Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Feb 18, 2023 9 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Eastern #Ukraine Update: #Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued ground attacks around #Bakhmut, in the Donetsk City-#Avdiivka area, and in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.🧵(1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar021723
2/ #Bakhmut sector:

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on #Bakhmut itself and near Fedorivka (20km north of Bakhmut), Rozdolivka (19km NE of Bakhmut), Paraskoviivka (9km north of Bakhmut), and Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut).
3/ Geolocated footage published on February 17 of a Ukrainian armored fighting vehicle firing at Russian positions in northeastern #Bakhmut shows Russian forces have made minor advances toward Bakhmut’s city center.
4/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner assault detachments advanced into Paraskoviivka from three sides on the night of February 16 and are engaging in heavy fighting around the settlement.
5/ Russian milbloggers offered conflicting claims on Wagner Group positions near #Ivanivske: one milblogger claimed that Wagner forces advanced to the outskirts of Ivanivske, while another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces pushed Wagner forces away from the highway.
6/ #Avdiivka-Donetsk City sector

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults along the outskirts of #Donetsk City near Sieverne and Vodyane (on the northwest outskirts) and Marinka and Novomykhailivka (on the southwestern outskirts).
7/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks on Vodyane, Novomykhailivka, and Pervomaiske (on the northwestern outskirts of #Donetsk city). Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces expanded their control within Marinka.
8/ Western #Donetsk Oblast:

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near #Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City).
9/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Novosilka (65km southwest of #Donetsk City) and Prechystivka (35km southwest of Donetsk City) and attempted to advance south and east of #Vuhledar. isw.pub/UkrWar021723

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Dec 11
NEW: Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.🧵(1/X)Image
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2/ Russian forces have advanced in western Novyi Trud and along the E50 highway south of Dachenske, narrowing the small pocket west of the E50 highway and south of the Novyi Trud-Dachenske line. This advance places Russian forces about 6km south of Pokrovsk. Image
3/ Russian forces will likely continue efforts to close the pocket between Novyi Trud and Dachenske in the coming days, as doing so will provide them a stronger position from which to assault Shevchenko (just northwest of Novyi Trud and southwest of Pokrovsk). Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 11
🧵(1/8)

Sentinel-2 imagery from Dec. 10 collected by @kromark shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. x.com/kromark/status… x.com/TheStudyofWar/…Image
2/ @MT_Anderson identified 4 Russian ships within this radius as of Dec. 10—the Adm. Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Adm. Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, & the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.
3/ Satellite imagery from December 9 indicated that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were in the same holding pattern as they are as of December 10.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 9
The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa. 🧵(1/5) Image
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2/ Russia has leveraged its Tartus naval base to project power in the Mediterranean Sea, threaten NATO's southern flank, and link its Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean Sea. Image
3/ The loss of Russian bases in Syria will likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts, and Africa Corps rotations, particularly weakening Russia’s operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. Image
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Read 5 tweets
Dec 5
NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2024: Mounting evidence continues to personally implicate Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials in the forced deportation and "re-education" of Ukrainian children in Russia. 1/6 Image
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2/ The US Department of State and Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab published a report on December 3 that states that Putin maintains primary control over and is the main decision-maker for Russia's deportation program.

Tonight's Report: isw.pub/UkrWar120424Image
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3/ Additional Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to posture Russian economic stability and growth while high interest rates and efforts to combat inflation suggest that the Kremlin is worried about economic stability in the long-term. Image
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 4
NEW: Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term.🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Satellite imagery from December 3 via @MT_Anderson showed that Russia removed three frigates, a submarine, and two unnamed auxiliary vessels from the base — amounting to all of the vessels that Russia had stationed at Tartus.
3/ Russia cannot redeploy these vessels to its Black Sea ports because Turkey is enforcing the Montreux Convention, which prevents Russian warships from passing through the Turkish Straits. Russia will likely therefore redeploy the vessels to its bases in NW Russia & Kaliningrad.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 2
NEW: Prominent voices within the Russian information space continue to emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine that results in anything less than total Ukrainian capitulation. (🧵1/5) Image
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2/ Kremlin-affiliated Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev told the Financial Times that Putin will likely reject any plan for peace negotiations that US President-elect Donald Trump puts forth unless the plan accounts for Russia's "security concerns."
3/ Malofeev claimed that the Kremlin will only consider peace negotiations with the new administration if Trump reverses the US policy allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range weapons to strike into Russia; "removes" Ukrainian President Zelensky from office...
Read 5 tweets

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