ICYMI in April: this is a must-read for all interested in geopolitics as it lays out one of the clearest cases for ‘the US must win against China’ (and how)

No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed foreignaffairs.com/united-states/… The authors aren’t anybody.

Given what a kafkaesque (and expensive !!!) experience it has been to get a German passport for a fully-German-two-German-parents-kid I can’t even imagine what that looks like for immigrants 🫣 My favourite moment (there were many) was when they went “you can have a passport for [not-the-correct-name] now if you like”.
They were seriously offering to give the kid a passport *with the wrong name* because that worked better with their processes.

Back from #LennartMeriConference
As always, it was highly insightful.

A few quotes I heard over the last two days that stuck with me: 🧵 The most powerful:

“I have two sons, whom I love dearly. The outcome of this war will decide whether they will have to fight in war in the future.”

#LennartMeriConference

I read Germany’s new national security strategy so you don’t have to.
(Though, it’s not a terrible read, so don’t let me keep you).
Thread with some thoughts and main points according to, well, me.
#Sicherheitsstrategie First the tldr: it’s s fine.
It says the right things, in the right tones. Nothing major was forgotten, nothing major gotten wrong (biggest bone of contention, imo, is 🇨🇳 and “multipolarity” ). It, however, also doesn’t really say anything particularly surprising or substantial.

Today is the day: Germany is getting its very first national security strategy. I’ll follow the press conference at 11am and will let you know when we know more about its super secret* content.

*the strategy has been kept under close wraps.

I told myself to stay out of this one, but I can't help myself, so here a few thoughts on the #Macron interview. First, as many have pointed out, if you want to engage in the discussion, read the Les Echos interview, rather than the article with quotes from Politico.
lesechos.fr/monde/enjeux-i…

Mhm. I find that headline a bit odd. Like, maybe it’s more explicit than before, and it’s the first time in a national security strategy- but that’s because it’s the first nat security strategy.

https://twitter.com/politicoeurope/status/1636397073217073153

The coalition agreement 2021 says “we want that Germany… fulfills its NATO promises”.

AFP reports an incident between a US #drone and a Russian jet over the Black Sea.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1635686089594744835

Oh. Looks like the Russian jet took the US Reaper #drone down.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1635685779639873540

Back from @MunSecConf 2023. Always interesting, but this year more important than ever. A few observations: For me, the theme of the conference was ‘getting the global south on board re our stance on Russia’. #Macron was the first speaker to make the point in detail, but it was also a major element of Kamala Harris’ speech, Stoltenberg, Marin and others equally emphasised it.

Quite the grand statement “Any increase in China’s strength is an increase in the hope of peace for humanity.” - Wang Yi
Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, People's Republic of China, #msc2023 *Very* univocal statement by Wang Yi on #balloongate: civilian balloon which veered off course. US response was “absurd and hysterical”, “100% abuse of the use of force”. “We do not accept this.” US reaction “does not show that US is strong, on the contrary it shows the opposite”

Olaf Scholz now speaking at #msc2023
“We are delivering more than any other country on the European continent. We are stepping up to our responsibility.” “It is not our weapons deliveries that are prolonging the war.” - Scholz at #msc2023

@manta_greg @MaximuClaudius @Wieseli3 Puh, wenn ich diesen süffisant ätzenden Tweet früher gesehen hätte, hätte ich Ihnen grade nicht so ausführlich geantwortet. Erstens habe ich Ihre Replik auf den Ecfr Plan nicht gesehen (es gibt keine “ECFR Plan” aber das führt jetzt zu weit). @manta_greg @MaximuClaudius @Wieseli3 Zweitens, selbst wenn schulde ich Ihnen keine Antwort - ich kenn Sie nicht?! Drittens, warum soll ich mich zu nem Artikel äußern, den ich nicht geschrieben hab? Als der rauskam, war ich sogar noch in Elternzeit.

I am happy when there is support for government policies. But the way how some German media atm is helping push Scholz’s narrative of a “besonnen und abgestimmt” approach in face of criticism when this was NEVER WHAT HE WAS CRITICISED FOR! is baffling. German WDR5 radio this weekend; “it was Scholz’s mantra ‘no German Alleingang’ - and for this he had to face a lot of criticism”. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? NO ONE criticised Scholz for wanting to work with allies. On the contrary.

I’m not doing interviews today - mainly as I wanna spend time with 👶 - but also because I want to make sure I have all the information before commenting.
Some clearly don’t share that concern… here’s a quick list of incorrect statements I’ve heard today on the #Leopard deal. No, German support for Ukraine hasn’t been “modest” (French radio).
Germany is the third (fourth if you count EU institutions) provider of aid, including military aid.

Kick-off at #hbsicherheit Handelsblatt Sicherheitskonferenz with @tobiaslindner Rheinmetall chairman Papperger at #hbsicherheit: “Germany has more military industrial capacities* than the US (?), but we cannot produce without orders. And we don’t have orders.”

*speaking about artillery ammunition, not sure whether he was referring specifically to that.

On 27 February, Olaf Scholz held his famous #Zeitenwende speech. More than ten months have passed since then. What’s the verdict? Have times turned in German defence and security policy? My assessment of where we are at the moment - the good, the bad, and the ugly.
(thread) The good:
1) German support for Ukraine.
Yes, despite all criticism, German support for Ukraine, financially but also militarily has been substantial and important.

Oha.
Bild reports exclusively that German defence minister Christine Lambrecht is planning to resign.
If that’s true, I’d say today’s Spiegel story was the straw that broke the camel’s back. bild.de/politik/inland… Btw, I have an article coming out tomorrow at 9am which mentions her as defence minister, so I hope she’s not resigning tonight.

Illustration of ⁦@derspiegel⁩ title story this week.
#Bundeswehr Story.
#Zeitenwende
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding in the German debate about offence and defence (Angriff und Verteidigung), which explains some strange takes.
Short 🧵 Early on we had discussions about offensive and defensive weapons, and now, with the #Leopard2 combat tank discussion we hear again how Ukrainian defence is fine, but offence we (Germany/the west) cannot support.

This is so unbearably tone-deaf. “There is war in Europe” - so I am standing in the middle of new year’s fireworks going off. Boom.

“There is war in Europe … for me this meant meeting some great people”.

Have they lost their mind in Berlin? Most of the time when there are political communication disasters, one can see the intention (which went wrong). But this, from the setting, to the text and message, to the sound, is a catastrophe. With no good will can I come up with what they were trying to achieve.
#Lambrecht

I cannot believe that 9months into this war I have to listen to a German journalist monologuing how “we need to negotiate,weapons deliveries are important but we need to give diplomacy a chance” and he doesn’t get ONE QUESTION as to who he thinks should negotiate & about what?!🤯 Of - fucking - course diplomacy is important and of - fucking - course it would be better to talk rather than fight but who does he think could make this happen? Unbelievable that these banal and trite statements don’t get pushback.