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Feb 14 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
🧵This video of a Ukrainian special forces assault on Snake Island in May just surfaced.

I believe that this was on the morning of May 7th based on a previous investigation of that date I have done with @ArtisanalAPT. I will lay out a timeline below

Some time prior to May 6th at 14:49 a Ukrainian TB-2 destroyed a Russian Tor on Snake snake Island.
We know that it was prior to May 6th at 14:49 as a satellite pass shared by AP from that time showed a building destroyed with was still intact on the video.
In the early morning hours of May 7th, two Ukrainian Air Force Su-27s bombed Snake Island.
At 04:20 local time on May 4th a Ukrainian TB-2 struck a Russian Serna-class landing craft on the island.

At 9:07 UTC on May 7th, two Ukrainian Sea Force 11M RIBs were seen on satellite moving away from Snake Island. I believe this is immediately after the assault shown on the newly released video.

A plume of smoke from the water and what appear to be life rafts were also visible.
According to this post logged in @oryxspioenkop's list, a Ukrainian Mi-14 was lost some time prior to May 9th after having been shot down by a Russian fighter aircraft.
A Ukrainian Naval aviator was killed some time around that date while performing a mission near Snake Island. The unit he was reportedly assigned to operates Mi-14s.
At least one of the Ukrainian Sea Force 11M RIBs was spotted right off Snake Island at 08:44 UTC on May 7th.
At 00:53 on May 8th a Russian Mi-8 was destroyed by a Ukrainian TB-2 while unloading troops. At the time there was confusion as to why the troops appeared to be expecting contact on Russian controlled Snake Island.

We now know a Ukrainian SOF strike took place the day prior.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Feb 15
Seymour Hersh in new interview about his Nord Stream post:

"I wouldn't even think to take a story like this to the New York Times, they have decided that the Ukraine war is going to be won by Ukraine and that's what its readers get, so be it"
Link to interview here:
"The stories I have been getting about the war, particularly beginning in fall and that's what gets interesting, have been pretty dire. I think the end is just a question of time, right now it is a question of people Zelenskyy wants to kill of his own people. It's gonna be over"
Read 11 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Feb 14
The Seymour Hersh situation gives such an interesting insight into confirmation bias.

“I believe him because of all the details”

All the details turn out to verifiably incorrect.

“The details don’t matter, he is still right!”
The Norwegian P-8 part of the story is a perfect example. Easily verifiable as not having happened as stated in Hersh’s story.

Then people start pivoting to American P-8s that flew over after the blast or weeks prior.
Sounds like a minor detail, except for the fact that Hersh’s entire story is built up around the premise that Biden specifically used Norwegian military assets to avoid leaks to Congress and the Gang of Eight.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Feb 14
Some people are in uproar that Seymour Hersh’s factual inaccuracy ridden mess isn’t receiving more MSM attention.

I am amazed that there has been no real MSM effort to debunk it. It isn’t hard, almost every detail is verifiably incorrect.

oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-hole…
Is it possible that the US destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline? Sure, as of now there is no public conclusive evidence pointing to any suspect.

Using Hersh’s article as evidence though is the same as using the Lord of the Rings trilogy as evidence of the existence hobbits.
In my opinion Russia still remains the suspect with the most motive for the events that happened.

Gasprom got to continue claiming force majeure on its failure to deliver contractually obliged natural gas to Germany and increased pressure on Germany while leaving a lifeline.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Feb 12
🧵There is one detail regarding the timing of the Nord Stream explosions that I have never really seen brought up.

The explosions on the 26th September 2022 coincided with the Russian sham referendums in the occupied regions of Ukraine.
While the pipelines were already essentially dead in the water at the time, Russia continued to state that it would be impossible to reopen them without the West lifting sanctions on Russia, as they claimed they needed parts to repair NS1
Once Russia decided to annex parts of Ukraine, the idea of sanctions being lifted went out of the window. As did any realistic chance of the Nord Stream pipelines being reopened.
Read 9 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Feb 8
Everyone should remember Seymour Herch doesn’t believe the Syrian government was behind the chemical weapons attacks, doesn’t believe that the U.S. killed Osama Bin Laden and doesn’t believe the Russian government was involved in the Skripal poisoning in the UK.
Also important to note that Seymour Herch basically always only uses “anonymous secret government sources”. From what he writes, it seems that he must have a highly placed anonymous source in basically every branch of every government.
The biggest hole in this theory remains that 3 out of 4 pipes were blown up and the one remaining pipe was the one easiest to reopen if Russia decided to restore gas supply to Germany.
Read 4 tweets
Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Feb 7
I had decided to let Chuck keep writing his fiction if it made him happy, the harm it caused was limited.

Now though he wants to claim I am a grifter because people can optionally subscribe to my Substack where I provide gas usage prediction models made from scratch.

1/
Personally I would consider grifting on Twitter to be pretending to be an expert in areas to gain a sizable audience, while at the same time lacking even basic knowledge about the subject.

Stuff like continuously and erroneously stating that ATACMS has a 500lb C4 warhead.

2/
I am still waiting on these Taganrog AFB images. Not even going to go into the details of how you are completely wrong about the A-100 (A-100 not in service yet).

Or back when the existence of smoke baffled Chuck during the Moskva sinking?

3/
Read 7 tweets

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