Back from @MunSecConf 2023. Always interesting, but this year more important than ever. A few observations:
For me, the theme of the conference was ‘getting the global south on board re our stance on Russia’. #Macron was the first speaker to make the point in detail, but it was also a major element of Kamala Harris’ speech, Stoltenberg, Marin and others equally emphasised it.
There is a realisation that other states don’t care as much about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the west thinks they should. That this invasion & its war crimes are a breach of int. law that cannot stand is an argument western countries will need to make more convincingly.
That the west struggles to make this argument is most likely also a reflection of its relative decline in power. #msc2023
Another theme was western unity (which is always an msc topic, but this time it had much more urgency). On the big stage, the message was, we are united, and we are united in our support to Ukraine. On the smaller stages…
…and in the hallways, some more fissures emerged, which, I believe, will become more of an issue once this was ends (hopefully soon).
I am in particular thinking of the topic of EU accession of Ukraine - see thread below - but there are others.
The US Inflation Reduction Act, possible political changes in the US, and the details of the weapons deliveries are other examples.
A topic that was not as prominent in the conversations I followed (but, important: at msc there are many things happening at the same time, and you by definition miss things!) was China.
The speech and answers from Wang Yi were much much clearer than I had ever heard from a Chinese official (I am not a China expert, so prob not that surprising). Thread below 👇
Boris Pistorius, the new German defence minister made a good first impression, something I also heard several times from non-Germans. Everybody is hoping that he can deliver. #msc2023
.@MunSecConf & @LisaMUllrich made an effort to have 50% women on the panels, and it really showed and made the conference better. #msc2023
This is my collection of random observations from #msc2023. What makes the conference great on a personal level, is all the great people you get to meet/catch up with. Like the @Sicherheitspod crew. 😊
And talking about Sicherheitshalber: for the German-speakers, here is our Nachlese with @ClaudMajor 👇
Quite the grand statement “Any increase in China’s strength is an increase in the hope of peace for humanity.” - Wang Yi
Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, People's Republic of China, #msc2023
*Very* univocal statement by Wang Yi on #balloongate: civilian balloon which veered off course. US response was “absurd and hysterical”, “100% abuse of the use of force”. “We do not accept this.” US reaction “does not show that US is strong, on the contrary it shows the opposite”
Shooting down the balloon was “preposterous”, an action “to divert attention from US domestic problems”.
No room for interpretation here. #msc2023
Olaf Scholz now speaking at #msc2023
“We are delivering more than any other country on the European continent. We are stepping up to our responsibility.”
“It is not our weapons deliveries that are prolonging the war.” - Scholz at #msc2023
Scholz: “Germany will raise the German defence budget to 2%.” Immediate reaction on the tribune: “when?”. #msc2023
@manta_greg@MaximuClaudius@Wieseli3 Puh, wenn ich diesen süffisant ätzenden Tweet früher gesehen hätte, hätte ich Ihnen grade nicht so ausführlich geantwortet. Erstens habe ich Ihre Replik auf den Ecfr Plan nicht gesehen (es gibt keine “ECFR Plan” aber das führt jetzt zu weit).
@manta_greg@MaximuClaudius@Wieseli3 Zweitens, selbst wenn schulde ich Ihnen keine Antwort - ich kenn Sie nicht?! Drittens, warum soll ich mich zu nem Artikel äußern, den ich nicht geschrieben hab? Als der rauskam, war ich sogar noch in Elternzeit.
@manta_greg@MaximuClaudius@Wieseli3 Viertens ist mein Kritikpunkt der, dass das Mantra “keine Alleingänge” zur Farce wurde, als Partner lieferten oder gesagt haben sie wollen liefern. Das ist richtig. Weswegen ich den Anfang des threads hab stehen lassen.
I am happy when there is support for government policies. But the way how some German media atm is helping push Scholz’s narrative of a “besonnen und abgestimmt” approach in face of criticism when this was NEVER WHAT HE WAS CRITICISED FOR! is baffling.
German WDR5 radio this weekend; “it was Scholz’s mantra ‘no German Alleingang’ - and for this he had to face a lot of criticism”. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? NO ONE criticised Scholz for wanting to work with allies. On the contrary.
All proposals on Leopards were always about coalitions. Scholz was criticised bc *he kept saying this when there were lots of allies wanting to go forward*.
I’m not doing interviews today - mainly as I wanna spend time with 👶 - but also because I want to make sure I have all the information before commenting.
Some clearly don’t share that concern… here’s a quick list of incorrect statements I’ve heard today on the #Leopard deal.
No, German support for Ukraine hasn’t been “modest” (French radio).
Germany is the third (fourth if you count EU institutions) provider of aid, including military aid.
No, the German government didn’t change (or break) a law which forbids the export of weapons into war zones. There is a self-imposed rule not to do that - but it has an exception for a self-defence war under article 51 UN charter.
Rheinmetall chairman Papperger at #hbsicherheit: “Germany has more military industrial capacities* than the US (?), but we cannot produce without orders. And we don’t have orders.”
*speaking about artillery ammunition, not sure whether he was referring specifically to that.
Good point by @ClaudMajor : “the Gepard deliveries were technically an ‘Alleingang’ (going at it alone). And a good one!”