Paul Kedrosky Profile picture
Feb 16 4 tweets 2 min read
So, a quick story, without naming names. Years ago two nice guys building an outdoorsy company came to me and explained what they were doing, and said that ... I had inspired them to do it. It was people, like me, they said, that they were targeting. #xp
As I always say when people say I'm their target market, I said "You're probably fked". After all, I'm a weirdo one-off, and extrapolating from me to a mass-market will generally lead you rapidly to financial crisis. #xp
I kept tabs on them over the years, however, and things were going well enough, it seemed. And then today I found out they were doing almost $200m in revenues, with no investors: the founders have the whole thing. #xp
I am so happy for them. That sort of thing makes me warm all over. But they still made a terrible mistake targeting Paul-like people. Never do that. #xp

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Paul Kedrosky

Paul Kedrosky Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @pkedrosky

Feb 18
Early morning skate-skiing around frozen lakes in the alpine this morning. Lovely and quiet, but brutal aerobic effort. Going from sea level to 8,500 feet and then skating some miles is ... work.
Pic and elevation ImageImage
Btw, those dead trees are from volcanic C02 outgassing events, which come and go in this location, with disastrous tree consequences.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
The AI revolution in the workplace has only just begun, and people are already realizing who is supervising whom. wsj.com/articles/ai-ch… #xp Image
I had a conversation with an economist friend the other day, who argued that in the long run, automation creates more jobs than it displaces. Yes, historically this has been true, even if the N is small wrt macrocycles of automation. #xp
But job disruption tends to happen much faster than the creation of new jobs, which is, in part, what led to the textile mill riots and Ludditism in the 19th century. Job displacement on a much larger scale today in a more fragile society will be profoundly destabilizing. #xp
Read 4 tweets
Feb 16
Back when I was hanging at @KauffmanFDN writing things and making mouth noises I used to argue that some of the best markets for young companies weren't new ones, but existing ones where you can make it non-viable for incumbents. #xp
There are a bunch of reasons for this, not least of which is that when you make a financial ecology difficult, it changes the predation game, sometimes in your favor as a new company that can price or do things very differently. #xp
But the other reason isn't said enough, that it's _good_ when people are already spending gazillions on things, because then you don't have to convince them to spend more on something new. People and companies don't like to do that. #xp
Read 9 tweets
Jan 27
Heretical, but ... flat-rate pricing is what's destroying the ski industry, not algos. Resorts are overrun by people on season passes, resulting in massive lines. Dynamic pricing is one solution.

Arizona Ski Area Has the Priciest Lift Ticket at $300+ skimag.com/news/arizona-r…
Granted, resort skiing is a ridiculous, mass-affluence non-sport sport. I would be perfectly happy to have it eat itself, goaded on by flat-rate pricing, private equity owners, yield management algos, etc., so I'm admittedly an unreliable narrator here.
Failing that, we're likely to see more resorts eventually impose daily quotas, or even become private clubs, as is happening in various places. As I say too often, the physical world does not scale to digitally-aided and abetted appetites.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
I try not to say much about the current AI/chat mania, because it mostly makes me want to punch me in the face repeatedly, but I will say that I find monied tech bros' paeans to a post-AI UBI (universal basic income)... instructively stupid.
I mean:

1) We ran the experiment of paying people to stay at home and surf the Internet already, and the main byproducts were the Capitol riots, Qanon, and OnlyFans. Do it a second time and ... well, let's not.
2) If said bros think that people having jobs, even ones they hate, isn't essential to self-worth and societal stability, they need to read more widely in history and philosophy—but at least more than their diet of inbox pitches and wackaloon Substacks.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
Been messing with fitness watches, and ending up in my usual Paul Is Cheap mode of thinking, "Fk it, I'll just keep what I have". My current is a beat-up Fenix 6, and I'm a longtime Fenix user, dating back three versions. A quick summary of devices I've now messed with. #xp
Fenix 7
Pros: Touch screen, terrific battery life (14 days), and no scratches.
Cons: Not that much better than my Fenix 6, scratches aside
Epix 2
Pros: Touch screen, higher resolution screen, and no scratches
Cons: Ridiculous price, the screen is a bit whack in bright light, shorter battery life (6 days)
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(