops. At the time there was confusion as to why the troops appeared to be expecting contact on Russian controlled Snake Island.

We now know a Ukrainian SOF strike took place the day prior.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 29
🧵The past 12 hours have seen very significant U.S. Air Force movement indicating an operation against Iran has likely been approved:

After a day layover, GOLD flight of KC-46A tankers are now dragging 6x EA-18G Growlers to Spain, where they will likely continue on to Qatar. Image
A conga line of C-17s have today flown out of several bases in the U.S. heading for Europe and the Middle East.

This includes 9 C-17 flights from Fort Hood which are likely the final air defense assets being moved to the AO near Iran.
The E-11A BACN (Battlefield Airborne Communications Node) has flown to Al Udeid which brings one of the final critical assets into the AO near Iran Image
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 24
🧵What does the video of the latest ICE shooting show us? A break down of what is visible:
First shots were fired by this officer as the person attempts to get back to his feet. The shots were fired into the man's back from the officer as seen in screenshot 2. Image
Image
Immediately after the first shots, the officer's scatter and the initial shooter fires several more rounds while backing up, as the man is lying motionless on the ground. Image
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jan 2
🧵1/10: Since the last thread, several things have shifted at once. Liquidity is tighter, REPO use is higher, household stress is clearer, and fiscal pressure is rising. The system is still working, but on thinner margins.

📷: @evgen1232007 Image
2/10: REPO has crossed an important line. It no longer spikes and fades. It keeps stepping higher and staying there. Recent auctions near ₽4.7tn show banks now rely on the central bank as a permanent funding source.
3/10: At the same time, net system liquidity has fallen deeper into negative territory. This means REPO is replacing lost deposits, not smoothing temporary gaps. That makes the system more fragile.
Read 10 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 27, 2025
🧵1/12: Russia’s economy hasn’t collapsed, but it is suffering immensely. It still runs, but only because the central bank keeps it alive with constant REPO liquidity. What was once emergency support is now the daily operating system.

📷:@evgen1232007 Image
2/12: REPO usage shows the stress clearly. Trillions of rubles are borrowed week after week by the banks with no unwind. Banks aren’t smoothing short-term shocks anymore. They are refinancing theirs and the economy's survival on a rolling basis. Image
3/12: Oil used to stabilize everything. Now it doesn’t. Russian crude sells at deep discounts due to Western and kinetic sanctions, and tax revenue per barrel keeps falling. Even when export volumes hold, the state earns far less from each barrel. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 28, 2025
Elvira Nabiullina is by far the most competent person in the Russian government and has almost single-handedly managed to keep the Russian economy afloat for the past year despite increasing pressure from above to change key policies. Image
She is however rapidly running out of black magic and the creative accounting required to continue her success. With Israel/Iran not causing the expected oil price surge, the record deficit is increasing and the methods of financing it are dwindling.
OFZs are being sold at record levels to state owned banks, but the high interest rate means the income is only just enough to cover the payments due on last year’s bonds.

The NWF’s liquid assets dipped below the government deficit last month further adding to the headaches.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 21, 2025
Summary of the significant evidence that the B-2s currently airborne are a strike package heading directly for Iran:

1. Immediate refuelling after departing from Whiteman Air Force Base indicates that the aircraft are carry close to their maximum payload.
If not an immediate strike, it is highly likely that the ordnance would have be pre-positioned at Guam or Diego Garcia with C-5 or C-17 transport aircraft in order to save the logistical headache of the additional aerial refueling and airframe stress.
2. If the B-2s continue onward to Iran they will arrive on target a few hours prior to opening of the Futures market at 6PM ET Sunday. This will give the Trump administration time to host a press briefing to calm the markets before they open.
Read 5 tweets

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