Seaver Wang Profile picture
Feb 18 11 tweets 4 min read
I wonder which one of us gives off the air of being more outraged at the moment? 🤣

For the record, all I did was call his article "amusing" and say it "quite spectacularly jumps the shark". Never attacked his character, yet the dude with 282100 followers leaps to ad hominem.
As most on #energytwitter can attest I'm actually quite nice to most folks + in person.

Let's just say I have good reasons to be critical of takes fired casually from the hip when it comes to E. Asia/geopolitics/climate/energy.

In which the best Noah can do on short notice is to desperately pull up presumably what was one of the first (dated) Google results, red-faced at having written an article on coal in China that didn't even mention the words "steel" or "cement".

This is somewhat off.

Cheap coal + state support unquestionably help, but competitive low-margins factories is partly legitimate technical/business success, has yielded dominance in sectors like solar. Not total malinvestment.

Silly highway projects, public works, and ranks upon ranks of empty apartment buildings are another matter, driving hefty steel + cement demand and thus coal.

This is one of the truly big areas of malinvestment, but Noah doesn't really mention it (or industry) in his piece.
I never said this was unique to China, thus it in no way implies that coal-dependent industry is waste.

Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India all face similar challenges.

China has perhaps gone a step further w the extent of coal chemicals + derived fuels though.

I agree any grand geopolitical bargains on climate are unrealistic.

But virtually nobody is talking about the hypothetical bargains Noah has conjured up from thin air here.

Most frame co-op as about climate summits, or cheap flows of solar/wind/🔋

Yes, China should maintain its coal reserves for the low-likelihood contingency in which it gets sent back to the iron age, so it can re-industrialize. Chinese civilization collapses from time to time, after all. My point stands /sarcasm

Overall, a very carefully selective defense from Noah, quietly + delicately dancing around a number of my other critiques, complete with acrobatics to claim that he was arguing some of my other points all along.

I'll just leave this passage up and let y'all judge for yourselves.
@Noahpinion 你说胡说八道之前先学一两件事可以吗?
Anyways I gotta go hiking tomorrow. Logging off and going to sleep.

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More from @wang_seaver

Feb 18
This article by @Noahpinion amused me.

It seeks to explain why China can't quit coal energy, and is adding renewables on top of coal rather than retiring coal.

But it's a surface-level, highly incomplete explanation. Here's what's missing.🧵

noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-must-s…
Noah's explanations for China's continued marriage to coal-fired energy are essentially as follows:

- addiction to low-quality investment to drive economic growth

- internal power politics that favor perpetuation of coal economy and the jobs/local econ activity it creates
Both correct! But he only scratches the tip of the iceberg. Here's what's missing:

1) Coal is inseparable from the heavy industry at the heart of both China's construction boom + for-export sectors. Real estate + megaprojects feed steel/cement demand synonomous with coal 🔥.
Read 22 tweets
Feb 16
In light of human rights issues associated with solar PV manufacturing in Xinjiang, what general principles should guide ethical diversification of the solar PV supply chain?

@juzel_lloyd and I have assembled a list of policy + industry recommendations.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
1. Diversify solar manufacturing by establishing new, alternative, responsible manufacturing capacity globally.

2. Establish strong standards for int’l solar markets + trade

3. Accelerate research, development, deployment of alternative solar tech + manufacturing approaches
1. Manufacturing a key low-CO2 energy technology is in public interest + warrants strong public sector support:
-keep existing diversified factories open
-manufacturing tax credits
-public loan guarantees
-factory investment tax credits
-public-private cost share
-subsidized ⚡️⚡️ Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 16
“It is time for the solar industry to accept that—if it is truly committed to ethically sourcing solar equipment—it will be easier to just go all-in on building new large manufacturing capacity outside China.”

In my latest essay I’m out of patience. 🧵

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
“You can’t fix what you can’t talk about. And if the climate community still can’t even talk meaningfully about Xinjiang, then it’s time to stop pretending the solar supply chain problem is anywhere close to being solved.”

See also, our recent report:

thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
First, in this piece, I critique the current response of many solar sector actors to forced labor risks in Xinjiang polysilicon plants: minimal, slow-moving tweaks to supply chains that avoid problematic factories, but maintain business ties with the corporations running them. Image
Read 22 tweets
Feb 8
I took some time to think on the provocative new @cpluscp report on lithium + transportation.

- demand reduction modeling overstates ability to avert near-term lithium demand
- thus key challenge today is articulating how to mine fairly + well at scale.

thebreakthrough.org/issues/infrast…
Valuable work by @triofrancos @ProfAKendall @kiram____ @BatulMH + co-authors. Really appreciate this quantitative approach to transit/lithium Qs.

I do think modeled max values for avoidable Li demand are aggressive due to scale of society changes assumed.
climateandcommunity.org/more-mobility-…
Overall, I support the mechanisms for change the @cpluscp report articulates: reduce mining needs by minimizing car dependence in denser urban design w good transit, and hold the mining sector accountable for enviro + social harms in lithium regions in Latin Am, American West
Read 25 tweets
Feb 8
Modern ships don't sink often and we already transport ammonia across oceans in dozens of ships at a given time.

But enough ships sink that safety might rule out ammonia from wide use in ocean vessels.

Even small accidents could be serious. 500ppm of NH3 in air can be lethal.
Figure above is from Oak Ridge National Lab's Spill Behavior, Detection, and Mitigation for Emerging Nontraditional Marine Fuels report:

maritime.dot.gov/sites/marad.do…
If I were a mariner, I'd much rather be in a collision/sinking on a nuclear-powered ship than on an ammonia-powered ship.

The risk equivalent of say ~7 chest CT scans is much preferable to ammonia inhalation.

(photo is of me on an oceanographic research cruise circa 2013)
Read 7 tweets
Jan 27
How many tons of minerals might new clean power generation require over the next 30 yrs? In producing those minerals, how much CO2 may be emitted?

Our new @Joule_CP paper is out today! [THREAD]

authors.elsevier.com/a/1gUwg925JENl…
This paper explored key questions:

Do enough minerals exist to transition to clean power? (Yes)
Will we blow the 1.5C CO2 budget to produce these materials? (No worries)
How much materials do we need? (A fair amount, it depends)
Do we need to mine more? (Yes, to varying degrees) Image
We investigated 75 different integrated assessment model runs in the @IIASAVienna 1.5C database. Looking at a range of models (2020-2050) that limit warming to 2C/1.5C, technology choices, energy pathways helps show what material demands are sensitive to.

data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-expl…
Read 27 tweets

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