New meta-analysis out confirming that even modest numbers of steps are protective wrt cardiovascular health. It only takes as few as ~2,300 steps a day to make a difference. As @hjluks and I were just discussing over text, it is important to celebrate people getting out even once or twice a day and moving, given how little the average person moves on a daily basis.

Lots of chatter about a new Goldman Sachs AI report today, understandably given its top-line claims that 300m+ jobs worldwide could be affected. In general, while comprehensive, it takes a fairly traditional view of the likely disruptions ahead, applying an augmenting vs displacing framework, typical for automation analysis.

I got a notice that a service to which I had subscribed and forgotten was recently renewed, which led to me canceling it. And my general rule is that I always have to cancel two services if I cancel one, so I gleefully just ended a second subscription. Hugely satisfying. This reminds of what a friend with an email newsletter has told me, that the best way to get people to cancel, once paying, is to send them anything. People are best not reminded of what they have subscribed to.

Hearing regularly from high school and college students dispirited at essentially being forced to use CGPT to write essays and do homework, given that their peers are, and they are at a competitive and time disadvantage without it, even if they'd like to, you know, learn. People know exactly how much text/response modulation is required to avoid detection, and it isn't much. As a result, there is no fear of being caught, and the risk of falling behind peers who are faking it is immense.

On the California Sierra Nevada snow situation, saw a note from a major snow removal contractor today pleading with second homeowners to not come, given they can no longer blow snow high enough to clear 30-40-foot snowbanks along driveways and guarantee home access. This is exactly the kind of "long emergency" with which humans cope poorly, as opposed to a hurricane, where bad things happen, and then the storm moves on. Risk is piling on risk in mountain communities, and at this point many should be cordoned off or evacuated. #xp

Early morning skate-skiing around frozen lakes in the alpine this morning. Lovely and quiet, but brutal aerobic effort. Going from sea level to 8,500 feet and then skating some miles is ... work. Pic and elevation

The AI revolution in the workplace has only just begun, and people are already realizing who is supervising whom. wsj.com/articles/ai-ch… #xp I had a conversation with an economist friend the other day, who argued that in the long run, automation creates more jobs than it displaces. Yes, historically this has been true, even if the N is small wrt macrocycles of automation. #xp

So, a quick story, without naming names. Years ago two nice guys building an outdoorsy company came to me and explained what they were doing, and said that ... I had inspired them to do it. It was people, like me, they said, that they were targeting. #xp As I always say when people say I'm their target market, I said "You're probably fked". After all, I'm a weirdo one-off, and extrapolating from me to a mass-market will generally lead you rapidly to financial crisis. #xp

Back when I was hanging at @KauffmanFDN writing things and making mouth noises I used to argue that some of the best markets for young companies weren't new ones, but existing ones where you can make it non-viable for incumbents. #xp There are a bunch of reasons for this, not least of which is that when you make a financial ecology difficult, it changes the predation game, sometimes in your favor as a new company that can price or do things very differently. #xp

Heretical, but ... flat-rate pricing is what's destroying the ski industry, not algos. Resorts are overrun by people on season passes, resulting in massive lines. Dynamic pricing is one solution.

Arizona Ski Area Has the Priciest Lift Ticket at $300+ skimag.com/news/arizona-r… Granted, resort skiing is a ridiculous, mass-affluence non-sport sport. I would be perfectly happy to have it eat itself, goaded on by flat-rate pricing, private equity owners, yield management algos, etc., so I'm admittedly an unreliable narrator here.

I try not to say much about the current AI/chat mania, because it mostly makes me want to punch me in the face repeatedly, but I will say that I find monied tech bros' paeans to a post-AI UBI (universal basic income)... instructively stupid. I mean:

1) We ran the experiment of paying people to stay at home and surf the Internet already, and the main byproducts were the Capitol riots, Qanon, and OnlyFans. Do it a second time and ... well, let's not.

Been messing with fitness watches, and ending up in my usual Paul Is Cheap mode of thinking, "Fk it, I'll just keep what I have". My current is a beat-up Fenix 6, and I'm a longtime Fenix user, dating back three versions. A quick summary of devices I've now messed with. #xp Fenix 7
Pros: Touch screen, terrific battery life (14 days), and no scratches.
Cons: Not that much better than my Fenix 6, scratches aside