🇫🇮PM Marin said in a presser at #MSC2023 that Europe’s response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was inadequate and too slow, Russia should have been isolated already then. Business as usual was a mistake and sanctions by far not hard enough.
Marin continues that we should’ve listened to our Baltic and Polish friends more closely because they had a more realistic assessment of Russia than many other European countries, including Finland.

Going forward, it’s important not to repeat the same mistakes as after 2014.
Marin also says Europe wouldn’t manage on its own and US military capacity is what gives NATO’s article 5 credibility. She also praised the bipartisan support for Ukraine in the US.

According to Marin, military aid to Ukraine is priority topic at all tables at #MSC2023
Marin also said she has talked with 🇪🇪PM Kaja Kallas and 🇪🇺 Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about an EU initiative to ramp up production in European arms industry, to keep aid flowing to Ukraine and to replenish own stocks.
It’s good to recognise Europe’s dependence on the US, which has become painfully evident in the respective responses to Russia’s war against Ukraine. But it’s also important to take action to make Europe more resilient.

European strategic autonomy is a very distant aspiration

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More from @minna_alander

Feb 19
A main difference in European approaches toward Russia is the question which world war the current situation is compared to: France and Germany have tended to think of WWI/ Germany after Versailles while NCEE countries see more parallels to WWII/ nazi Germany
Obviously, the conclusions drawn on how to deal with Russia after this war are very different, depending on the world war one takes as comparison.
Another problem is often that people advocating for some kind of accommodation of Russia as the only way to prevent future resentment and renewed aggression overlook that there has been no shortage of negotiations and treaties with and reaching out to Russia in the past 30 years.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
🇫🇮 President Niinistö says at a presser at #MSC2023 that the German claims that Finland would be backtracking from the leopard coalition are not true.

🇫🇮 is part of building the “weapons arrangement”. Yesterday Niinistö also said that Finland won’t be “on the sidelines” in this
This is prob as clear as it’ll ever get - Niinistö is infamous for being cryptic and it’s been the 🇫🇮 approach to weapons deliveries to Ukraine never to give details.

Niinistö had talked with Scholz today but said that Scholz had not expressed any particular requests re: leos
*in Finnish Niinistö said “asekokonaisuus”, maybe a better translation would be “full range of weaponry” but it’s hard to translate - anyways it makes clear that it’s about the weapons system and not only about training, maintenance, logistics etc.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
Reports are mounting esp in 🇩🇪 press that after having finally decided to supply leopard tanks to Ukraine, Germany has now been abandoned by countries that had signalled willingness to contribute their part.

I did some research to find out what’s up with 🇳🇱🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮
The Netherlands doesn’t have any own leopards but leases 18 from Germany.

PM Mark Rutte had suggested that 🇳🇱 could buy the 18 tanks from 🇩🇪 & deliver to 🇺🇦. However, after consultations with 🇩🇪, it was decided that the leopards for 🇺🇦 should not come from the 🇩🇪🇳🇱 battalion
Part of the perception that the Netherlands is one of the drivers of the leopard initiative is that the Dutch (both citizens & politicians) are very supportive what comes to military aid to 🇺🇦 and it’s politically pretty much a non-issue.

However, 🇳🇱 doesn’t have much to give.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 17
One year ago, a staggering amount of military analysis got both Russia and Ukraine wrong. An important reason for it was that analysis based on counting equipment and looking at (scripted) exercises misses one crucial point: the human element.
If you don’t pay attention to

1) what number of people are available to operate the equipment (see Sweden: lots of jets but not enough pilots)
2) what is their skill level (see Bundeswehr’s puma incident where malfunction of the equipment was partly due to lacking know-how)
3) their motivation: the role of willingness to defend (i.e. motivation to fight)

you’re bound to get the military capability of a country wrong because the number of equipment alone doesn’t tell you the whole story.

Not to even get started about maintenance & logistics
Read 11 tweets
Feb 17
Bundeswehr-chief Zorn @BundeswehrGI is impressed with the Ukrainian soldiers he has met while they’re training in Germany and believes that Ukraine can keep the initiative even against the odds.

He also says that Ukraine must win. 👏👏

🇩🇪🤝🇺🇦
I hope he can convince Scholz to say the same. Scholz’ reluctance to say Ukraine must win (instead of “not lose”) is probably because then he would have to define a 🇺🇦 victory - which includes the question of Crimea.

Full Interview here:
welt.de/politik/deutsc…
This comes a long way from an interview in September when General Zorn didn’t see a real counteroffensive in Ukraine (while it was in fact in full swing) and suggested that Russia might open a second front at the Finnish border, among other locations.

amp.focus.de/politik/auslan…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 14
Big news today in Finland & Sweden: Finnish parliamentarians informed their Swedish colleagues during a visit that Finland will start drafting the required laws for NATO accession, making it more likely that 🇫🇮 would become member without 🇸🇪 if 🇹🇷&🇭🇺 ratify separately
This comes after NATO GenSec Jens Stoltenberg said today that it’s not so important whether 🇫🇮&🇸🇪 enter the Alliance at the same time, but that they become members asap. This marks a change in tone

on.ft.com/3k0RS5h
However, 🇫🇮 parliament’s foreign affairs committee’s chairperson Jussi Halla-Aho said that there is no unanimous answer within the committee to the question how Finland would proceed in case it was ratified without Sweden
hs.fi/politiikka/art…
Read 12 tweets

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