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Tara Moriarty

Feb 20 • 33 tweets • 14 min read

The Feb 19-25 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NB, NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, MB, ON
HIGH: NL, PEI, QC, SK
ELEVATED: AB, North

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. New surge/wave has started in multiple provinces.

Here's the link to the folder where you can find downloadable png and jpeg versions of all our graphics.

Shortform graphics are available in English et en francais.

Longform en francais a venir.

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…

Here's the link to our full weekly Canadian COVID data report: covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

And here's where you can sign up to join any of our free, evening, anonymous (if you want) Zoom sessions.

Remember: No question is too small. No question is silly. YOU matter, and we're here to provide support.

covid19resources.ca/discussions/

Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.

Why? Because waste water data are nearly 2 weeks old, but had started increasing in multiple places. Most Canadian provinces are likely now in or will soon enter a surge.

A key concern is that we're seeing increasing ICU admissions in the most recent 2 weeks of data compared to the preceding 2 weeks.

This is happening in multiple provinces, and in some it's quite a fast increase.

So, prudence is definitely warranted right now.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

@CDCgov

From @CDCgov:

About 1 in 5 adults have a health condition that might be related to their previous COVID-19 illness.

The best way to protect from long-lasting COVID symptoms is not getting COVID, and/or not getting it again.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH

About 1 in every 103 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH

About 1 in every 103 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~2X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~8X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 106 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 106 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~10X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 31 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 47 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

About 1 in every 47 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

QUEBEC

HIGH

About 1 in every 46 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

QUEBEC

HIGH

About 1 in every 47 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 34 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 34 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~9X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 76 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

MANITOBA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 76 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

HIGH

About 1 in every 84 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

HIGH

About 1 in every 84 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~10X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 70 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 70 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths: similar to lowest point

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 50 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 50 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~7X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 77 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings

Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 19-25, 2023

NUV, NWT, YT

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 77 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~6X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher

That's all folks.

I'm off to share this on Mastodon, then back to paper and grant writing.

Will check in again this evening.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Feb 19

Seeking help from scientists, journalists anyone who may have been archiving COVID-19 epidemiologic reports for Nova Scotia PRE-March 30, 2022.

If these exist and you have copies/know where to find them, please let me know.

We're writing a paper on provincial reporting of severe outcomes over the COVID pandemic, and want to make sure our coverage for Nova Scotia includes these reports, in addition to reporting from other official sources and Canadian Critical Care Society.

@PeterCBC

We're also seeking any official reports we can find for Newfoundland and Labrador, in particular reports that document the numbers of cumulative hospital and ICU admissions by specific dates. Not hopeful about finding more NL sources, in addition to @PeterCBC and journalists.

Read 6 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Feb 12

The Feb 12-18 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, NB, ON, SK
HIGH: MB, NL, North, PEI
ELEVATED: AB, QC

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected, with surge expected over next 1-2 weeks.

Here's the link where you can download png and jpeg versions of all graphics:
drive.google.com/drive/folders/…

@INSPQ

Recommendations this week are still cautious, even for regions where the forecast is currently ELEVATED or HIGH.

Why? Because @INSPQ survey of RAT/PCR+ people for week of Feb 5 found 69% increase compared to week before. It's often the first indicator to go up at start of surges

Read 39 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Feb 10

Thread: excess mortality and COVID death reporting in Canada during COVID

All Canadian Excess Mortality Tracker data and graphs available here: covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…

The graphs I'll show are a bit complicated. But they're simplified versions of what you can find on the tracker, because I've deselected % excess mortality for individual age groups to make it easier to see patterns.

This graph here shows the data for fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC), with a comparison to the values for Canada as a whole (including the slow-reporting provinces).

Read 141 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Feb 8

@INSPQ

For the last year, I've found that positive test (RAT or PCR) survey data from @INSPQ have provided the fastest early warning indicator of new waves.

QC test positivity in survey ending Feb 5 increased 64% compared to week before.

It had declined from Dec 25 to Feb 5.

@INSPQ

@INSPQ It's still only at half the infection numbers from the week of Dec 25 (the highest point in the most recent surge in QC), but if we've seen a 64% increase in the most recent week, I'd guess QC will be at the height of the Dec 25 surge by the week after.

@INSPQ

@INSPQ Link to INSPQ page: inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donne…

Read 15 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Feb 7

@JustinTrudeau

@JustinTrudeau it would be great if one of the strings attached to funding is timely, complete reporting of COVID data by provinces to @GovCanHealth .

As of today, 72,176 COVID hospitalizations up to March 31, 2022 have not yet been reported to PHAC.

Yes, 2022. Not a typo.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1623062138397814791

@JustinTrudeau

@JustinTrudeau @GovCanHealth One third of Canada's 215,000 COVID hospitalizations up to March 31, 2022 have not yet been reported to PHAC.

And there is some serious under-reporting of severe COVID outcomes happening in multiple provinces, including Canada's largest province.

@JustinTrudeau

@JustinTrudeau @GovCanHealth Plus all-cause mortality reporting so slow that we're only now learning specific causes of death from 2021, including but not limited to COVID.

Read 15 tweets

Tara Moriarty

@MoriartyLab

Feb 5

The Feb 5-11 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, NL, North, ON, SK
HIGH: NB, PEI
ELEVATED: AB, MB, QC

All but SK decreasing (SK increasing)

About 1 in 46 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…

Apologies for missing a week last week--it was my fault, not the team!

For the weekly recommendations we provide, we're still using recommendations for VERY HIGH and SEVERE scores even for regions that have dropped below these thresholds.

Why? Because the projections we do are based on data that is already nearly 2 weeks old d/t reporting delays.

Read 35 tweets

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