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The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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Feb 14 • 18 tweets • 9 min read
🧵
What the media won't tell you about extreme weather and its impacts

Here is a thread of some of the figures I've posted in recent months about extreme weather that I have never seen in legacy media reporting

All peer-reviewed and official sources . . .
Floods
IPCC finds no trends in flooding globally

Did you know that flood impacts in the US as a proportion of wealth are down >70% over 80 years?

Huge news, good news!

But don't tell anyone 🥸
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…
Drought
The IPCC finds no long-term trends in meteorological or hydrological drought

In Western Europe specifically there is no trend in drought over >150 years
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…
US heat waves
The US government's official metric for heat waves comes from a paper I co-authored more than 20 years ago

It shows an increase since ~1960s but a decrease since <1930s
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
US heat waves
During the past 50 years, when heat waves have increased, mortality from extreme heat has fallen pretty much everywhere in the US
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…

That is good news!
Let's keep it up
US (mainland) hurricanes
IPCC, WMO, UNNCA are all in agreement
No upwards trends in landfalling hurricanes, including the strongest storms

Have you ever seen these graphs in the media (aside from Bill Nye and his sharpie;)
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
US disaster costs

As a proportion of GDP US disaster costs have gone down

More good news!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/billion-doll…
European disaster costs

As a proportion of GDP European disaster losses have gone down

Even more good news!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/making-sense…
Global weather and climate disaster losses

As a proportion of GDP global disaster (weather and climate, but also overall) have gone down

Great news!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe…
Disasters

This century the number of disasters tracked by EM-DAT has not increased, in fact down a bit

Important to understand why so that progress with respect to the Sendai Framework can be maintained!
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe…
US tornadoes

Reports of the strongest US tornadoes (EF3+) which cause ~70% of death and destruction are down in the long and short terms

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
Damage from tornadoes supports the data on falling numbers of the strongest tornadoes

Both inflation-adjusted and normalized tornado losses have decreased
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
Normalized US hurricane losses

As we would expect with no up-trend in US landfalls there is no trend in normalized US hurricane losses since 1900
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/pielkes-week…
Global hurricane landfalls

Lots of ups and downs over 70+ years but no overall trend

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac…
Global hurricane energy

More ups and down but no trend since 1980

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac…
Global hurricane energy per storm

No trend since 1980
Storms are not getting stronger but fewer

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac…
Everything you find in this thread
Everything
Is consistent with what has been reported in the IPCC & found in official data and the peer-reviewed literature

Shhh ... don't tell anyone

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-under…
If you want to understand what the science of extreme weather, climate and disasters actually says, please sign up to The Honest Broker

Amazing to me that some of the things I write about you cannot find anywhere else

So I'm not gonna stop

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
Feb 12
🧵Coming tomorrow at The Honest Broker
The latest in my series
What the media won't tell you about . . .

Tornadoes

Subscribe and don't miss it: rogerpielkejr.substack.com

Previously in the series . . . Image
What the media won't tell you about ...

Hurricanes
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
What the media won't tell you about ...

U.S. Heat Waves
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
Read 6 tweets
The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
Jan 16
Keep doom alive!

A new climate reality: Less warming, but worse impacts on the planet
The most severe climate change scenarios now appear less likely, but extremes are nonetheless poised to overwhelm societies, scientists say washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
This whole article reads like a response to our recent work, such as this with @matthewgburgess @jritch

pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

A cherry-picked bounty of climate doomism drawing on the most quotable doomers
One year ago I asked

Is the World Ready for Good News on Climate?
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/is-the-world…

Major media says not if we can help it, we’re gonna ride the doom train as long we they can🤣
Read 7 tweets
The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
Jan 12
🧵
Over a decade ago I wrote about what I considered to be a silly debate over light bulbs, which oddly enough, for a quick moment became politicized

Here is a short thread on gas stoves used for cooking
A reader of THB (🙏) sent me this literature review of studies of the indoor air pollution effects of cooking, candles and incense

I’m a nerd so I read it over my coffee this morning

Some of what I learned …

osti.gov/biblio/1172959 Image
Cooking indoors = emissions

The type of stove matters to emissions rates

If you really care about emissions and not politics, then focus on cooking with oils = emissions ~10x of gas stoves

Want to regulate something to reduce indoor emissions?

Cooking oil!
Olive, corn etc Image
Read 10 tweets
The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
Jan 5
🧵Let's take a quick look at Paul Ehrlich's self-described most important intellectual influences

In the excerpt below from Ehrlich's new book (2023), he name checks Theodosius Dobzhansky and Ernst Mayr

Who were they? Image
Dobzhansky was the president of the American Eugenics Society from 1964-1973 and chair of its board from 1969-1975

Dobzhansky is often recognized for rejecting a racial element of eugenics but was a eugenicist all the same

See Ramsden 2009
jstor.org/stable/27793328
Mayr was also a eugenicist who worried that eugenics association with racism would derail discussions of overpopulation - "drown in human bodies" & proposed the need to get government approval to reproduce

Mayr 1971
collections.nlm.nih.gov/ext/document/1… Image
Read 4 tweets
The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
Jan 5
🧵
This 1971 review of Ehrlich and Ehrlich by Roger Revelle titled, "Paul Ehrlich: New High Priest of Ecocatastrophe" is really something
doi.org/10.2307/2134034
The poor should stay poor, to allow more for us
Hence the concept of "never-to-be-developed countries"
I had no idea Revelle was so spicy:

"No one can blame the Ehrlichs, living within a few miles of the Bay Shore Highway between San Francisco and San Jose, for thinking that the four-fold growth of California's population since 1930 is a disaster"
Read 4 tweets
The Honest Broker by Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
Jan 5
Why I do not trust hurricane studies, example 1763

A new paper claims:

From 1980 to 2014
➡️88 US hurricane landfalls
➡️of which 22 were Category 4 or 5
Big if true

Not true
In actual fact
➡️55 US hurricane landfalls
➡️of which 4 were Category 4 or 5
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… ImageImage
Given that this entire paper is based on a model calibrated to erroneous landfall statistics the paper likely needs to be retracted, as there is really no fix other than a re-do

But before any re-do, they'll want to address other issues

How does such a simple error get thru PR?
Eagle-eyed @RyanMaue notes my axis is off (I got 1979 in there, not enough coffee), actually only 3 from 1980-2014
Hugo, Andrew, Charley Image
Read 5 tweets

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