(1/22) In this 🧵we cover why it perhaps is premature to rule out Elon Musk buying #MUFC, and especially look at a couple of aspects that have yet to be covered, that greatly increase the odds of this takeover taking place.
(2/22) The report of Musk’s interest to by MUFC has not really been taken seriously. Reactions has varied from total disbelief to at best speculations on how nothing can be ruled out when it comes to Elon Musk. There are however many scenarios – other than it...
(3/22)..being an ‘act of madness’ – that could explain his interest in the club. In this thread, we will look closer at three of them. First of all, it is important to remember that Elon Must has a long history of cooperating with Saudi Arabia.
(4/22) Lately, it has been widely covered how the Saudis’ helped funding and participated in Musk’s takeover of Twitter, which has raised concerns about “potential influence” by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on Twitter’s operations. axios.com/2022/11/01/elo…
(5/22) But this cooperation goes further back in time. In 2018, Musk and the Saudis had well developed plans to take the entire Tesla company private, which lead to Musk’s famous “Funding secured” tweet. theguardian.com/technology/202…
(6/22) So Elon Musk, the PIF and Saudi Arabia are close, so what? Any deal involving the Saudi’s has a big transaction risk due to the #Khashoggi slaying. What does that mean? If the Glazers accept an offer from the Saudis…
(7/22)..there is a risk that the transaction does not go through, due to for example widespread fan protests. That would be a disaster. Hence, I think any reasonable adviser would advise – against – accepting a Saudi bid, if any other bid at least is in the same vicinity.
(8/22) The Saudis see a lot of high profile assets – which are sought after by sovereign wealth funds with a long investment horizon – being snatched up by their neighbors. Any business done by Musk, involves the Saudis. If Musk buys MUFC, and the Saudis take a 10-20% stake, …
(9/22)…they have a so called strategic corner meaning that nobody can buy the club – after Musk -- without being accepted by the Saudis. In practice, they get an option to buy MUFC after Musk.
(10/22) In short, I cannot see the Saudis winning an auction for MUFC, but by financing Musk’s acquisition of the club as well as taking on a minority share – the opportunity to take a long-term position in MUFC is not lost.
(11/22) The second reason: “Buying” MUFC is in all likelihood – much much cheaper – for Elon Musk than for Qatar. Why? The Glazers owns 67% of the shares in MUFC. 33% is floated on the NYSE. If Qatar is to buy the club, invest a lot of money in developing…
(12/22)…not only OT but the land around it, I cannot see how they would not go for buying all shares of the club (technically through a merger). It is however perfectly possible to gain full control of the club, by just buying the Glazers’ 67% stake through…
(13/22)…an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction with the siblings. No obligation to make a mandatory offer to the remaining minority owners exists in the MUFC plc’s jurisdiction (the Cayman Islands).
(14/22) If someone pays 6bn for all shares of MUFC in a merger, the Glazers get £4.02bn. Hence, from the Glazers’ point of view, an offer of £4.03bn for their shares in an OTC transaction is more lucrative. Musk would surely not shy away from leaving 33% of MUFC’s…
(15/22)…shares on NYSE. So what does this mean? If the Qataris are offering to buy all shares of MUFC for 5bn, Musk could match that offer – from the siblings’ POV – by offering £3.35bn for their shares only. If the Saudis’ take 20% and say a specialist sports fund take 15%...
(16/22)…Musk must “only” ante up £2.177bn.
(17/22) Thirdly, this is not my area of expertise, but it is very easy for a sport owner – doing it right – to be popular. Musk’s public image is definitely at an all-time low right now. While Musk is a lot of things, he is not dumb.
(18/22) The SEC has forced him to step away from Tesla. He has communicated with “twitter” using twitter language. But he is not the man to lead Twitter as a company, and will soon step down from the CEO position.
(19/22) Tesla’s honeymoon is over, with all other car brands starting to market competing EV products. Musk will not have a hard time getting the hours to pass, but between sparse SpaceX project news, he will have a hard time getting good press going forward.
(20/22) Like the Evening Standard speculate on in the below piece, its not like it would not be “positive” for Musk to own MUFC. We have the biggest fan base in the world. He benefits from good press and marketing. 2+2=Matic standard.co.uk/tech/why-elon-…
(21/22) So do I think Elon Musk will buy MUFC? No, when creating a short list of who I thought were the most likely to buy the club back on December 1, I put Qatar at No 1. Simply because it made the most sense for them, they get the biggest synergies. Qatar is still my No 1.
(22/22) But my first reaction to Musk's reported interest was that it was a ploy. However, for the reasons pointed out above, I would -- not -- rule it out. The Saudis could be pushing, the price isn't as high, and there are of course advantages for Musk with owning the club.
BTW, my twitter following isn't the biggest, if you like this thread, smash a like and retweet it! Many more threads to follow in the near future.
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There is one reason and one reason only why this case is not settled yet. When the PL launched the procedure for the 115 charges, City made sure that it got stuck in the courts for almost 3 years challenging every technical aspect it could to delay it.
