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Oliver Alexander Profile picture
@OAlexanderDK
Feb 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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🧵This video of a Ukrainian special forces assault on Snake Island in May just surfaced.

I believe that this was on the morning of May 7th based on a previous investigation of that date I have done with @ArtisanalAPT. I will lay out a timeline below

Some time prior to May 6th at 14:49 a Ukrainian TB-2 destroyed a Russian Tor on Snake snake Island.
We know that it was prior to May 6th at 14:49 as a satellite pass shared by AP from that time showed a building destroyed with was still intact on the video.
In the early morning hours of May 7th, two Ukrainian Air Force Su-27s bombed Snake Island.
At 04:20 local time on May 4th a Ukrainian TB-2 struck a Russian Serna-class landing craft on the island.

At 9:07 UTC on May 7th, two Ukrainian Sea Force 11M RIBs were seen on satellite moving away from Snake Island. I believe this is immediately after the assault shown on the newly released video.

A plume of smoke from the water and what appear to be life rafts were also visible.
According to this post logged in @oryxspioenkop's list, a Ukrainian Mi-14 was lost some time prior to May 9th after having been shot down by a Russian fighter aircraft.
A Ukrainian Naval aviator was killed some time around that date while performing a mission near Snake Island. The unit he was reportedly assigned to operates Mi-14s.
At least one of the Ukrainian Sea Force 11M RIBs was spotted right off Snake Island at 08:44 UTC on May 7th.
At 00:53 on May 8th a Russian Mi-8 was destroyed by a Ukrainian TB-2 while unloading troops. At the time there was confusion as to why the troops appeared to be expecting contact on Russian controlled Snake Island.

We now know a Ukrainian SOF strike took place the day prior.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 28
Elvira Nabiullina is by far the most competent person in the Russian government and has almost single-handedly managed to keep the Russian economy afloat for the past year despite increasing pressure from above to change key policies. Image
She is however rapidly running out of black magic and the creative accounting required to continue her success. With Israel/Iran not causing the expected oil price surge, the record deficit is increasing and the methods of financing it are dwindling.
OFZs are being sold at record levels to state owned banks, but the high interest rate means the income is only just enough to cover the payments due on last year’s bonds.

The NWF’s liquid assets dipped below the government deficit last month further adding to the headaches.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 21
Summary of the significant evidence that the B-2s currently airborne are a strike package heading directly for Iran:

1. Immediate refuelling after departing from Whiteman Air Force Base indicates that the aircraft are carry close to their maximum payload.
If not an immediate strike, it is highly likely that the ordnance would have be pre-positioned at Guam or Diego Garcia with C-5 or C-17 transport aircraft in order to save the logistical headache of the additional aerial refueling and airframe stress.
2. If the B-2s continue onward to Iran they will arrive on target a few hours prior to opening of the Futures market at 6PM ET Sunday. This will give the Trump administration time to host a press briefing to calm the markets before they open.
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Mar 7
Maxar has cut off satellite imagery access to Ukraine, undoubtedly due to pressure from the U.S. government.

This means that not just classified, but commercially available unclassified intelligence products are being cut off.

I now fully expect Starlink to be next.
*Insert 100th WAKE UP CALL FOR EUROPE tweet*
Image
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
All the videos of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight showing the damage show holes in the wreckage have entry holes on the port side and exit holes on the starboard side, likely with a slight angle from below.
Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer. Image
Image
Visible damage to the port side flap hinge fairing prior to the crash. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 24, 2024
🧵The Ursa Major was heading to Vladivostok and not en route to aid in the evacuation of Tartus.

Given cargo it carried, this is in fact even worse for Russia than if it had been heading to Tartus.
The Ursa was carrying two Liebherr 420 mobile cranes for the harbor in Vladivostok that is heavily backed up due to a lack of cranes and two 45-ton hatches for the construction of the new Project 10510 nuclear powered icebreaker.

obl.ru/pressa/news/po…
In this image you can see both of the the cranes, as well as grab buckets for bulk handling at the harbor in Vladivostok at the front of the vessel.

The loss of these cranes will severely hurt loading/unloading times in Vladivostok. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
🧵More and more pointing towards the Russia/HTS deal to keep their bases has fallen apart.

The media caught wind of the deal negotiations on the 12th.

On the 12th Russia started moving its valuable S400 system out of Khmeimim Air Base

On the 12th within 2 hours of each other, the Ursa Major left St. Peterburg for Vladivostok and the Sparta left Baltiysk for Port Said, Egypt.

Both locations that could easily send them to Tartus instead. Image
Image
On the 13th Russia decided to suspend grain shipments to Syria

Read 5 tweets

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