My key #MSC2023 moment.
Asked by @ischinger to reassure audience military escalation over Taiwan not imminent Wang Yi chose to reassure audience that Taiwan is part of 🇨🇳territory while launching diatribe against Taiwan „separatists“.
No word on preference for peace.
Beijing‘s aggressive stance will likely be central topic of MSCs in years to come. All the more essential for Taiwan, US, Europe & allies to urgently invest in effective deterrence to try to prevent Beijing from using force to change status quo.
This for me was also lesson from excellent simulation exercise orchestrated by @DAlperovitch @SilveradoPolicy.
Conclusion from this for me is of course not that conflict is imminent but that tensions will be with us in years to come and that Europeans (mostly focused on Russia’s war right now) need to give more attention to this including need for deterrence (and of course guardrails).
Bonnie Glaser makes important point here on centrality of domestic audience. Wang Yi had a choice which exact words to use. That he chose to phrase it exactly this way (rather than including other language of preference for peaceful resolution) I did find noteworthy.

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More from @thorstenbenner

Feb 20
"Vortäuschen von Vermittlungs- und Friedensinitiativen".
Hans Monath hat sich mit @ajwsmall & mir über die Positionierung Chinas mit Blick auf den Angriffskrieg der Nuklearmacht Rußland gegen die Ukraine unterhalten. Meine zentralen Punkte im 🧵
tagesspiegel.de/internationale…
China steht schon jetzt im Krieg fest an der Seite Moskaus. Das liegt nicht an Pekings Enthusiasmus für Rußlands Krieg, sondern daran, dass die chinesische Führung alles aus dem Blickwinkel des Kampfes mit den USA sieht.
Und da ist es wichtig, Peking als Juniorpartner langfristig an der Seite zu haben. Insofern investiert Peking in die politische, wirtschaftliche und auch militärische Stärkung der vor gut einem Jahr bei den Olympischen Spielen in Peking von Putin und Xi zelebrierten Entente.
Read 17 tweets
Jan 28
This is the aspect that in my view needs to guide the debate in Germany much more -- and Scholz's Zeitenwende should be measured by the degree he draws the necessary consequences from this.
I wouldn't have made different call on risk trade-offs but I find it plausible that Scholz regards Germany as extremely vulnerable and weak militarily at the moment and therefore insisted on maximum US reinsurance. But it's clear this won't be an option for much longer.
And rather than regarding maximum US reinsurance due to German weakness as SOP, we need to be clear that this may not be available in future since future US (even in best case) won't do what Biden did responding to Scholz's plea.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 27
"Scholz jedoch gab intern eine Prognose aus: Biden habe ihn verstanden. Es gebe historische Momente, in denen sich echte Staatsmänner über ihre Apparate hinwegsetzten würden; dies sei so einer".
@robinalexander_ s Rekonstruktion wie immer lesenswert.
"Scholz behielt recht. Doch erst nach ein paar Tagen. So lange hatten eine seltsame Allianz von amerikanischen Panzerskeptikern und europäischen Panzerfreunden Zeit für einen Versuch, Scholz weichzukochen: Würde er umfallen und doch noch einseitig liefern?"
Und das heißt nicht, das die Alternative (Deutschland schmiedet europäische Allianz für Panzerlieferungen, insistiert nicht auf Gleichschritt mit Abrams) falsch gewesen wäre. Ich hielt und halte das für plausibles Vorgehen und auch in der Abwägung nicht für zu riskant.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
80% of Germans say it is more important to end the war quickly with negotiations than for 🇺🇦to win, while only 18% disagree, according to a representative Forsa poll released Thursday.

Crucial feature of 🇩🇪public opinon --and harder to overturn than opinion on weapons systems.
And of course weakness of this line of questioning is that „Ukrainian victory“ and nature of negotiated settlement are left undefined.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 25
Scholz asked to explain himself by ZDF. Says it would have been “irresponsible” & “dangerous” not to have done this without “most important ally” US.
Asked about Garton Ash he says “translation of Scholzing is Germany does the most” & that citizens want leader with strong nerves. Image
What precisely Scholz’ concerns were in terms of risks he doesn’t elaborate although he is asked twice. As expected we see a self-confident Scholz and learn little about the detailed concerns that guided him.
Based on „Scholz entourage“ @SZ interprets insistence on tank tandem with US as maximum reinsurance based on
a) Scholz realization that 🇩🇪is weak militarily. „Doesn‘t have nuclear weapons and not a lot of tanks and functioning air defense either“. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 22
US administration sources make public via @sz that Llyod Austin had "fierce exchange of words" with head of chancellory @W_Schmidt_ & that Sullivan "read riot act" to Scholz' national security advisor Plötner for putting conditions on Leopard transfer.
sueddeutsche.de/politik/kampfp…
This sounds like a deliberate effort to undercut narrative "Scholz & Biden are fully aligned on support for 🇺🇦" & to make it clear that Biden administration expects Scholz to move on US terms rather than him setting conditions publicly (which surprised Austin on way to Berlin).
Chancellory issues categorical denial of US sourced @sz report on Austin & Sullivan talks with Schmidt & Plötner.
„Reports are inaccurate regarding both tone & substance“, @gebauerspon reports.
Read 4 tweets

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