A summary:
November-December 2018: The Premier League write to City requesting certain information and documents in relation to potential breaches of their rules — known as the information claim. City object to the request — after what has been published by Der Spiegel/the Football Leaks.
21 August 2019: The PL issue a complaint against City, since it has still not received the documents and information it has the right to receive under the Premier League Rules and which City refuse to give the PL access to. City responds by challenging the PL's disciplinary system, challenging a technicality (only highly regarded barristers could be elected for the commission).
22 October 2019: With the documents and information not forthcoming, the PL begin arbitration against the club seeking a declaration that they are contractually obliged to provide them. The club try to stop the arbitration by arguing to the tribunal involved that the PL had no power to start it. They also claim that the tribunal does not appear impartial.
26 June 2020: City issue an application in the Commercial Court repeating their argument that the tribunal lacks jurisdiction on the information claim and is tainted with “bias”.
2 November 2020: City’s claim that it has no obligation to to pass on the requested information and documents to the PL — is rejected. It’s clearly stated in the rules that they must do so. The order to provide them is however postponed pending the outcome of the Commercial Court case.
17 March 2021: In the Commercial Court, Mrs Justice Moulder more or less summarily dismisses the club's challenge to the jurisdiction and impartiality of the tribunal, dismantling the City’s lawyers arguments clearly hinting that it was felt that it had abused the public court system. She refuses permission to appeal her judgment.
24 March 2021: Mrs Justice Moulder said her judgment should be published, in order to reveal the lengths to which City had attempted to resist passing on information to the PL. City successfully seeked permission to appeal the decision to make the information public in the Court of Appeal. So we get another delay (I think you are starting to get the drift by now, it’s an appeal of an appeal of an appeal about a pure nonsense technicality. On a side
30 June 2021: The Court of Appeal opens its hearing into the club's appeal against publication. The Court of Appeal handed down its decision dismissing the appeal.
So it took the PL almost three years to just have it sorted out that it has the right to receive the information the Premier League Rules clearly states that City must submit to the PL. After this, we know that City made another challenge of the impartiality of an experienced barrister in no way connected to the Premier League, in KC Murray Rosen. How much delay this caused is unknown.
During this time, City was also sentenced by UEFA for failing to produce requested information and delaying procedures.
I am sure we all come across City PR people, at twitter, during City’s PCs, and so forth, telling us that the reason no decision have been made against City is because it is quote “complicated“. Decide for yourself!
Lastly, in this entire shambolic procedure and abuse of the game of football, one person have done more than all fancy pundits, journalists and experts combined — to protect the integrity of the game — and should be singled out and that is Justice Dame Clare Moulder. Without her…
Despite what seems to be attempts for interference on the governmental level, she took the bold decisions set out above without which it’s perfectly possible that we still wouldn’t be aware of the charges and that still would have been caught in some court somewhere.
Someone cynical might speculate on that it was a blessing that she ended up drawing this case just before her retirement in 2022, when she had nothing to lose, but since I am not cynical/conspiratorial — I wouldn’t believe that. But it’s the one big loss City have had in the judicial system up until now despite some pretty horrible looking circumstances speaking against the club… 😅
🚨🚨🚨Very remarkable that the @FA_PGMOL selects Michael Oliver for the FA Cup Final -- despite it appearing to be a possible breach of the FA's "Regulations for the Registration and Control of Referees".
🔺A referee has an obligation to decline an appointment if he has a "material interest" conflicting with his duties.
🔺Does Michael Oliver have a material conflict of interest? Oliver has -- this season -- accepted what reportedly was a well paid assignment from Manchester City's owner.
Is this material? A Premier League referee can of course not be on the payroll of an owner of a PL club playing in one of the game he is reffing. An auditor who works as a referee on the side and has a client that is a football club, cannot ref a game involving that team. It is different if your cousin's son play for a team or something like that, in which case it could be argued that it is not material. But it speaks for itself in relation to the Premier League, that a ref can't work for one of the owner of a PL club.
What was Oliver paid for his work in the UAE? Say that it was first class tickets to Abu Dahbi, three nights in a five star hotel, and £5,000 for "90 minutes of work" -- I cannot see how anyone could find that it is not 'material'. What would the threshold be, "you can accept payments from an owner of a PL club as long as it is under £50k?"
If Michael Oliver becomes the public enemy No 1 of City after awarding three incorrect penalties to MUFC -- does he get another offer to call games for the UAE Pro League next season?
So what is the problem? Is there any question-marks if the UAE Pro League is controlled by City's owner, Sheikh Mansour, who is the deputy prime minister of the UAE and a core member of the ruling royal family?
