(1/5) A Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) - defined as a reversal of the zonal mean winds from westerly to easterly at 10 Hpa (~20 miles above the ground) and 60°N - occurred on February 16th. Another SSWE is expected in late Feb/early Mar..
(2/5) The SSWE is "displacing" the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) off the North Pole and onto the Eurasian side of the globe, and it is forecast to remain there into at least early March. SSWEs often increase, but don't guarantee, the likelihood of colder and snowier weather..
(3/5) An SSWE in Feb. 2018 caused the SPV to "split," with the primary lobe settling over North America & contributing to the onslaught of winter storms in the Northeast during March/April 2018. It often takes 2-3 weeks for SSWEs to begin affecting large-scale weather patterns..
(4/5) However, other factors.. such as tropical forcing and high-latitude blocking patterns.. play a role and can amplify or dampen the effects of an SSWE. So, what does all this mean for snow-lovers in the mid-Atlantic's I-95/I-81 corridors during March? In short, uncertainty..
(5/5) Much is unknown about SSWEs, but they can alter the #JETSTREAM for weeks or even months. For now, I envision a 1-2 week window for snow sometime between Feb. 28 - Mar. 20.. but this is just an "educated guess." Plots courtesy @ECMWF, @TropicalTidbits, & @burgwx. #developing
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(1/4) Here we go, weather fans! The moment you've all been waiting for has finally arrived: my 2022-2023 Winter Outlook! Two primary winter-season influences will be our third-year, "triple-dip" La Nina and "warm blob" to the north/east of Australia..
(2/4) The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) should be most active in phases 4-7 this winter. Although these phases typically mean milder conditions in the eastern U.S. during the 2nd half of winter, they support periods of high-latitude (NAO/AO) blocking from Dec. through mid-Jan..
(3/4) Overall, this winter will feature several "changeover" storms and a reduced risk of a major Nor'easter. Aggregate temps. should be slightly above normal (+0-2°F) but with snowfall a bit below normal (15-25"). The coldest periods will likely occur between Dec. 15-Jan. 15..
1/5 Sleet & frz. rain will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between ~ 10 p.m. and midnight. Temps. will be within a degree or two of freezing for much of the night, and roadway temps. are still above freezing following the recently warmth..
2/5 I'm expecting a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch of frz. rain to the south of the PA Turnpike & east of Route 15.. with 0.10-0.25" of ice in areas farther north & west. The greatest chance of 0.25" of ice will be north/west of the I-81/78 corridors..
3/5 These expected ice amounts are with respect to trees & power lines. Primary roadways should generally remain wet, but secondary, untreated roads will turn icy overnight. Temps. will slowly rise above freezing from south-to-north btw. 4 & 8 a.m., causing ice to turn to rain..