Thread by @kevinbonham

#Morgan NSW (state) 52-48 to Labor

L-NP 35 ALP 32.5 Grn 9.5 ON 6.5 SFF 1.5 AJP 1.5 LC 1.0 LDP 0.5 Teal 0.5 others 11.5

I estimate 51-49 to Labor (bit hard because of high unspecified Others vote which is probably a glorified dunno.)

Teh Narrowing!

#nswvotes

Again the Morgan data is not that recent (it's from January, so about the same vintage as YouGov 56 and Resolve which I had at 54.7.) And Morgan's ALP primary estimates are low cf other polls.

An issue with this Morgan and 2PPs is it has One Nation on the readout everywhere but they've only announced in a relatively small list of seats to this point. So doing preferences off those votes is tricky because many of those voters may actually vote 1 for someone else

This is an OPV specific issue. If ON don't run widely then a lot of voters who would be modelled as exhausting their vote will actually vote for a major party.

Report here an example of the problems caused by Morgan taking so long to release data.

dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/state…

"Voters are increasingly supported [sic] Premier Dominic Perrottet" - well perhaps they were in January if you believe this poll but if you believe YouGov taken around the same time but released a month ago then they were not. Media should report stale polling in past tense.

My average of the January NSW polls is Labor ahead 53.9-46.1 - very little doubt that they were winning at that stage but iffy in terms of a majority.