Back when I was hanging at @KauffmanFDN writing things and making mouth noises I used to argue that some of the best markets for young companies weren't new ones, but existing ones where you can make it non-viable for incumbents. #xp
There are a bunch of reasons for this, not least of which is that when you make a financial ecology difficult, it changes the predation game, sometimes in your favor as a new company that can price or do things very differently. #xp
But the other reason isn't said enough, that it's _good_ when people are already spending gazillions on things, because then you don't have to convince them to spend more on something new. People and companies don't like to do that. #xp
You just want to say, Take some of what you're spending here, and spend it here instead. No new spending required. Or, take what you used to spend here, and weren't satisfied, and spend it here instead. That can work too. #xp
Most companies, like people, don't have a pool of Money I'd Like To Spend But Haven't Because I'm Waiting For A Company To Come Along And Ask For It. Sure, it happens, but don't bank on it. Bank instead on convincing them to change where they're spending, not spend more. #xp
This is among the reasons I'm very down on newsletters and podcast subscriptions. Out of what pocket do hope-filled purveyors of such things imagine that subscription revenues will come from? I know I'm not sitting around thinking I WISH I COULD SUBSCRIBE TO MORE THINGS. #xp
Now, I am sitting around thinking I wish there was Thing X that could do a better of Y than Thing Z, on which I'm spending more than it's worth or whatever. That is a daily thing. But that's different from me spending more, just because it's somehow good for you. #xp
So, a good starting point is, Would I subscribe to this? Am I subscribing to this under a different name? Would I stop paying for that and pay for this? Am I a complete weirdo, or are there others like me? The grail quest for new spending is generally doomed. #xp
Postscript: There are, of course, exceptions, and many of them. Among my favorites is meditation apps, which have exploded into a billion-dollar category. What were people doing before with that money? Lighting it on fire to heat the house? One wonders.
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Early morning skate-skiing around frozen lakes in the alpine this morning. Lovely and quiet, but brutal aerobic effort. Going from sea level to 8,500 feet and then skating some miles is ... work.
Pic and elevation
Btw, those dead trees are from volcanic C02 outgassing events, which come and go in this location, with disastrous tree consequences.
The AI revolution in the workplace has only just begun, and people are already realizing who is supervising whom. wsj.com/articles/ai-ch…#xp
I had a conversation with an economist friend the other day, who argued that in the long run, automation creates more jobs than it displaces. Yes, historically this has been true, even if the N is small wrt macrocycles of automation. #xp
But job disruption tends to happen much faster than the creation of new jobs, which is, in part, what led to the textile mill riots and Ludditism in the 19th century. Job displacement on a much larger scale today in a more fragile society will be profoundly destabilizing. #xp
So, a quick story, without naming names. Years ago two nice guys building an outdoorsy company came to me and explained what they were doing, and said that ... I had inspired them to do it. It was people, like me, they said, that they were targeting. #xp
As I always say when people say I'm their target market, I said "You're probably fked". After all, I'm a weirdo one-off, and extrapolating from me to a mass-market will generally lead you rapidly to financial crisis. #xp
I kept tabs on them over the years, however, and things were going well enough, it seemed. And then today I found out they were doing almost $200m in revenues, with no investors: the founders have the whole thing. #xp
Heretical, but ... flat-rate pricing is what's destroying the ski industry, not algos. Resorts are overrun by people on season passes, resulting in massive lines. Dynamic pricing is one solution.
Granted, resort skiing is a ridiculous, mass-affluence non-sport sport. I would be perfectly happy to have it eat itself, goaded on by flat-rate pricing, private equity owners, yield management algos, etc., so I'm admittedly an unreliable narrator here.
Failing that, we're likely to see more resorts eventually impose daily quotas, or even become private clubs, as is happening in various places. As I say too often, the physical world does not scale to digitally-aided and abetted appetites.
I try not to say much about the current AI/chat mania, because it mostly makes me want to punch me in the face repeatedly, but I will say that I find monied tech bros' paeans to a post-AI UBI (universal basic income)... instructively stupid.
I mean:
1) We ran the experiment of paying people to stay at home and surf the Internet already, and the main byproducts were the Capitol riots, Qanon, and OnlyFans. Do it a second time and ... well, let's not.
2) If said bros think that people having jobs, even ones they hate, isn't essential to self-worth and societal stability, they need to read more widely in history and philosophy—but at least more than their diet of inbox pitches and wackaloon Substacks.
Been messing with fitness watches, and ending up in my usual Paul Is Cheap mode of thinking, "Fk it, I'll just keep what I have". My current is a beat-up Fenix 6, and I'm a longtime Fenix user, dating back three versions. A quick summary of devices I've now messed with. #xp
Fenix 7
Pros: Touch screen, terrific battery life (14 days), and no scratches.
Cons: Not that much better than my Fenix 6, scratches aside
Epix 2
Pros: Touch screen, higher resolution screen, and no scratches
Cons: Ridiculous price, the screen is a bit whack in bright light, shorter battery life (6 days)