Thread by @Aaron_Derfel

1) Breaking: Quebec may be on the verge of a new wave of #COVID infections, driven by the ultra-contagious Kraken subvariant that is now predominant in the province, according to the latest data by public health authorities. In this thread, I will examine what this could mean.

2) Quebec on Wednesday reported a surge of 33 hospitalizations with and for #COVID, a day after posting a modest increase of only two such hospitalizations. Obviously, a two-day rise does not a trend make, but it's worth examining this situation in a larger context.

3) As my La Presse colleague @PaNormandin pointed out this afternoon, hospitalizations directly for #COVID have increased by 12% in a week. Please take a look at the La Presse chart below showing the salmon-colored section beginning to rise.

4) This rise in hospitalizations for #COVID follows an increase in wastewater samples of SARS-CoV-2, the constantly mutating coronavirus that has killed nearly 18,100 people in Quebec in the past three years. Please review the chart below showing a resurgence for all of Quebec.

5) Given the rapid spread in Quebec of Kraken, or XBB.1.5, displacing the Omicron subvariant BQ.1.1, it's not surprising that #COVID hospitalizations may be on the rise. We'll have to wait a few more days to know definitely one way or the other.

6) Perhaps Quebec might be spared a new wave of COVID hospitalizations. Perhaps the wave may turn out to be — to borrow a phrase of Dr. Luc Boileau, chief of public health — a mere wavelet. Regardless, such hospitalizations continue to place hospitals under enormous strain.

7) This is what a Montreal ER source told me tonight in response to my question: Are you still getting COVID patients?

"Yes. Not many, but yes. They complicate things because they must be isolated. That's very hard to do."

8) The continuing presence of COVID patients in ERs is contributing to overcrowding. The chart below shows that on Wednesday night, Jewish General Hospital's ER was filled to 217% capacity, followed by Lakeshore General at 200%. Pediatric Sainte-Justine was also packed.

9) "Nobody obeys the N95 protocol anymore," the source told me about their ER colleagues. "Most of the staff have their masks half off for most of their shift, and it's those shitty surgical masks."

10) COVID's continuing presence in Quebec will also make it much more difficult to whittle down the record backlog of surgeries, as I wrote about last week in the @mtlgazette. This is the price we pay for collective apathy in a #pandemic. End of thread.

montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/pa…

ADDENDUM: Quebec on Thursday posted an increase of 11 #COVID hospitalizations, the third rise in as many days. Still, I caution that we'll need to wait a few more days to confirm whether this is, indeed, a new wave.