It is generally stated that it is not possible in the UAE to separate different parts of government even from the private business sector. KC Murray Rosen -- who is the chair of the PL's Independent Disciplinary Commission handling the City Case -- could for this reason never accept an assignment from the UAE to say prepare a draft for a new constitution or whatever, while being in charge of the City case. It wouldn't even be considered for three seconds. A government official in charge of a large multi billion public procurement for which Sheik Mansour have made a bid, could never accept well paid side job from the UAE while considering Mansour's bid, without facing grave risk of breaking the law. It is unthinkable that this would be accepted. I am not an expert on English law, if anyone familiar with these issues in the UK think I am on thin ice here, let me know.
🔺So why did Howard Webb tell Michael Oliver that he could take the job? And does it matter? First of all, I think Howard Webb should answer this question. Maybe he didn't know that City was owned by the deputy prime minister of the UAE? He was a good ref, maybe geography, politics or whatever isn't one of his strengths... I just cannot imagine that Webb even would consider telling a Michael Oliver that it was OK for him to say accept an offer of 20k from the Glazers to fly to Florida and call a charity game arranged by the Glazers.
But I don't know know the reasons for why he accepted it, I am just speculating.
But does it matter if Webb gave a green light? Of course not, it is completely irrelevant, at least as far as I can tell. Michael Oliver must comply with the FA's fundamental rules for referees. Howard Webb appears to have zero authority to set aside these rules.
And I have said it before, I am very surprised that a PL ref even would consider accepting an assignment from the owner of a PL club. How can they not realize how problematic that is?
🔺But surely, Michael Oliver -- will -- be impartial? But it is completely irrelevant. This is because the Conflict of Interest rules does not exist exclusively to ensure impartiality, it is deemed to be just as important to safe guard the integrity of the game. Let say that it came out that Howard Webb while being a PL ref had been paid 5m by J.P. McManus for a side gig while McManus was the majority owner of Manchester United -- it would significantly damage the integrity of the game, regardless if Webb called every game in an impartial way and never felt any obligation towards Mr. McManus.
🔺From my viewpoint, this is clearly a very problematic issue and I have to say that I think that it is remarkable that the the PGMOL -- in light of the above -- still appoints Michael Oliver to referee the FA Cup Final when Manchester City is playing in it.
Anyone savvy should set up an online petition to get Oliver removed, PGMOL doesn’t have to pick the one referee who appears to quite possibly have a conflict of interest to be VAR for the FA Cup Final.
The PL have enough issues with “asterisks” as it is…
💣💣🚨🚨With the Everton decision at hand, it is now possible to -- with far greater certainty than before -- predict the outcome of the Manchester City case.
In my view, it must now be expected that MCFC will get EXPELLED from the PL!! ⚠️
A 🧵.
What is MCFC charged for? The below table summarize the charges, they can be sorted under 5-6 categories, I would say that it is 32 charges, some will say 115 since each "X" regards several provisions in the PL Rule Book.
Some of these charges are really complex -- but not all!
MCFC for example admitted a breach to, and was sanctioned by, UEFA in 14' -- which is a breach of the PL rules.
The PL also claims that agreements have been made to pay wages and transfer fees under the table in 2010 and 2011, which seems to be supported by strong evidence.
A 🧵on why those decisions were — completely irrelevant — and what indisputably cost us the game.
Can anyone disagree with the below?? And can anyone give even a suggestion of what ETH could have done different??? Comment 👇.
At the 16:15 mark, MUFC were in the games. It then changed completely. Why? After failing to play up from the back ONCE — MCFC controls the play for 4:07. At the 20:22 mark, when the ball goes out of play 👇, nobody would say that the game is even.
So what happens next? The exact same thing over again, we fail to play up from the back, MCFC gains control, and draws the FK — resulting in MCFC’s penalty at 22:45.
🚨🚨💣💣 #MUFC's Q4 report is out, part II. What is our FFP status? A 🧵 looking at (a) how much we can spend in January and (b) how much we can spend during the summer of 2024. Lets dive into it! 🔰
🔺First of all, what we spend in January, will impact our profit from the 23/24 season. In the summer of 2024, PL and UEFA will determine if we are compliant with their FFP provisions against this and other seasons.
Under the UEFA provisions and namely the Football Earnings Rule (#FER), during the summer of 2024, our aggregate earnings from 22/23 + 23/24 cannot be lower than -60 MEUR.
🚨💣A 🧵 covering all relevant questions on the takeover of #MUFC! I think it is safe to say that we now can answer what will happen to:
🔺 the Management Personnel;
🔺the Transfer Budget;
🔺 Old Trafford and Carrington; and
🔺 MUFC's position in a MCO.
Lets dive into it!💪
🔺IS IT DONE?
No. The proposed structure is complex and 'custom made' for this deal. A lot of details must be agreed on between Ineos and the Glazers. Before an agreement is in place, I would not trust the Glazers.⚠️
🔺HOW DOES INEOS OFFER WORK? (1/5)
It will have three components: (1) one share purchase, (2) one agreement between the Glazers & Ineos on management of the club, and (3) an investment injecting funds into MUFC.
The result of the purchase of shares an be assumed to be: